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In honor of the opening of the month-long 1995 Review Conference on the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) in New York this week, here is a proliferation update. Regular readers of this column have seen nuclear proliferation discussed on previous occasions. If anyone is a bit more paranoid for the experience, "Global safari" has served its purpose.
Islamic fundamentalism has replaced communism as the new ideological threat facing the West. Islam in and of itself is not a problem. Politics in the Middle East, however, are inseparable from religion, and fundamentalism drives hostile anti-Western activity. The growing strength of fundamentalist movements in Egypt and Turkey indicates that these states may be lost to Islamic fundamentalism in the near future. The United States must work to prevent such a disaster, even at the expense of democracy.
The United States and China are currently engaged in a serious conflict over intellectual property rights.
Last month, Croatian President Franjo Tudjman declared that as of March 31 of this year the mandate for the United Nations Protection Force (UNPROFOR) operating in Croatia will be void and that its troops must be withdrawn by the end of June. Some 12,000 United Nations soldiers have been deployed in Croatia since a January 1992 cease-fire ended six months of bloody fighting between Croatia and Serb elements following Croatia's secession from Yugoslavia.
Though Iran is a signatory of the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Iranians are continuing the Shah's efforts to build a nuclear weapon. According to John Hollum, head of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, Iran will have a deployable weapon within the next 10 years. The timetable will be accelerated, however, if the Iranians can secure outside assistance. Reports indicate that Iran has received scientific aid and technology from sources in the former Soviet Union, China and North Korea. Thus, Iran may be able to assemble a workable nuclear weapon in four or five years. The United States needs to move fast if it is to prevent this disaster.
"Whether UNAMIR [United Nations Assistance Mission In Rwanda] can prevent a new outbreak of fighting is questionable, and recent violence in Burundi indicates that the region is far from stable. . .Can 2,500 blue-helmeted troops stop people from hacking each other up with machetes? We shall see." --Global Safari, Nov. 5, 1994.
As a presidential candidate, Bill Clinton accused George Bush of "coddling dictators" in Beijing by continuing to grant China most favored nation trade status despite its poor record on human rights. Soon after taking office, however, Clinton changed his mind and decided that MFN status should not be revoked given the importance of China, specifically to the U.S. economy.
The recent discover that Central Intelligence Agency counter-intelligence officer Aldrich Ames was a mole for the KGB has refocused attention on the future of the United States/Russia relations. That Russia is still spying on the United States should be no surprise. Indeed, even America's allies, including Israel and France, have spied on it. The CIA still spies on Russia, as the need for good information on a host of issues from nuclear posture to political climate is required for American leaders to make decisions. Events in Russia, however, indicate that the future of American relations with Russia is in jeopardy as economic and political reforms have not fully materialized.
Last October, Global Safari raised the possibility that Japan is pursuing a nuclear weapons project, motivated in part by North Korea's own nuclear program. The conclusions--Japan is stockpiling plutonium for nuclear weapons and North Korea already has a nuclear device. New evidence indicates that the Japanese are a screwdriver away from their own nuclear bomb, and North Korea has indeed assembled at least one nuclear weapon.
Saddam Hussein is up to his old tricks, and in light of U.S. setbacks around the world, he thinks he can act with impunity by taking advantage of an inexperienced President and an ameturish foreign policy team. If Clinton continues to spend all of his time with domestic issues, Saddam may get his way. Indeed, Secretary of State Warren Christopher recently admonished the President stating that he needs to spend "at least an hour a week" meeting with his national security team. Without immediate attention, Iraq will become part of the proliferation problem, the most pressing security concern facing the United States today.
The security of the United States rests upon the fact that potentially troublesome nations live in fear of U.S. military power. Military engagements in Korea, Grenada and Libya let the world know that America meant business. Conversely, retreats in Vietnam and Lebanon suggested that the U.S. lacked the willpower to stand up for its interests. Indeed, Saddam Hussein often alluded to Vietnam in predicting an Iraqi victory over a weak-willed America. However, Desert Storm re-affirmed the international view that the U.S. is a military power of terrifying capacity and iron resolve. That ability to instill fear, which might be termed intimidation capital, is crucial in conducting foreign policy. Unfortunately, the present administration is rapidly devaluing American intimidation capital, undercutting U.S. influence and credibility worldwide.
July 1990: President George Bush breaks his most famous campaign pledge--"read my lips, no new taxes"--in exchange for Congressional promises of spending cuts and deficit reduction. Both Bush and the Democratically-controlled Congress agree that the plan would cut the deficit by $500 billion in five years. "That's half a trillion dollars," said President Bush. Yet the deficit grew.
