In honor of the opening of the month-long 1995 Review Conference on the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) in New York this week, here is a proliferation update. Regular readers of this column have seen nuclear proliferation discussed on previous occasions. If anyone is a bit more paranoid for the experience, "Global safari" has served its purpose.
North Korea: The deal brokered with the North Koreans regarding their nuclear weapons program is on the verge of collapse. Pyongyang is balking because the light-water reactors being provided to replace its graphite reactors are coming from South Korea, their mortal enemy. While the agreement between the United States and North Korea did not specify the origin of the new reactors, North Korea has threatened to restart its old system and produce more plutonium, an action that would instantly revoke the arrangement. The two countries are supposed to settle this issue by the end of today, but negotiations have not been going well.
Furthermore, some of the oil provided to North Korea by the United States--another part of the agreement--has been diverted to military use. But most ominously, intelligence officials believe that a power struggle is currently underway in Pyongyang. The government-controlled media has been criticizing Kim Jong-Il's support for the nuclear arrangement; elements in the military are opposed to the abandonment of nuclear weapons. Secretary of Defense Bill Perry recently noted that the military considered air strikes to take out the Yongbyon nuclear facilities. While the plan was scrapped, Perry assured the press that the United States maintains the capability to do so. It may soon be time to dust off that plan.
Russia: Moscow will be providing nuclear reactors for Iran's Bushehr facility, which is suspected of being a base for a nuclear weapons program. Russia argues that they are selling reactors to an NPT signatory not (yet) declared in violation of the treaty. Moscow observes that the United States is giving North Korea, a known NPT violator, nuclear reactors for free. From that point of view, United States policy looks hypocritical.
More troubling, though, is Russia's lack of control over its nuclear materials, which are being smuggled into Europe and onto the black market at an alarming rate. It is now estimated that more than enough material to build a nuclear bomb has been smuggled out of Russia. Who has the weapons-grade material is unknown, but it will turn up eventually.
Iraq: Saddam Hussein continues to spend money on military programs and lavish presidential palaces while the general population suffers. The Iraqis have refused any number of reasonable plans forwarded by the Security Council to sell oil and pay for food, medicine and other essentials because Hussein refuses to use any of the proceeds to pay reparations and finance U.N. inspection teams. Iraq is still hiding a large portion of its mass-destruction assets, including a sizable biological weapons program. Iraq's nuclear weapons program has not been totally crippled, and most suspect that once greedy bastards in Paris and Moscow manage to lift the sanctions, Iraq will have a bomb in just a few years.
Iran: Not only is Iran getting reactors from Russia, but China is going to provide some as well. Iran's helpful friends in Moscow and Beijing will allow for the rapid development of a nuclear arsenal. Iran is also a likely buyer of the black market materials coming out of Russia. Iran has also been playing games by stationing anti-ship missiles and chemical weapons at various choke points in the Persian Gulf. Once the Iranians have nuclear weapons, they will be able to use their extensive mine capabilities and their Russian-supplied, Kilo-class submarines to restrict Gulf traffic and jack up oil prices to boost their failing economy.
Brazil: Brazil? Certainly. Both Brazil and Argentina have been working on nuclear weapons since the '70s. Both states claim to have shut down the projects and are working toward signing the Treaty of Tlatelolco, which establishes a nuclear weapons free zone in South America. However, Russian Foreign Intelligence recently reported that Brazil has resumed work on its nuclear weapons program. Credible? Certainly.
Special bonus briefing--Burundi: Any day now. Burundi is due for widespread civil war and genocide. Expect a six-figure casualty toll. The Security Council wants to send a peacekeeping force of up to 1,500 troops--fewer than were in Rwanda when that country blew up last year.
I have certainly enjoyed doing this column during the past two years, and I hope it has been educational. Forgive the cynicism, but I have been following these issues for quite some time. To my critics, I have enjoyed all of your mail, and as friends can tell you, each letter has a coveted spot on my "wall of shame." Cheers.
Barry Rothberg is a Trinity senior who enjoys a nice glass of Chianti with his international crises.
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