Iraqi proliferation requires immediate U.S. attention

Saddam Hussein is up to his old tricks, and in light of U.S. setbacks around the world, he thinks he can act with impunity by taking advantage of an inexperienced President and an ameturish foreign policy team. If Clinton continues to spend all of his time with domestic issues, Saddam may get his way. Indeed, Secretary of State Warren Christopher recently admonished the President stating that he needs to spend "at least an hour a week" meeting with his national security team. Without immediate attention, Iraq will become part of the proliferation problem, the most pressing security concern facing the United States today.

An Iraqi diplomatic team recently met with U.N. officials to argue that Iraq has complied with all of its obligations and that sanctions on oil sales and industrial imports should be lifted. According to U.N. resolutions, sanctions may be lifted only after the Iraqis have dismantled their nuclear, chemical, biological and missile programs, agreed to long-term monitoring and turned over lists of weapons suppliers. The United States has opposed ending sanctions despite a recent Iraqi pledge to accept long-term monitoring, and for good reason, as the Iraqis have deceived the United Nations at every turn.

The United States signed a cease-fire agreement with Iraq at the end of the Gulf War, not a peace treaty. If Iraq violates the agreement, both the United States and the United Nations are legally justified in resuming military operations against Iraq, and have done so on numerous occasions-attacking air defense targets, intelligence headquarters, etc. Iraq has continually violated the agreement and various U.N. resolutions, reason enough to maintain sanctions. Iraq has sold oil through Iran, Syria and Jordan; Iraqis have harassed U.N. weapons inspectors; they have failed to disclose the suppliers of their weapons programs, and teams of weapons engineers have been kept intact.

If sanctions are lifted, Hussein will continue with business as usual. Central Intelligence Agency director James Woolsey testified that Iraq could restart its chemical weapons production soon after sanctions are lifted, and that ballistic missile production could be resumed in a few months. Iraq has already reconstructed some 80 percent of its weapons plants, and Iraqui operatives have re-established their procurement networks for high-tech dual-use equipment. Some CIA estimates indicate that Iraq will only need a few years to complete a nuclear bomb after U.N. inspectors withdraw. Despite their best efforts, U.N. inspectors under the leadership of Rolf Ekeus have failed to find all of Iraq's weapons facilities. Export records from U.S. and European firms indicate that Iraq has hidden hundreds of computers and machine tools for its projects.

Incidentally, Ekeus is in agreement with Woolsey on his assessment of Iraq's ability to reconstitute its various programs for the construction of weapons of mass destruction, largely due to his knowledge of the way in which Iraq handled his inspections teams. The Iraqis have detained inspectors, prevented them from filming various facilities, barred them from flying over sensitive areas, declared buildings off-limits, concealed or burned documents and even planted bombs in some of the vehicles used by the inspectors in order to intimidate them.

Recent Iraqui behavior reinforces the belief that Iraq is a menace to international security. Hussein's forces have engaged in a program to drain the extensive marshes south of Basra so as to be able to utilize tanks and artillery against the Iranian-backed Shiite rebels. In recent weeks, marsh Arabs fleeing to Iran have reported that the Iraquis used chemical weapons as part of the operation. The U.N. sent an inspection team to Iran on Sept. 14 to investigate and may enter Iraq if the reports can be verified. Numerous Iraqi border incursions into Kuwait are also cause for concern, and have resulted in provocative incidents with Kuwaiti forces.

If sanctions are lifted, Hussein will put his restored oil revenue into his weapons programs. Neighboring Iran is currently engaged in a massive arms buildup which has included the purchase of submarines and aircraft from former Soviet republics. The Iranians are also hard at work on a nuclear bomb and reports indicate that Iran may have purchased nuclear warheads from Khazakstan. Saddam will do everything in his power to ensure that his arch-enemy does not achieve a strategic advantage in the Gulf region.

Given Iraq's unpredicatable behavior and its continual defiance of U.N. authority, sanctions must not be lifted at this time. The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is a critical issue that cannot be ignored. The United States should use military force if necessary to ensure that Iraq does not become another country on the growing list of proliferators. If the Iraqis do not allow access to a facilty, bomb them. If officials will not had over documents, send a military team and seize them. If Iraq flies fixed-wing aircraft in no-fly zones, shoot them down and bomb the airfields. Weapons proliferation is too serious to leave to chance and diplomacy.