If North Korea builds nuclear weapons, Japan will follow

Last October, Global Safari raised the possibility that Japan is pursuing a nuclear weapons project, motivated in part by North Korea's own nuclear program. The conclusions--Japan is stockpiling plutonium for nuclear weapons and North Korea already has a nuclear device. New evidence indicates that the Japanese are a screwdriver away from their own nuclear bomb, and North Korea has indeed assembled at least one nuclear weapon.

An article in the London Sunday Times on Jan. 30 reported that Japan may already have a nuclear bomb. The Times cited a British Ministry of Defense report which stated that Japan has all of the components necessary to construct nuclear weapons; some U.S. analysts suggest that Tokyo could put a bomb together in a matter of weeks. Last year Tokyo expressed the possibility that it would not renew its signature on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Though the government has reversed itself, many conservatives in Japan oppose the move. Japan has of late been stockpiling tons of plutonium, allegedly for its civilian breeder reactor. By all indications, the breeder program will never get beyond the experimental stage. Further, a breeder reactor operates by burning and producing more plutonium. Japan could never utilize all of that plutonium in a nuclear power program.

However, in an effort to allay public fears about plutonium as a safe power source, the Japanese plutonium lobby created a cartoon character named "Reliable Friend Little Pluto," or simply Mr. Pluto. Mr. Pluto is a short, rosy-cheeked child who wears a green helmet with the symbol for plutonium--Pu--prominently displayed. Mr. Pluto stars in a promotional video hyping plutonium as a solution to Japan's dependency on foreign oil. One of Pluto's friends drinks a beaker full of plutonium, goes to the bathroom, and returns saying "I feel so fresh." Indeed, plutonium is absolutely the most toxic substance known to mankind, yet "experts" say the plutonium would pass harmlessly through the body. Mr. Pluto may think that all of his "safe" plutonium is for a power project, but this is simply not the case--the plutonium is destined for nuclear weapons.

To complete its arsenal, Japan needs a reliable delivery system. On Feb. 3, Japan launched its H-2 missile, the first such project built entirely of Japanese technology. The H-2, capable of lofting satellites into orbit, was built partly to wean Japan's space program from dependence on U.S. technology and expertise. Japan also claims that the H-2 will allow competition in the lucrative satellite-launching business, currently dominated by the United States, the European Arianespace consortium, and Russia. Yet an H-2 launch is twice as expensive as an Ariane 4 launch, casting doubt on the competitiveness of the H-2 in the global market. However, the H-2 would make an excellent ICBM. Constructed entirely in Japan, the H-2 would provide the Japanese with a secure launching platform for nuclear weapons.

Part of Japan's impetus for developing a nuclear capability is the fear that it can no longer depend upon the United States for its security needs. Will an administration that cuts and runs after 18 soldiers die in a peacekeeping operation; that turns around in the face of an angry mob of only a few hundred; that looks the other way in Bosnia really force the North Koreans to give up their nuclear weapons? A senior Japanese defense official observed "as long as we are confident that the United States would defend us against all threats . . .like the North Koreans, I think there is nothing to worry about. If that changed, it would be a very different situations."

The United States must therefore respond to North Korea's nuclear program. Bill Clinton has stated that North Korea will not be permitted to have nuclear weapons. However, his administration has done little to ensure this. Pyongyang just proposed an arrangement which will allow only a one-time inspection of some of the identified nuclear sites, clearly an unacceptable compromise. North Korea is simply stalling and Clinton is taking the bait. If the United States, through its inaction, allows North Korea to build a nuclear arsenal, Japan will follow suit. It is imperative that the United States takes all necessary measures, including the use of military force, to prevent North Korea from fielding atomic weapons. Fear of a conventional war on the Korean peninsula is not grounds for allowing Pyongyang to be a proliferator. The international community must also insist that the Japanese abide by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which Japan is a signatory.

Japan is a screwdriver away from nuclear weapons, and anything the Japanese say to the contrary is simply untrue. How is a launch system twice as expensive as that of the competition going to provide satellite service for foreign customers? How can the Japanese count on the United States for protection against capricious neighbors? What are they going to do with all of that plutonium? Maybe they are going to drink it with their sakZ. Don't worry--Mr. Pluto says its safe.

Barry Rothberg is a Trinity junior.