Last month, Croatian President Franjo Tudjman declared that as of March 31 of this year the mandate for the United Nations Protection Force (UNPROFOR) operating in Croatia will be void and that its troops must be withdrawn by the end of June. Some 12,000 United Nations soldiers have been deployed in Croatia since a January 1992 cease-fire ended six months of bloody fighting between Croatia and Serb elements following Croatia's secession from Yugoslavia.
UNPROFOR's role in Croatia has been to keep the peace between the Croatian government and Serb forces which occupy nearly one-third of Croatian territory in the region declared as Serbian Krajina. Croatia believes the arrangement has only validated Serb claims by maintaining the status quo and --is upset by the continued presence of regular Serbian army forces in Krajina.
While these troops are ostensibly volunteers "on leave" from the Serbian military, they are in reality a form of direct assistance by the government of Slobodan Milosivic. In response, the Croats want UNPROFOR to leave so that they can correct these problems with the application of force. A renewed Serbo-Croatian conflict will be messy, but also provides opportunities for a more equitable resolution to the war in the former Yugoslavia.
It has been suggested that President Tudjman's demand for UNPROFOR's departure is part of a secret deal with the Serbs to exchange land in Krajina for territory in Bosnia. Recall that the Serbs and Croats were united against Bosnia until last year, as illustrated by the vicious Bosnian/Croat clashes in Mostar. However, the most likely scenario is that the Serbs, having benefited from UNPROFOR's presence in the short run, now have the military confidence to reclaim Krajina by force.
Even now, diplomats are scrambling to prevent renewed fighting by proposing a deal whereby the Serbs in Krajina would be granted extensive autonomy, but not independence from Croatia. Neither side approves of the arrangement and war is imminent.
Tudjman's demand for a U.N. withdrawal conjures images of Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser, who insisted that U.N. peacekeepers be removed from the Sinai in 1967. U Thant, secretary-general at the time, immediately complied without consulting the Security Council, and his action was one of the contributing factors in the Six Day War.
While Boutros Boutros-Ghali is opposed to the current withdrawal decision, plans are indeed underway for its implementation.
Withdrawal from Croatia could provide a screen for a complete evacuation of U.N. forces from the former Yugoslavia. A total U.N. pullout would eliminate the role of the blue-helmets as hostages obstructing policy options such as lifting the arms embargo or conducting serious air strikes against Serb positions.
Clearly, UNPROFOR has done more harm than good in this war.
If the U.N. pulls all of its forces out of Croatia and Bosnia, then the key obstacle to lifting the arms embargo on the Bosnians and Croats will be eliminated as the mostly European peacekeepers will no longer be in harm's way. The Serbs can then be pounded out of their complacency by a joint Bosnian/Croat offensive. As the Serbs now hold some 70 percent of Bosnia, view themselves as victors, and have little fear of the U.N. or NATO, they have been quite intransigent in peace negotiations. If the Croats can push them out of Krajina and the Bosnians can make real gains on the ground, the Serbs will change their minds about this cease fire.
Those opposed to a renewed Croatian campaign say that Serbia will enter the conflict, leading to a wider war. But Serbia is still arming its proxies in Bosnia and Croatia, while Serbian army regulars are deployed in both theaters. More overt Serbian participation will make for a bloodier war, but will also simplify NATO options for action against the aggressor.
Finally, there are the Russians. As fellow Slavs the Russians see Serbia as an historical ally and have repeatedly opposed economic and military action directed against them. The Russians can complain, and may even send their second-rate military equipment to arm the Serbs, but no one seriously believes that Moscow has the intention or even the capability of intervening directly in the former Yugoslavia. Yeltsin is bogged down with internal dilemmas, and the Russian government would just as soon forget that the war even exists.
The time has come to remove U.N. forces from the former Yugoslavia and let the parties fight for themselves, at least until the Serbs change their minds and start negotiating in good faith.
While it is true that there are no "good guys," Bosnia and Croatia are recognized members of the international community and deserve the opportunity to defend their territorial integrity.
Franjo Tudjman will lead the way.
Barry Rothberg is a Trinity senior.
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