As a presidential candidate, Bill Clinton accused George Bush of "coddling dictators" in Beijing by continuing to grant China most favored nation trade status despite its poor record on human rights. Soon after taking office, however, Clinton changed his mind and decided that MFN status should not be revoked given the importance of China, specifically to the U.S. economy.
Clinton has changed his mind yet again and is threatening to revoke China's MFN status if Beijing does not improve its human rights record. By emphasizing human rights over economic opportunity and good relations, Bill Clinton is following in Jimmy Carter's footsteps, jeopardizing American opportunities abroad.
Secretary of State Warren Christopher's recent visit to Beijing was described in the New York Times as a "diplomatic mugging." He was confronted with obstinate Chinese officials peddling colorful aphorisms such as, "You can't become a fat man with one meal." Beijing resents U.S. pressure, as exemplified by Christopher's visit, to improve its human rights record in the face of economic threats. The Chinese regard such actions as meddling in their internal affairs. They are particularly upset by a secret meeting between Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights John Shattuck and Wei Jigsheng, China's most notable dissident.
Christopher's reception was mostly his own fault, as his visit coincided with the annual National People's Congress. Though the Congress is a rubber-stamp body, its meeting is an important time of face-saving and political posturing. The leadership is already nervous about Deng Xiaping's imminent death and a population made restless by inflation and poor working conditions. Beijing warned Christopher to delay the visit, but the Secretary's aides stated that the trip accommodated his schedule. Christopher failed to comprehend the delicacy of Chinese diplomacy, and has thus jeopardized relations with a nation boasting the third largest economy in the world.
The economic repercussions of cutting off China's MFN status would be serious; hundreds of U.S. businesses have warned the Clinton administration that 167,000 high-tech American jobs could be lost. More importantly, the United States risks losing markets and opportunities to Germany, Japan, Australia and other economic powers eager to get a piece of the Chinese economy, which is growing at over 9 percent per year. On the Chinese side, a slowdown in economic expansion could lead to social unrest and political instability, worsening rather than improving the human rights situation.
The United States will need China's support on numerous present and future endeavors. For example, the United States is attempting to prevent North Korea from proceeding with its nuclear weapons program. As North Korea's closest ally, China can assist in pressuring Pyongyang to give up its program. The United States will need Beijing's support for any Security Council resolution imposing sanctions against North Korea. China also sells large quantities of weapons and military technology to dubious clients like Iran and Syria. Alienating the Chinese will make any efforts to stem the proliferation of ballistic missiles, chemical weapons and nuclear technologies even more difficult.
Following Christopher's disastrous visit, the White House has signalled to the Chinese that it will consider ending its annual threat of trade sanctions if Beijing will meet a minimum of human rights demands. Many in both the White House and Congress now believe that the annual confrontation is counterproductive and has resulted in little progress. Yet in his recent prime-time television press conference, President Clinton expressed his intent to continue pressuring China on human rights. Clinton needs to pick a policy and stick with it.
Rather than revoking MFN, which is considered the atomic bomb of trade sanctions, the administration could impose more limited tariff increases. The White House might follow the advice of the Chinese dissident community and impose tariffs only on goods manufactured by state-run industries, saving China's growing free-market enterprises from the sting of sanctions. Better still would be to forget trade sanctions altogether, focusing instead on fostering closer relations and continuing to invest in China's growing economy.
The United States should not simply ignore China's human rights record. Indeed, it is in the best interests of the United States to promote human rights, as favorable political conditions generally lead to reductions in conflict. Threatening to revoke MFN status will not persuade Beijing to improve its record and will harm the United States both economically and politically.
The Chinese leadership will not cave in to pressures from abroad. China can survive without U.S. trade, if only because so many other countries are eager to take its place in the Chinese market. Beijing will move toward reform, but only at a deliberate pace and only if such reform seems to be of its own choosing. As China's economy becomes more market-oriented and its population more prosperous, the Chinese government will have a harder time maintaining authoritarian rule.
Barry Rothberg is a Trinity junior.
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