With a clean slate and an offense that returns nearly every key contributor from the 2010 campaign, wouldn’t the 2011 season seem to be the perfect time for experience to catch-up to Duke’s raw skill and deliver the Blue Devils’ first bowl appearance since 1994?
Don’t let the defense fool you.
While Duke’s offense has shown consistency and improvement since head coach David Cutcliffe came to Durham before the 2008 season, the Blue Devil defense has steadily declined.
And this year it will be that defense that keeps Duke from going bowling yet again.
Last season, the Blue Devil offense kept the team’s hopes alive in nearly every game, save for blowout losses to Alabama and Virginia Tech at Wallace Wade Stadium. At the end of games, however, the defense couldn’t keep opponents off the scoreboard, and Duke lost four games by six points or less.
In order to win those tight battles, the defense needs to figure out how to keep opponents out of the end zone late in the game. The Blue Devils allowed a fourth quarter touchdown in three of the four games that were decided by less than six points in 2010, and nearly blew a 31-7 lead against Navy when the Midshipmen scored 24 points against Duke’s three in the final period.
The trouble is centered around the defensive line, where the Blue Devils struggled with depth last season following the graduation of Vince Oghobaase and Ayanga Okopokuwuruk, and the dismissal of promising freshman John Drew in the spring of 2010. While the line has added numbers through recruiting the past two seasons, it remains to be seen if Duke will be able to field a line capable of stopping the run and disrupting the passing game. The Blue Devils were dead last in the ACC in 2010 with 2,499 rushing yards allowed and only 12 sacks.
With a formidable slate of fall games ahead, those numbers will need to improve drastically for Duke to reach the six-win threshold for bowl eligibility in 2011.
In similar fashion from the dawn of the Cutcliffe Era, the Blue Devils open the season at home against Football Championship Subdivision opponent Richmond. Yet, even the annual FCS battle isn’t a lock for victory number one, as we learned when the Spiders came to Durham in 2009 and left Duke with a loss that all-but-ruled-out a bowl game that season.
Then for the second year in a row a defending Heisman Trophy finalist will make an appearance in Wallace Wade Stadium. Last time it was Trophy winner Mark Ingram, who torched that porous defensive line for 154 yards and two touchdowns on only nine carries. This year, 2010 Heisman runner up quarterback Andrew Luck leads the Stanford Cardinal into the Gothic Wonderland to boost his NFL-ready resume.
The non-conference slate includes a home match-up with Tulane and a trip to Florida International. While at first glance the Golden Panthers might not sound like much of a threat out of the Sun Belt Conference, they managed to get themselves to a bowl last season and are far from a sure victory.
So through the non-conference slate, the Blue Devils’ best-case scenario is a 3-1 record. Worst-case? Let’s say 1-3.
In the ACC, of the four games lost by six points or less last season, the Blue Devils will again face Boston College, Wake Forest and North Carolina in the fall. With an otherwise formidable schedule featuring Florida State and Virginia Tech, Duke will need to find a way to win at least two of those three contests to have a shot at a bowl game.
Will it happen? Will the Blue Devils reach the magical pinnacle of six wins? Probably not.
In those three critical games, Duke will have to travel to Chestnut Hill, Mass. to face the Eagles, who are very difficult to beat at home. Facing the Demon Deacons at Wallace Wade might be the most winnable of the three following last year’s shootout in Winston-Salem.
So in this best-case scenario world, where the Blue Devils take care of business and get three wins outside of the ACC, and snag another conference win in addition to a victory over Wake Forest, the season hinges on a trip to Chapel Hill at the end of November.
But UNC always seems to take advantage of Duke’s weaknesses, disrupting the Blue Devils’ aerial attack and pounding the ball into that weak defensive line through the running game. No matter the off-field issues the Tar Heels simply find a way to beat the Blue Devils, claiming the Victory Bell in 20 of the past 21 seasons.
For most current students, a win over Carolina is literally once-in-a-lifetime.
Duke won’t be able to do it without the ability to stop the run, and will see its bowl aspirations fade away in Chapel Hill once again.
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