First place is no sure bet for Seminoles this season

Seventy to two.

That's Florida State's record in the Atlantic Coast Conference since joining the league in 1992, a league they've placed first in every year since.

The first loss came in 1995, a 33-28 loss to Virginia.

The second came in 1998 to N.C. State, the largest ACC win over the Seminoles, a 24-7 romp for the Wolfpack in Raleigh.

So sit down, as the following prediction might come as a shock: Florida State will not only lose a game this year in the ACC, but when the smoke clears, it will not even finish in first place.

I know, I know. The Seminoles are nothing less than a powerhouse. The ACC media gave 64-of-70 first-place votes in the conference-Clemson and Georgia Tech shared the other six. The Associated Press poll places them sixth in the nation and the ESPN coaches' poll even higher, at fifth.

Florida State lost to Oklahoma last year in the national championship 13-2 and was national champion the year before-a 46-29 win over Frank Beamer's Virginia Tech Hokies. In the past 25 years, the length of coach Bobby Bowden's reign, the Seminoles are 242-55-4, outscoring their opponents 10,195 to 5,002.

In those 25 years, Florida State has been to the Orange Bowl six times, it has been to the Sugar Bowl five times, plus three Fiesta Bowls, two Gator Bowls, an All-American Bowl, a Citrus Bowl, a Cotton Bowl, a Blockbuster Bowl and a Tangerine Bowl.

In Florida State's history, it has all-time records of 6-2 against Nebraska and 3-0 against Ohio State. The only major teams it has losing records against are Florida, (17-26) and Mami (20-24).

In that time, two players, Charlie Ward and Chris Weinke, have been Heisman Trophy winners. Twenty-three players went on to be chosen in the first round of the NFL draft.

Since 1987, the Seminoles have consecutively finished somewhere in the top five in the AP poll. They pack Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee the way Mike Krzyzewski fills Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Nevertheless, consider the following:

Bowden's offensive coordinator since 1990, Mark Richt, is now the head coach at Georgia. His son Jeff Bowden, the youngest of the Bowden coaching tree, will take his place (brother Tommy is the coach at Clemson and Terry is a former coach of Auburn), and it remains to be seen if the previous wide receivers coach can work Richt's magic.

Chris Weinke is no longer FSU's quarterback, but rather a relatively untested freshman Chris Rix. Rix, a talented freshman, was ranked among near the top of his class by recruiting analysts, but has yet to take a snap in a college football game.

Anquan Boldin, who was competing with Rix for the starting QB job before being moved to wide receiver, is now out for the rest of the season due to injury.

The Seminoles' special teams, always a weakness, are nothing to write home about either. Brett Cimorelli, a sophomore, returns as Florida State's place kicker, but memories of "Wide Right III" after last year's loss to Miami should still send chills down Bowden's back.

Only nine starters return from last year's national championship runner-up squad, five on offense, four on defense. There is literally turnover at every single skill position. Athlon Sports' ACC preview names none of FSU's players as the best in any position. Travis Minor is gone. Marvin Minnis is gone. And don't forget Derrick Gibson, Jamal Reynolds and David Warren, all of whom have left Tallahassee for greener pastures.

The Seminoles' first two games will pad their statistics and propel them higher in the rankings. Those two games, Duke and Alabama-Birmingham, should be cakewalks.

Beware of these false signs.

Georgia Tech, a team that came within five points of beating the Seminoles early last season, looms on as one of the Seminoles' toughest tests. George O'Leary is a seasoned coach, George Godsey is a very talented quarterback and Kelly Campbell is a surefire All-ACC selection. The Yellow Jackets can look to last year's Orange Bowl for reassurance of what a strong defense can do.

One month later, on Oct. 13, Florida State must take on Larry Coker in his first year as coach of Miami, which retains Ken Dorsey as quarterback from last season.

Both of those games threaten to break up any momentum Florida State can hope for going into its last three games-all on the road.

The Seminoles travel to Death Valley Nov. 3 for the third annual `Bowden Bowl.' The younger Bowden nearly defeated his father in a 17-14 loss here two years ago, before blowing it in Tallahassee 54-7 last season. But the Tigers' squad is just as talented as last year and quarterback Woodrow Dantzer is a preseason Heisman candidate.

A week later, the Seminoles have to go to Raleigh to take on Chuck Amato's increasingly sharp Wolfpack. A former assistant to Bowden at FSU, Amato has expanded last year's mild offensive phenomenon-namely, Phillip Rivers and two guys named Robinson-into a force to be reckoned with.

Finally, Florida State must travel to Gainesville, which could truly be Troublesville against Steve Spurrier's consensus preseason No. 1 Gators.

All of these five games are dangerous for Florida State and three of them are ACC opponents.

It is obvious this team pales in comparison to FSU squads of the recent and far past.

How much, however, does FSU have to wilt before it becomes vulnerable to more than a perfunctory challenge within the ACC?

Kevin Lees is a Trinity junior and University Editor of The Chronicle.

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