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Postponing Duke-UNC was the right call, but the game could have been saved

(02/13/14 10:53am)

____simple_html_dom__voku__html_wrapper____>I'll freely admit I was a little nervous. Six inches of snow on the ground, a number of car crashes and canceled classes were all signs that driving from Durham to Chapel Hill wasn't a good idea. But this was Duke-North Carolina! It was a battle between Jabari Parker and Marcus Paige. It was a matchup between the top two offensive teams in the ACC. With a win, Duke would win three straight against North Carolina on the road for the first time since the 2001-02 season. How on earth was I going to miss out on attending this game!?Apparently not everyone agreed.Wednesday's basketball game at the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill was postponed because of the winter storm in the area. In a press release, UNC Director of Athletics Bubba Cunningham stated that safety was the main reasoning behind postponing the contest."Duke's bus [was] not able to get to their campus to pick up the team in time to be able to make the trip to Chapel Hill so we can't play this evening," Cunningham said. "The safety of the teams and officials is the number one priority and this was the best decision to make at this time."Cunningham raises a great point: driving from Durham to Chapel Hill starting in the evening would have been a safety hazard. Students at Duke and North Carolina may have enjoyed having no class (Durham Academy sent this gem to students today in light of school cancelations), but driving on the roads Wednesday with 2-4 inches of snow on the ground was difficult to say the least. I'm from Virginia, so I'm not going to give the same "this isn't real snow" lecture that all of your friends from the North are probably giving you. We get it guys, it snows more in the North and southerners don't know how to react to snowfall. Regardless, it was a difficult day to drive for anyone.However, I do not believe that canceling the Duke-North Carolina game was the right decision. Let's start with the obvious: safety concerns. Despite everything I just mentioned about driving, as of noon Wednesday there was no precipitation. Duke's classes were canceled as of 10 a.m. Wednesday morning. The weather was going to be bad Wednesday evening. With all of this accounted for, why not travel to Chapel Hill earlier in the day? I know we don't always see eye-to-eye with our neighbors down Snow-bacco Road, but I'm fairly positive both athletic departments could have found time for both teams to practice before the game in the Dean Dome. Additionally, since both Duke and North Carolina had no class Wednesday, wouldn't it make sense to think ahead and travel a whopping eight miles down the road so inclement weather wouldn't be an issue?If for no other reason, think about the fans. This year, the average ticket price for the game was $332, the cheapest in any of the past four years by almost 20 percent, according to data from SeatGeek.com. Prices could be impacted by a less sexy matchup (No. 8 Duke against unranked North Carolina isn't exactly must-see TV), but apparently fans weren't going to be stopped by snow. Numerous images on Twitter today, such as this one or this one, all showed fans actually leaving their cars on the side of the highway so they could walk the rest of the way to the Dean Dome. We're not talking a few blocks; no no, we're talking miles... in the snow. I picture fans sprinting to Chapel Hill, reaching the top of the stairs of the Dean Dome and screaming, "There can only be one highlander!"Lastly, there's the difficult schedule that the Blue Devils now face. In a span of eight days, Duke will play four games against Maryland, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Syracuse. The last two games against the Tar Heels and the Orange will be played in a three-day period. It's not the scariest stretch in the world, but it is certainly demanding this late in conference play. I do not disagree with the decision to postpone the game. I simply wish that both schools had taken the necessary steps to ensure the game would be played.


Stat Chat: Perimeter vs. Post

(02/12/14 11:24pm)

____simple_html_dom__voku__html_wrapper____>When asked about guarding Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood, North Carolina head basketball coach Roy Williams said it would be difficult, but more of a result of the matchup rather than the talent of the players themselves."If they play them at the four and five...their two biggest players on the team, it’s almost impossible for us to match up with them," Williams said. "They have 6-foot-8, 6-foot-9 [guys] that shoot the ball from the three and do it successfully; our 6-foot-8, 6-foot-9 guys don’t do that.”It's well known that the Tar Heels struggle shooting the basketball, specifically from 3-point range. The team shoots 31.9 percent from behind the arc, ranking 11th in the ACC. To put that number in perspective, Duke shoots 42 percent from three, ranking first in Division I in that particular category. North Carolina also shoots an abysmal 62.4 percent from the free throw line, ranking dead last in the conference. Needless to say these are hardly the numbers one would expect from the second highest scoring team—75.8 points per game—in the ACC.Where the Tar Heels thrive is scoring in the post. From 2-point range alone, North Carolina shoots nearly 50 percent. Throw in the fact that Duke allows 33 points in the paint per game and the Tar Heel big men could have a field day on offense.Which bring us back to Coach Williams: a team that is so dependent on the play of bigs in the post, coupled with little focus on outside shooting, gives Duke a huge matchup advantage of their own on the offensive end. Part of what makes Parker and Hood so special, aside from their ability to drive and score in the paint, is their outside shooting. The dynamic duo has accounted for 34 percent of the team's 3-point field goals, scoring 79 in 24 games played—an average of 3.3 per contest. Also consider that when they do in fact drive and get fouled, Parker and Hood shoot 74.1 and 83.0 percent from the free throw line respectively. That's better than every Tar Heel player, with the exception of guard Marcus Paige.Even when Parker or Hood doesn't have the ball in their hands, guarding Duke behind the arc is going to be a nightmare. Tyler Thornton (52.6), Rasheed Sulaimon (49.1), and Andre Dawkins (47.4) all have demonstrated sweet strokes from behind the arc, shooting a higher percentage than either Hood (45.0) or Parker (36.7). If you want to see how a team that doesn't defend well behind the arc fairs against the Blue Devils, look no further than the Syracuse game from a few weeks ago: Duke shot 15-for-36—41.7 percent—from 3-point land.Based on the data alone, it's safe to say this will be a high-scoring affair. Both teams have at least five players scoring nine points a game; both teams move the ball extremely well, with the Blue Devils and Tar Heels averaging 15.6 and 15.7 assists per game. Just to add little something extra to rivalry, with a win tonight, Coach K—39-39 all-time against North Carolina—would have a winning record against the Tar Heels for the first time ever. The only question now is which team will capitalize on its offensive matchups more effectively. I'm not sure I know, but I can't wait to watch.


Stat Chat: Not in my house

(02/05/14 7:33pm)

____simple_html_dom__voku__html_wrapper____>Last Saturday's contest was one of the best college basketball games of the season; unfortunately for Duke, when the buzzer sounded, they were on the wrong side of the win-loss column. Despite some late heroics, the game came down to one glaring problem for the Blue Devils: the team has no depth in the post.Before I start railing through the numbers, I do understand that Amile Jefferson played a fantastic game against Syracuse. The sophomore put up a stellar line of 14 points, seven rebounds, six offensive, and five assists. On top of that, his rebounding led to 10 of Duke's 22 second chance points. However, as was the major theme of the contest, Jefferson was forced to watch the end of the game on the bench due to foul trouble.With the exception of Jefferson, Duke was inept in the lane. From 2-point range, including points in the paint as well as the mid-range jumper, the Blue Devils shot 16-for-36—44.4 percent. However, take away Amile Jefferson and the shooting percentage drops significantly to 38.4 percent. If these numbers aren't a strong enough indicator, then the 36 total threes taken—granted, they made 41.7 percent of those shots—is.There's also the concern of physical size when taking the ball to the basket. Parker is the second best scorer in the post aside from Jefferson, but even the freshman star struggled and was blocked an astounding five times. Overall, Duke was blocked nine times, with perhaps the biggest one coming when Rodney Hood attempted a dunk in overtime with the game on the line. Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, this is not a new trend. This season, Duke has been blocked 81 times, averaging 3.68 shots blocked per game. In ACC play, that average inflates to 4.44 shots blocked per game. The team's natural athleticism allowed for an impressive 18 offensive rebounds, but the Orange's size in the lane caused problems all night for the Blue Devils.Sure, offensively size was a problem, but the defensive end proved the be the difference maker in the game. When Duke was near full strength—which was rare in the second half and overtime because of the aforementioned foul trouble—the team held its own offensively. After regulation, Syracuse held only a four-point advantage in points in the paint (36-32); however, in overtime, the Orange scored six more points in the paint against a defense lacking both Jefferson and Parker. You can point to any number of defensive efficiency numbers and they all point to one thing: Syracuse was going to shoot 2-pointers and they were going to convert on shot attempts. Only four of the Orange's 54 attempts were from beyond the arc, and they converted on three of those 3-point attempts. Syracuse is a good team and Duke played a great game, but if fans take away one weakness from this game, it's the lack of depth in the post for the Blue Devils.


Stat Chat: MP3 to MVP?

(01/29/14 11:58pm)

____simple_html_dom__voku__html_wrapper____>It was the moment I was waiting for. With 10:26 left in the first half, Marshall Plumlee stealthily worked his way behind the defender and blocked Talib Zanna. I jumped off my couch and decided it's time; it's time to write about Zoubek 2.0 one more time for the loyal Stat Chat readers. MP3 has played very well the past few games while playing fairly minimal minutes. Before we get too ahead of ourselves with comparisons, let's take a look at the youngest Plumlee's numbers the past two games compared to his season totals:VS FSU - 12 min, 2-for-5 FG (3-for-4 FT), seven points, seven rebounds (seven offensive)VS Pitt - 12 min, 0-for-1 FG (0-0 FT), 0 points, four rebounds (one offensive)2013/14 - 7.4 mpg, 7-for-13 FG (3-for-11 FT), 1.0 ppg, 29 rebounds (17 offensive)Marshall's game has really come together nicely the past few contests. Focusing on the Florida State game, Marshall's seven offensive rebounds set the tone. MP3's work on the glass led to a 3-pointer and and a dunk. He even managed to make not one, not two, but three free-throws in a row, the first free throws made in his career. Throw in an additional five minutes of playing time per game and Marshall has actually started to play at a relatively high level. For weeks, many have demanded Marshall play more. After all, his height is an immediate boost to a team that desperately needs help rebounding the basketball. The Blue Devils rank 175th in the country in rebounding overall. Offensively, Duke relies so heavily on 3-point baskets that the team requires offensive rebounding in order to keep plays alive. Marshall has shown that he can help the team in limited minutes, and with the additional playing time, who knows how much he could help this team.A few years ago, I wrote about why Miles Plumlee, despite some great performances during the regular season, was never going to have the impact Brian Zoubek did in 2010. Miles had just scored 13 points and snagged 22 rebounds in the best game of the oldest Plumlee's career; however, Miles, despite setting a record for most rebounds by a player in the Mike Krzyzewski era, was never going to secure a spot in the starting lineup; nor would he maintain that kind of offensive production for the remainder of the season (to be fair, he did score in double digits two more times, but you get my point).With MP3, I see much more more potential to become that X factor player. I know, Miles was a better college player and actually has been playing well for the Phoenix Suns, but Marshall has a much better chance of cracking into the starting lineup. Am I saying I believe he'll have a Zoubek-esque impact? No; I'm not ready to go that far. However, given additional minutes in bigger ACC contest, such as Saturday against Syracuse, MP3 may turn out to be Duke's MVP.


Stat Chat: Gimme That!

(01/22/14 11:28pm)

____simple_html_dom__voku__html_wrapper____>It's hard to ask for a more complete game from Duke than the one they played this past Saturday in Cameron Indoor Stadium. Shooting well behind the arc? Check (45.8 percent). Sharing the ball? Check (19 assists on 33 field goals). Getting to the free throw line? Check (18-of-21 from the stripe). All of these numbers are fantastic, but the real difference maker came from great man to man defense.The Blue Devils used a similar rotation strategy to the one I referenced last week, using a hockey-style substitution to start each half. Each unit has its main offensive threat (Jabari Parker and Rasheed Sulaimon) and its best on-ball defender (Matt Jones and Tyler Thornton). Parker and Sulaimon combined for 36 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists, but it was the collective defensive effort that paced the offensive game in transition. When you initially look at the numbers for N.C. State, it would appear as though Duke's defense was sliding back into its bad defensive habits. The Wolfpack shot 48.1 percent from the field! But the Blue Devils used a full-court press nearly the entire contest, meaning that there were several occasions where N.C. State failed to get a shot off. In all, Duke forced 21 turnovers—14 of which came via steals. The Wolfpack appeared surprised by the immense amount of pressure from the start. In the first half, the Blue Devils forced 15 turnovers, nine of which came by way of steals. Here in lies the problem for N.C. State: Duke scored 23 points off of those 15 turnovers. That means that in the first half, the Blue Devils averaged 1.15 points off turnovers per minute and 51.1 percent of the teams total points came off of turnovers.In 40 minutes of game play, Duke amassed a total of 21 turnovers, leading to 33 points. Further breakdown of the numbers suggests that some of the guys who have been harped on the most for a failure to commit on the defensive end were the ones making the biggest plays. Parker and Rodney Hood each had three steals, resulting in eight points—six of which came from Parker—and two of the biggest highlights of the game—a pair of Parker dunks. Perhaps the most impressive individual performance came from Quinn Cook and his man-to-man defense, specifically on Wolfpack guard Anthony Barber. Barber, a talented freshman for a squad that is clearly rebuilding, was harassed all day, failing to find as many shots as usual (six versus his season average of 9.9) and turning the ball over more frequently as well (four versus his season average of 2.1). Cook himself didn't have the same flashy numbers as some of his fellow players, but he clearly stepped up his defensive game to lock down Barber.Wednesday, Duke will play a Miami squad that averages 10.9 turnovers per game and ranks dead last in scoring in the ACC. Translation: it could be a long night for the Hurricanes if they turn the ball over as much as NC State did.


Stat Chat: The Replacements

(01/17/14 1:08am)

____simple_html_dom__voku__html_wrapper____>Duke has played in a number of exciting games this season, with several coming down to the wire. This past Monday against Virginia was no different, with a wild bounce off of a Rasheed Sulaimon three-point attempt giving the Blue Devils a lead they wouldn't relinquish in a 69-65 victory. However, what was most fascinating about this game was the lineup changes. Not only was the starting lineup changed once again, but head coach Mike Krzyzewski went to the bench...a lot. Let's start with the overall numbers. Duke used 18 different lineups in the game overall, meaning each lineup averaged about 2 minutes and 13 seconds on the court. The lineup used most frequently included Jabari Parker, Rodney Hood, Amile Jefferson, Quinn Cook, and Matt Jones. Those five played together for 13 minutes and 26 seconds of the game, outscoring the Cavaliers 19-15, forcing three turnovers, and holding the opposition to 27.8 percent from the field. However, while this was the most used lineup, there were some serious problems on the offensive end. The unit shot 30 percent from the field, nearly 15 points lower than the team's field goal percentage overall, while taking 40.8 percent of the shots, therefore making the poor shooting significant. Where we saw the biggest difference was behind the arc. Despite having four quality shooters from 3-point land in the lineup, Duke shot 18.2 percent from deep with this particular lineup.Before getting too lost in those offensive numbers, there are two points that need to be addressed. The first is that lineups with better defensive players are generally going to be less productive on the offensive end. Jones is a solid shooter, but where he thrives is playing perimeter defense. When Jones was in the game, 50 percent of the total field goals were made, but the Blue Devils shot 33.3 percent from the field. The other factor to consider is how hot Sulaimon was compared to everyone else on the team. The sophomore made 31.8 percent of the team's field goals (7-of-11) and 40 percent of the team's three-point field goals (4-of-5). Compare that to Parker and Hood, who shot a combined 8-of-23 from the field and 4-of-13 from 3-point land. Parker and Hood are the best players on the team, but it was Sulaimon who carried the load in this game.Where things really got interesting were the five man shifts. Coach K opted to take everyone on the court off, replacing them with five fresh bodies. Remember, Virginia is a borderline top 25 team at the moment; this was no walk in the park. As such, the move was a little surprising. For the first 11:26 of the first half and the first 8:18 of the second half, Duke substituted no fewer than five players each time. In that span, the Blue Devils outscored the Cavaliers 29-21 and held the opposition to a field goal percentage of 28 percent. Virginia didn't shoot great most of the night, shooting 38 percent from the field overall, but fresh bodies appeared to have an effect on the defensive end.Duke did not play great against the Cavaliers; however, the lineup shifts were refreshing to see from a team that historically has its stars worn down by the end of the ACC schedule. Keep an eye out for shifts such as these this Saturday against N.C. State; we may be seeing the start of something new for Coach K and the Blue Devils





Stat Chat: Share the Load

(01/02/14 2:10am)

____simple_html_dom__voku__html_wrapper____>Much of the discussion this year in regards to Duke's offensive game has surrounded freshman star Jabari Parker, and rightfully so. When you average 21.4 ppg and 8.0 rpg, you're going to garner some attention. However, most of the team's offensive success stems from superior ball movement.This season, there are five players with at least 20 assists: Quinn Cook (82), Tyler Thornton (30), Rodney Hood (26), Jabari Parker (24) and Rasheed Sulaimon (21). Despite changing to a slower paced offense in recent games, there has been no significant shift in assist totals thus far. In the team's first 12 games played, Duke dished out 203 assists, helping lead the way to converting on a total of 346 field goals. Over the same span in 2012, the Blue Devils dished out 19 fewer dimes and made nine fewer field goals. While such increases are not significant, as last year's squad proved to be capable of moving the ball just as well, it is worth noting the increase in efficiency when it comes to assisted field goals.From a sheer numbers perspective, the Blue Devils don't assist too many more made baskets than other schools; however, the assist to made field goal ratio is impressive. The Blue Devils have assisted 42 percent or more of their made field goals this season in every game. In half of their contests, Duke has assisted 62 percent or more of their made field goals. Overall, the assist-to-field goals made ratio is 58.7 percent, an increase of nearly four percent compared to last year's numbers (54.9 percent).The individual assists per minute ratio has also improved dating back to a season ago. Cook has blossomed into a great scoring threat for the Blue Devils, but his assist numbers have also improved, averaging 0.18 apm to lead the team. Cook and Thornton 0(.12 apm) have played well at point guard, but the guards overall have improved thanks to a slightly different offensive scheme.Last season, Coach K called for the inside-out offense, where a big man is fed the ball in the post before passing back out to an open shooter, allows forwards and centers to increase their assist numbers. For example, Mason Plumlee averaged 0.06 apm, while starting forward Josh Hairston averages only 0.04 apm in a scheme much more oriented towards slashing through the lane. It is for this reason that athletic players such as Rasheed Sulaimon have improved their passing numbers this season, jumping from 0.06 apm to 0.08 apm. However, overall, the differences between the current squad and the 2012 Blue Devils are small. The two eight men rotations yield 0.08 and 0.07 apm respectively. Statistics were rounded to the nearest hundredth, so some numbers may be a bit more jarring when rounded to, say, the nearest thousandth; however, we again have numerical evidence suggesting better ball movement as a team. Dunks are exciting; three-pointers are enthralling; but good team ball movement is what opens the door for so many of the highlight plays Duke fans have been spoiled with this season.


Stat Chat: Run Forest, Run!

(12/25/13 11:45pm)

____simple_html_dom__voku__html_wrapper____>With less than a week until New Years Eve, Duke football is set to play its biggest game in more than 50 years. Against Texas A&M, the Blue Devils will need to play at a high level at every position; however, the absence of a Duke offensive starter will hurt the running game. No, I'm not talking about lead-rusher Jela Duncan; I'm referring to starting offensive tackle Perry Simmons.Simmons suffered torn ACL and MCL in his left knee during the ACC championship game loss to No.1 Florida State. The redshirt senior was a third-team All-ACC selection this year and has been a key reason for the improvement in the running game this season. The Blue Devils are averaging 173.7 rushing yards per game this season, the highest total in the Cutcliffe era. Simmons, as an offensive tackle, does not have a lot of "stats" to prove his importance to the team; however, he had started 50 consecutive games at right tackle, played 3,741 career snaps, and is a two-time All-ACC selection the past two seasons. Those numbers speak for themselves.In regards to the loss of Duncan, who was suspended for violation of the university academic policy, the loss is not as significant. Duncan led Duke in rushing this season with 43.2 yards per game. However, the Blue Devil rushing attack was never a one-trick pony. There are six Duke players that have attempted 50 or more rushing attempts this season: Duncan (113), Brandon Connette (99), Josh Snead (90), Anthony Boone (61), Shaquille Powell (60), and Juwan Thompson (53). All four Blue Devil running backs average 4.8 yards per carry or more. While Duncan leads the team in rushing attempts, his yards per carry average (5.0) falls shy of both Snead (6.1) and Powell's (5.6).Duncan has acted as only one part of a three-headed rushing attack. The sophomore's best game of the season came against Miami. Duncan rushed for 98 yards on 16 carries. However, even in that game, Snead rushed for 138 yards and Powell rushed for 59 yards and a touchdown on a combined 16 carries. Since the Miami game, the number of rushes per running back are nearly identical:



Stat Chat: Look at the time

(12/24/13 9:19pm)

____simple_html_dom__voku__html_wrapper____>Duke and UCLA play largely the same way. Both teams score a lot of points, while struggling to stop opponents from scoring on the other end of the court. Struggling may be the understatement of the century, as the Blue Devils rank 268th in the nation in opponent field goal percentage this season, allowing 45 percent shooting. So how did Duke manage to hold the Bruins' high-powered offense to 63 points? It all comes down to the pace of play.One of UCLA's strengths is getting down the floor quickly and scoring before the defense has time to react. In the first half, the Bruins averaged 12.9 seconds per possession (SPP) on made field goals. More than half of these baskets came in the paint, where UCLA scored at a rate of 10.6 seconds per two-point field goal. Considering the Bruins scored only four fast break points in the first half, scoring at such a rapid rate is impressive, especially since 64.3 percent of the team's made baskets were assisted.The Bruins couldn't find the same speed in the second half, averaging 15.8 SPP on made baskets and 23.5 SPP on made three-pointers. Credit the Blue Devils' ability to get in the passing lanes as a major reason why. Duke forced eight turnovers and UCLA assisted a mere 30.0 percent of made field goals.Of course, I'd be remiss not to point out the biggest difference was the amount of long rebounds UCLA gathered from Duke's missed 3-point attempts. The Blue Devils shot a season-high 32 3-pointers in the game, a strategy that had many scratching their heads early. There was a sequence in the first half where Duke proceeded to shoot and miss five 3-pointers and turn the ball over four times in a nearly five minute span (11:58-7:16). The Bruins ended up going on a 14-5 run.The solution to the problem was taking their time on the offensive end. The Blue Devils SPP on made baskets overall and from deep changed by less than a second; however, the SPP on made three point baskets (18.91) is far greater than the SPP on missed three point shot attempts (14.71). Duke moved the ball well the entire game, but taking the extra time to find a quality shot made the difference in the second half. Despite drops in overall assisted field goals, from 73.33 to 62.50 percent, the Blue Devils were able to work the ball inside and free up perimeter shooters for easier looks. Duke is very athletic and has plenty of perimeter shooters, but we saw against UCLA that playing tough defense and being patient in the half court set can prove to pay higher dividends than trying to get out in transition and sometimes neglecting defensive responsibilities. The Blue Devils will probably not shoot 32 3-pointers again, but as long as the offense is set properly, let the 3-point attempts fly.


Stat Chat: The Rasheed Sulaimon Enigma

(12/11/13 8:45pm)

____simple_html_dom__voku__html_wrapper____>As Duke approaches the eye of the storm that is the Blue Devil's tough schedule, questions have started to develop surrounding the team. Will Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood have to carry the load every game? Is Quinn Cook one of the best point guards in the nation? What exactly is this Duke team's identity? Rather, will it focus on the defensive end or try to use an uptempo offensive scheme? However, the question one everyone's mind is this: What the heck is up with Rasheed Sulaimon?The sophomore came into the season with the potential to be a first round pick in the NBA draft following the season. After all, following a solid freshman campaign and with a style of play, athletic and aggressive, that seemingly fit in well with this year's squad, the topic was relevant. However, nine games into the season, Sulaimon's play on the court, or lack thereof, has been a mystery.Let's start with a breakdown of his overall stats thus far. Sulaimon currently is averaging 7.1 points per game, 2.5 rebounds per game, 1.3 assists per game, and 0.8 steals per game. To put those numbers into perspective, nine games into to 2012-13 campaign, the Houston native averaged 11.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.9 apg, and 0.8 spg. The major difference is his offensive efficiency. Sulaimon is shooting 36.2 percent from the field and 31.3 percent from three-point range, in contrast to shooting 41.9 and 40.0 percent in each of those respective categories at this point a season ago. In addition, he's also playing 6.7 minutes per game fewer than he did a year ago.The major difference has been the amount of shots Sulaimon has taken. In nine games thus far, the sophomore has taken 47 field goals, 16 of which were 3-pointers, almost half of the total field goals taken and less than half of the total three-pointers taken last season (93 and 40). Based on minutes played per game, the sophomore is shooting 0.23 times per minute played. That's 0.12 less than his shots per minute played average from 2012-13. I'll leave you with this statistic: Rasheed Sulaimon shot 12 or more times six times over his first nine games as a freshman. This season, zero times. Whether Sulaimon is in the proverbial "doghouse" or not is up for debate, but a player of his caliber should be doing more on the basketball court. If Duke wants to secure a fifth national championship, the team will need better play from Sulaimon.


Stat Chat: I'll Take That

(12/10/13 8:47pm)

____simple_html_dom__voku__html_wrapper____>Let's get the obvious out of the way: Florida State dominated in nearly every facet of the game last weekend in the ACC championship, but there are aspects of the game that are important to build on going into an exciting matchup against No. 20 Texas A&M. Duke's defense held the Seminoles to zero points in the first quarter for the first time this year; the Blue Devil offense possessed the ball more over the course of the game; and, most importantly, Duke forced three turnovers in the game.Looking ahead to the matchup against the Aggies, many critics have denounced the defenses for both squads, predicting a shootout in Atlanta. However, playing No. 1 Florida State and playing against Johnny Football and Texas A&M will be different. The biggest separation between the two teams is that Florida State hasn't played a "bad" game all year. The Aggies have played two...and they happen to be the last two games they've played.Texas A&M averages a whopping 43.6 points per game this season, the sixth highest total in the FBS. Further analysis of the team's recent play, however, shows that this is not the same high flying offense audiences have gawked at all year. The Aggies averaged 49.2 points per game before scoring a total of 31 points against LSU and Missouri the past two contests. Manziel scored at least two touchdowns in each of the first 10 games, but has scored only two in the last two games combined, while also throwing two interceptions. The defenses for the Tigers 1 and Tigers 2 are solid, but Alabama and Auburn have equally stingy defenses and the Aggies scored a combined 83 points on the Crimson Tide and Tigers 3. Where the game could be decided in Atlanta is the turnover battle. Duke's improved defense the second half of the season was showcased nationally in the first 15 minutes of the ACC championship. The Blue Devils forced two turnovers in the first half, allowing only 17 points to Heisman finalist Jameis Winston. The Aggies turnover ratio is only 1.05-to-1, but 12 of the team's 21 total turnovers have come in the past five games. Duke has forced 12 of the team's total 26 turnovers during that same span.While turnovers may turn in the Blue Devils' favor, the squad will have to limit big plays from the Texas A&M offense. In Duke's three losses, the defense has given up 18 touchdowns, 15 of which were scored from 10 or more yards away. Those 18 scores have also gone for an average of 23.6 yards per touchdown. With ALL-SEC wide receiver Mike Evans, the Aggies have more than just big rushing plays from Manziel. Evans averages 20.3 yards per reception and has 12 touchdowns on the year. Translation: Duke's defense will have to keep Evans in check in order to maintain defensive success.All of the talk about Texas A&M's high powered offense and the team's experience playing SEC defenses has overshadowed the quality play of Duke's defense this season. If the Aggies plays like they have in recent weeks, don't be shocked if this game becomes a low-scoring affair in a hurry.


Stat Chat: Two Headed Monster

(11/27/13 10:23pm)

____simple_html_dom__voku__html_wrapper____>So often in this column we break down statistical anomalies that directly impact Duke's chances of winning or losing as a team. Today, we delve into individual players—namely Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood. The first year duo has combined to average an eye-popping 44.8 points per game this season, while also ranking in the top three on the team in rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. What the two have accomplished thus far in this young season is quite impressive, which is why I'm going to make the case that this may be the most dynamic scoring duo in the Mike Krzyzewski era.Let's first break down some of the best individual scoring seasons players have had under Coach K at Duke. There have been 17 Blue Devils to average at least 20 points per game over the course of a season 29 times in school history. Seven players have combined for nine seasons averaging at least 20 points per game since the 1980-81 season. Five of those seven players—Johnny Dawkins, Danny Ferry, Christian Laettner, Jason Williams and JJ Redick—have their jerseys hanging in the rafters. Williams (21.6/21.3) and Redick (21.8/26.8) averaged more than 20 points per game twice in their careers. All of these players were in their junior or senior year of college in all but one those seasons, with Jason Williams' sophomore season acting as the lone exception.But how many times have two teammates averaged 20 points per game in the same season in Duke history? Over the course of 108 years of Duke men's basketball, this has happened only three times. The early 1960's brought two Blue Devil legends, Art Heyman and Jeff Mullins, together. Both averaged 20 points per game three times over the course of their careers, doing it at the same time during the 1961-62 and 1962-63 seasons. Incredibly, Heyman and Mullins never averaged less than 20 points per game in their tenure at Duke. Jim Spanarkel and Mike Gminski accomplished the feat during the 1977-78 season. Not only were the individual numbers impressive, but they translated to success in the win column as well. Heyman and Mullins made it to the Final Four in 1963, winning the third place game against Oregon State. Spanarkel and Gminski made it to the national championship game before dropping the final to Kentucky. When you look at the Duke teams that have had, say, five players average double digits versus having a few alpha dogs, the numbers are good; really good. There have been eight seasons where this has been the case, resulting in six NCAA tournaments and three national championships. However, don't be fooled by these statistics alone. The 1991 and 1992 championship teams had Laettner average 19.8 and 21.5 points per game respectively. The 2001 championship squad nearly had the fourth 20 points per game duo in Duke history with Jason Williams (21.6) and Shane Battier (19.9). Playing as a team and receiving quality play from role players is important, but the leadership of a lethal scorer can make all of the difference in big games.Bringing the topic of conversation back to Duke's current dynamic duo, there's no question this team is capable of making a run at a title. Perhaps the biggest reason is that Parker and Hood would be the first pair in school history to average 20 points per game or more in their first season with Duke. With players like Quinn Cook, Rasheed Sulaimon, Andre Dawkins and Amile Jefferson, don't be shocked if three more players average double digit points by the end of the year. Parker and Hood are expected to leave for the NBA soon, so it's unlikely either will end up with their jerseys hanging from the rafters of Cameron Indoor Stadium. However, they're on pace for a special season, one that may end up with a few banners in due time.


They Can't Handle the D...fense

(11/26/13 9:17pm)

____simple_html_dom__voku__html_wrapper____>The phrase "defense wins championships" is often thrown around in regards to American football teams. It's simple: if a team stops the other team from scoring, they're probably going to win. We've seen over the years that sometimes a good offense is just as successful, but one of the most cliche sayings in the book has proven to ring true this season for Duke...in the second half anyway.All season, the Blue Devils have proven time and again that they are a second half team. The only quarter the team has been outscored in total points is the first, where opponents have scored 12 more points (75-63). From then on, Duke has averaged 104.7 total points scored over the final three quarters, suggesting it takes a while for the offense to wake up. What's even more impressive are the defensive numbers, specifically in the fourth quarter. In eleven games played this season, Duke has given up, wait for it, 34 points total in the fourth quarter. No, I'm not kidding. To further analyze this astonishing turnaround from a year ago, look no further than the Blue Devils' current seven-game winning streak. In the seven fourth quarters played, Duke has allowed a mere 13 points. In four of those games, the Blue Devils have shutout their opponents in the final quarter. In two games against ranked conference opponents, Duke has allowed three points in the fourth. For those keeping track at home, this team is pretty darn good in the final quarter of football games.But what has made the difference late in games? The numbers suggest the turnover margin. This season, the Blue Devils have forced 21 turnovers overall, with 14 interceptions, 14 forced fumbles, and seven fumbles recovered. The defense's play in the fourth quarter is the major reason why Duke's overall turnover margin is +2 on the season. Duke's defense has intercepted the opposing quarterback seven times in the fourth, accounting for half of the 14 total interceptions overall. Similarly, the Blue Devils have also recorded 42.8 percent of the total fumbles recovered (three out of seven) in the fourth quarter. While it should be noted that Duke's offense has turned the ball over a respectable 21 percent of the time in the fourth quarter, there is no doubt that defense has paved the way.The Blue Devil defense now will face it's toughest offensive opponent in months when they take on North Carolina this Saturday in Chapel Hill. Over the course of the Tar Heels' current five game win streak, the team has scored at least 27 points each time, averaging an eye-popping 44 points per game in that span (yes, that includes an 80 point outlier game last week against Old Dominion). How many times did UNC score at least 27 points in its first six games? Only twice. Two teams with lengthy win streaks will go into this weekend's rivalry game with at least one dominating unit; it will be the offense of the Tar Heels against the defense of the Blue Devils. To steal a line from the Joker in The Dark Knight, it's like "an unstoppable force meet[ing] an immovable object." Fans should be thankful for a matchup like this.