When asked about guarding Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood, North Carolina head basketball coach Roy Williams said it would be difficult, but more of a result of the matchup rather than the talent of the players themselves.
"If they play them at the four and five...their two biggest players on the team, it’s almost impossible for us to match up with them," Williams said. "They have 6-foot-8, 6-foot-9 [guys] that shoot the ball from the three and do it successfully; our 6-foot-8, 6-foot-9 guys don’t do that.”
It's well known that the Tar Heels struggle shooting the basketball, specifically from 3-point range. The team shoots 31.9 percent from behind the arc, ranking 11th in the ACC. To put that number in perspective, Duke shoots 42 percent from three, ranking first in Division I in that particular category. North Carolina also shoots an abysmal 62.4 percent from the free throw line, ranking dead last in the conference. Needless to say these are hardly the numbers one would expect from the second highest scoring team—75.8 points per game—in the ACC.
Where the Tar Heels thrive is scoring in the post. From 2-point range alone, North Carolina shoots nearly 50 percent. Throw in the fact that Duke allows 33 points in the paint per game and the Tar Heel big men could have a field day on offense.
Which bring us back to Coach Williams: a team that is so dependent on the play of bigs in the post, coupled with little focus on outside shooting, gives Duke a huge matchup advantage of their own on the offensive end. Part of what makes Parker and Hood so special, aside from their ability to drive and score in the paint, is their outside shooting. The dynamic duo has accounted for 34 percent of the team's 3-point field goals, scoring 79 in 24 games played—an average of 3.3 per contest. Also consider that when they do in fact drive and get fouled, Parker and Hood shoot 74.1 and 83.0 percent from the free throw line respectively. That's better than every Tar Heel player, with the exception of guard Marcus Paige.
Even when Parker or Hood doesn't have the ball in their hands, guarding Duke behind the arc is going to be a nightmare. Tyler Thornton (52.6), Rasheed Sulaimon (49.1), and Andre Dawkins (47.4) all have demonstrated sweet strokes from behind the arc, shooting a higher percentage than either Hood (45.0) or Parker (36.7). If you want to see how a team that doesn't defend well behind the arc fairs against the Blue Devils, look no further than the Syracuse game from a few weeks ago: Duke shot 15-for-36—41.7 percent—from 3-point land.
Based on the data alone, it's safe to say this will be a high-scoring affair. Both teams have at least five players scoring nine points a game; both teams move the ball extremely well, with the Blue Devils and Tar Heels averaging 15.6 and 15.7 assists per game. Just to add little something extra to rivalry, with a win tonight, Coach K—39-39 all-time against North Carolina—would have a winning record against the Tar Heels for the first time ever. The only question now is which team will capitalize on its offensive matchups more effectively. I'm not sure I know, but I can't wait to watch.
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