Stat Chat: Run Forest, Run!

With less than a week until New Years Eve, Duke football is set to play its biggest game in more than 50 years. Against Texas A&M, the Blue Devils will need to play at a high level at every position; however, the absence of a Duke offensive starter will hurt the running game. No, I'm not talking about lead-rusher Jela Duncan; I'm referring to starting offensive tackle Perry Simmons.

Simmons suffered torn ACL and MCL in his left knee during the ACC championship game loss to No.1 Florida State. The redshirt senior was a third-team All-ACC selection this year and has been a key reason for the improvement in the running game this season. The Blue Devils are averaging 173.7 rushing yards per game this season, the highest total in the Cutcliffe era. Simmons, as an offensive tackle, does not have a lot of "stats" to prove his importance to the team; however, he had started 50 consecutive games at right tackle, played 3,741 career snaps, and is a two-time All-ACC selection the past two seasons. Those numbers speak for themselves.

In regards to the loss of Duncan, who was suspended for violation of the university academic policy, the loss is not as significant. Duncan led Duke in rushing this season with 43.2 yards per game. However, the Blue Devil rushing attack was never a one-trick pony. There are six Duke players that have attempted 50 or more rushing attempts this season: Duncan (113), Brandon Connette (99), Josh Snead (90), Anthony Boone (61), Shaquille Powell (60), and Juwan Thompson (53). All four Blue Devil running backs average 4.8 yards per carry or more. While Duncan leads the team in rushing attempts, his yards per carry average (5.0) falls shy of both Snead (6.1) and Powell's (5.6).

Duncan has acted as only one part of a three-headed rushing attack. The sophomore's best game of the season came against Miami. Duncan rushed for 98 yards on 16 carries. However, even in that game, Snead rushed for 138 yards and Powell rushed for 59 yards and a touchdown on a combined 16 carries. Since the Miami game, the number of rushes per running back are nearly identical:

  • Duncan: 22 carries, 77 yards
  • Snead: 22 carries, 67 yards
  • Powell: 23 carries, 122 yards
But what about scoring? Duncan leads all running backs on the team with three rushing touchdowns this season. However, the running backs aren't the ones scoring on the ground; it's the quarterbacks. In goal line situations, Connette and Boone will often get the call, as is evident by their 17 total rushing touchdowns this season. In the Miami game just mentioned, Connette scored four touchdowns on the ground alone.

All of these numbers are not meant to discredit Duncan's accomplishments this season; rather, the purpose is to stress that the loss of one running back should not cause panic among the Duke faithful. Losing Simmons will be tougher to overcome, given his experience and the lack thereof for his likely replacement, Lucas Patrick. Regardless, the Blue Devil running game will still be a force to be reckoned with against the Aggies.

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