After falling short a touchdown last week in their loss to North Carolina, the Blue Devils return to the field against Miami at Hard Rock Stadium Saturday afternoon. Ahead of the contest, the Blue Zone has you covered with our can't-miss prop bets:
Duke vs. Miami (+9)
After two disappointing losses in a row, including a last-minute heartbreaker against rival North Carolina, Duke finds itself out on nine points by sportsbook oddsmakers. On the road facing off against Miami, the line would suggest that Duke faces one of its toughest matchups of the season to date.
However, many signs point to Duke having an edge in this matchup. The Blue Devils’ offense got back on track last weekend, accounting for 542 yards of total offense and five touchdowns. By comparison, the Miami offense struggled to finish drives against Virginia Tech, a team currently sporting a 2-5 record, and scored just 20 points. Currently averaging 7.8 penalties, the Hurricanes committed 17 penalties for 159 yards, adding to their notoriety as one of the most penalized teams in college football.
On the defensive side of the ball, Duke also has the talent to shut down the explosive Miami wide receivers and can pressure quarterback Tyler Van Dyke with stud defensive tackle DeWayne Carter. While Miami’s defense has been solid, especially up front, its secondary struggled at times this season. The Hurricanes allowed North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye to toss for 309 yards and Middle Tennessee quarterback Chase Cunningham to throw for 408 yards, both at Hard Rock Stadium.
Miami is also 1-4 in its last five games against the spread while Duke is 2-3. Expect a hungry Duke side to cover and win the contest.
Pick: Duke +9
Over/Under 58.5
Duke and Miami both have talented quarterbacks who can move the ball up and down the field. Miami quarterback Van Dyke has finally found his footing over the last two weeks, passing for 847 yards. Meanwhile, Riley Leonard passed for 245 yards last weekend, averaging nearly 12 yards per completion.
However, both teams have had some issues finishing drives once in the red zone. Miami has only scored a touchdown on 19-of-32 red zone drives, while Duke has not been similar: only 19-of-33 red zone drives ended in six points.
Securing the touchdown is the highest priority to maximizing points and hitting the over. Considering Duke has hit the under in seven of its last eight away games, don't expect this final score to be any different.
Pick: Under
Duke over/under 5.5 first quarter points
When the Duke offense is succeeding in its production, it is nearly unstoppable: The Blue Devils have scored a first-quarter touchdown in every game this season except in the uncharacteristic loss to Georgia Tech. The Duke passing game should get into a comfortable rhythm early, aided by the prowess of running back Jordan Waters, who earned the third-highest Pro Football Focus grade for running backs in the nation Monday at 85.3. Although the Miami defensive front has the ability to wreak havoc, the talent of the Blue Devils’ offensive line combined with Leonard's mobility has allowed very few plays to blow up. So far they have only allowed nine sacks on the season. Look to see Duke scoring a touchdown in its first or second drive, comfortably putting it over the first-quarter team total.
Pick: Over
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