Two years ago, 5-5 North Carolina traveled to take on 8-2 Duke for a primetime Thursday night game at Wallace Wade Stadium.
The Tar Heels were six point underdogs but dealt the Blue Devils a 45-20 setback by dominating in all facets of the game.
North Carolina built on its 4-2 finish to the 2014 regular season last year, posting an 11-1 record and running away with the ACC Coastal Division with a perfect mark in conference play before losing to Clemson in the ACC Championship game. Now, the Tar Heels will return to the site of their 2014 triumph as a 7-2 team hoping to keep pace with Virginia Tech in its bid for another division title.
No. 15 North Carolina will look to notch its third straight blowout win against Duke Thursday night and appears to be peaking in November for the second straight year. Since losing 34-3 to the then-No. 25 Hokies Oct. 8 in the midst of Hurricane Matthew, the Tar Heels have rattled off three straight wins, including 20-point blowouts against Virginia and Georgia Tech—teams that have already beaten Duke this season.
Led by junior quarterback Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina's offense averages more than 450 yards per game, and star running back Elijah Hood has given the Tar Heels even more weapons in the backfield with counterpart T.J. Logan. Against the Yellow Jackets, Hood had three touchdowns in a 48-20 romp. The junior also ran for three scores against the Blue Devils last year as part of his breakout 1,463-yard season but was hampered early this year by a number of injuries.
“[Hood’s] as close to 100 percent as he’s been all year, and that means going all the way back to [training] camp. He’s really feeling good now,” North Carolina head coach Larry Fedora said in his press conference after Saturday's game. “He feels good about the way he’s running the football.”
With Hood inconsistent early in the year, Logan stepped up, racking up 506 yards and seven touchdowns this season to complement Hood’s 644 yards and eight touchdowns. The elusive tandem makes North Carolina even harder to stop because of Trubisky's accuracy as a first-year starter—he has thrown 19 touchdowns against just two interceptions and leads the league with a 70.3 completion percentage.
Duke head coach David Cutcliffe did not hold back when asked about Trubisky, who has thrown for at least 295 yards without an interception in every ACC game but the loss to Virginia Tech.
"There's not a throw he can't make," Cutcliffe said. “He's poised, knowledgeable, really accurate throwing the ball, quick, strong, he keeps his eyes down field [and] he manages every aspect of their game."
The 6-foot-3, 220-pound quarterback is surrounded by a crop of dangerous receivers, including senior wideout Ryan Switzer, who doubles as one of the most dangerous returners in the country. Switzer ranks in the top three in the ACC in both receptions and receiving yards, and opened last year's 66-31 rout against the Blue Devils with an 89-yard touchdown catch.
The other two receivers—Bug Howard and Austin Proehl—have also put up big numbers this season, albeit in vastly different fashions. At 5-foot-10, Proehl is one of Trubisky’s possession receivers, and Howard utilizes his 6-foot-5 frame to out-leap opposing cornerbacks in the end zone as a focal point of the team's red zone offense. Switzer, Howard and Proehl average about 200 receiving yards per game combined.
Fedora and offensive coordinator Chris Kapilovic have blended all their options into a third-down conversion machine. The Tar Heels rank ninth in the nation in third-down conversion percentage, reaching the first-down marker on nearly half of their attempts.
“You have to be really good on third down against this team, and [Fedora and Kapilovic use] people well,” Cutcliffe said. “They have a lot of options.”
North Carolina has held up on the other side of the ball as well, as it ranks in the top half of the nation in points allowed per game, surrendering 26.2 points per contest. Led by cornerbacks M.J. Stewart and Des Lawrence, the Tar Heel defense only gives up 192.9 passing yards per game, though the team is the only Division I team without an interception this season.
Although they are tough against the pass, North Carolina has been vulnerable on the ground to the tune of 217.3 rushing yards per game despite having sophomore linebackers Andre Smith and Cole Holcomb—who have combined for 156 tackles. With Duke starting running back Shaun Wilson listed as probable heading into Thursday’s matchup, the Blue Devils will look to exploit one of their rival’s few weaknesses after amassing 227 rushing yards last week against Virginia Tech, including a career-best 99 by starting quarterback Daniel Jones.
To knock off North Carolina for the first time since 2013’s 27-25 victory to clinch the ACC Coastal Division, Duke will need major contributions all over the field, but particularly in the running game in order to keep Trubisky and company off the field.
The Blue Devils have been double-digit underdogs before this season, and once again hope to keep another game close before finally getting over the hump.
“Last year was last year. We’re going to do everything we can to come out of the [gates fast] this year,” redshirt senior defensive tackle A.J. Wolf said. “We’re not looking at anything in the past other than that we lost and that they beat us.”
Amrith Ramkumar contributed reporting.
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