Saturday afternoon’s showcase between Duke and Notre Dame in South Bend, Ind., features a battle of under-performing teams. Although both are worse than .500 at 1-2, the season’s outlook for each team varies greatly. The Fighting Irish, who were ranked as highly as No. 10 this season, has little hope of a playoff bid, but a bowl game is still well within reach. The Blue Devils, conversely, are projected to finish with three wins on the year – a big step down from last year’s victory against Indiana in the Pinstripe Bowl. Here are three keys for Duke if it wants to right the ship against a superior opponent:
Get on the board early
It’s no secret that Notre Dame is expected to win this game. In what will be the biggest challenge for Duke’s defense so far, it would serve the Blue Devils well to get on the board early to relieve some pressure. After an offensive explosion in Week 1 against N.C. Central, reality has quickly—and noticeably—set in for Duke. Moving the ball down the field is not the problem—the Blue Devils have at least 350 yards of offense in all three contests to date. The problem is their inability to capitalize on big plays or turnovers forced by the defense, which is reflected in low score totals against Wake Forest and Northwestern. Faced with by far their strongest opponent yet, a lead going into the second quarter, or perhaps even halftime, could provide the momentum necessary for an upset.
Limit big plays by Notre Dame offense
As Duke’s offense stagnates, the Fighting Irish continue to produce. They have amassed 114 points through three games, an impressive tally considering two of those games were against ranked opponents. With 13 total touchdowns so far this season, redshirt sophomore quarterback DeShone Kizer has gone from a backup to a Heisman contender in just one year. He is the architect behind a Notre Dame offense averaging 430 yards per game and has the talent to influence the outcome of a game with a single play.
Big plays have hurt Duke’s defense, leading both Wake Forest and Northwestern to outgain the Blue Devils. Demon Deacon true freshman running back Cade Carney broke loose for a 55-yard touchdown run two weeks ago, and quarterback Clayton Thorson threw three long touchdown passes last Saturday. For Duke to stay competitive Saturday, they will need to contain Kizer and Notre Dame’s array of playmakers.
Stop the mistakes
The argument can be made that Wake Forest and Northwestern did not beat Duke—rather, Duke beat itself. Red zone inefficiency, negative turnover margins, missed field goals and a glut of penalties do not spell success for football teams with a schedule as difficult as Duke’s. With negative margins in both turnovers and penalties for all three games, it’s easy to understand the Blue Devils' losing streak. The Fighting Irish, meanwhile, have protected the ball well, turning it over only four times compared to Duke’s 10. Capitalizing on a potential Notre Dame mistake and not providing the Fighting Irish the opportunity to do the same will keep the score close.
In addition, the Blue Devil offense needs to find more success in the red zone. Coming in at just worse than 70 percent efficiency inside the 20-yard line, Duke—and especially freshman kicker AJ Reed—will have to be near perfect against a Notre Dame team which scores 93 percent of the time it reaches the red zone. The Blue Devils have the talent to hang with the Fighting Irish. They just need what they have consistently lacked—consistency.
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