A year ago, Duke's win against Virginia was one of the turning points of the season and propelled the Blue Devils to a strong close to conference play. Duke will look to replicate the outcome at Cameron Indoor Stadium Saturday afternoon against the Cavaliers. Here are three keys to the game:
Find the range from deep
For the Blue Devils to upset No. 7 Virginia and its stout defense, Duke will have to firing on all cylinders. Only once in ACC play—a Jan. 6 win against Wake Forest—has the team shot less than 20 3-pointers, and it is no stretch to think that the Blue Devils will eclipse the 20-attempt mark against the Cavaliers. Considering Virginia only allows 21.7 points per game in the paint—the lowest among major conference teams—and Duke is still without big man Amile Jefferson, the Blue Devils will need to score in other ways to keep the game close.
This season, Duke has shot 39 percent from 3-point range, with several games in which the Blue Devils’ percentage has hovered near 50 percent. For Duke to pull of the upset Saturday and come away with a resume-boosting victory, it will need to have one of its better shooting days from beyond the arc.
Pressure the ball
Led by senior guard Malcolm Brogdon, the Virginia offense leads the conference with 50 percent shooting from the field. Duke will need to disrupt the Cavaliers’ offense and force them to take low percentage and heavily contested shots if the Blue Devils are going to win Saturday. For the undersized Duke squad to prevent Virginia’s pair of prolific big men—redshirt senior Anthony Gill and senior Mike Tobey—from getting the ball near the hoop, the Blue Devils will need to pressure the ball on the perimeter.
Freshman Derryck Thornton will need to turn in one of his best performances of the season and he will have his work cut out for him against junior guard London Perrantes. Expect Thornton to defend Perrantes even beyond the three-point line and force him to make risky passes. If Virginia is able to feed its big men early and get easy looks in the paint, it will be tough for Duke to come back against the formidable Cavalier defense.
Limit turnovers
Virginia has held each of its last four opponents to 50 points or fewer, and boasts the third-lowest scoring defense in the country. Although Duke has shot the ball well of late, a hot hand means nothing if the team never gets the opportunity to shoot. Thornton and sophomore Grayson Allen will be marked by Virginia’s quick-footed and explosive duo of Perrantes and Brogdon—the latter of whom is a serious candidate for the Wooden Award.
The Blue Devil ball-handlers will need to be smart and careful against the Cavaliers and prevent Virginia from turning mistakes into quick points on the other end. If the Blue Devils wish to overcome the Cavaliers' stingy defense, they cannot waste possessions. Duke will need to limit turnovers in order to secure a victory against one of the best teams in the conference Saturday.
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Jacob Weiss is a Trinity senior. His column, "not jumping to any conclusions," runs on alternate Fridays.