Amid all the talk about Duke Basketball—how far the team can go this year, whether the program has taken a step back in the past five years, how many people need to sleep in a tent for two months to get the best seats in Cameron for the Carolina game—the beginning of the season is a good time to point out the obvious: Beyond talent, you need some incredible luck to win a national title in college basketball.
It’s the nature of a 64-team, single-elimination tournament. In the NBA a team can lose three games against each opponent it faces in the playoffs and still win a series in the Finals. During March Madness, teams have to hope they don’t catch the wrong team at the wrong time like a piping-hot Villanova squad that happens to peak at the best possible time.
While luck is a significant factor on the court, putting together a team even capable of making such a run in the era of players fleeing college basketball early for the NBA requires a certain type of fortune of its own. What if Luol Deng had returned for his sophomore season in 2003-2004 and point guard Shaun Livingston had ever arrived on campus? Duke could have trotted out a starting five of Livingston, J.J. Redick, Daniel Ewing, Deng and Shelden Williams with Sean Dockery, DeMarcus Nelson, and David McClure coming off the bench. Or what if John Wall decided on Duke and his presence convinced Gerald Henderson to take one more shot at a title?
Many critics of the Duke program insist that the Blue Devils have taken a substantial step back since last making the Final Four in 2004. But had either one of those scenarios worked out, Duke would have been the favorite to win a national title.
Looking into the immediate future, the possibility of commitments from top-five recruits Kyrie Irving and Harrison Barnes would immediately put Duke back into the discussion of national title favorites. Any program that is one or two pieces away from a national title hasn’t fallen off too far. (For karma’s sake, Irving would be a real gem. New Jersey point guards—namely Bobby Hurley and Jay Williams—have led Duke to all its national titles.)
In an article for CBS Sports, Gary Parrish failed to acknowledge that even though Duke hasn’t been to a Final Four in five years, it has been only a few breaks away. “Coach K hasn’t sniffed a national title in a while,” Parrish wrote. “It’s a direct result, I think, of putting too much emphasis on character and intangibles -- i.e., so-called ‘good and smart kids’ -- in recruiting and not enough emphasis on just getting badass ballers who can run and jump at an elite level.”
Parrish’s view of the lack of recent success in March as an institutional problem ignores the role of chance that is just as significant of a factor.
Krzyzewski had a point at preseason media day when he noted that when this decade ends, Duke will have won more games in the past ten years than any other program has ever won in a single decade. Sure, a national title should always be the golden standard of success, but in college basketball sometimes the best you can do is keep your team in contention and hope for a few breaks.
Krzyzewski certainly is aware that this sort of criticism exists. When a student in Page Auditorium asked if the team would run more zone this season, Krzyzewski decided to use a bit of humor to make a point. “What kind of zone would you like me to run?” he asked. The critic was unsure how exactly to respond and didn’t answer. “Do you know how a zone works?” Krzyzewski followed up with a smirk. The audience erupted into laughter and applause. Krzyzewski made his point.
It’s easier to find fault with a team than to coach that team to a championship. Winning a title is not as simple as running a zone or recruiting “badass ballers” over character or intangibles. Winning in March requires a few breaks.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.