Qualifying for the NCAA tournament was supposed to be the easy part.
Last year, it was a foregone conclusion by this point in the ACC season that the Blue Devils would receive an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament. Duke received a No. 3 seed but was upset in the second round by Yale on a last-second goal.
Returning seven starters from that team this year, the Blue Devils were expecting a chance to reverse their postseason disappointment. But with an 8-6-2 record and just two regular season games remaining, Duke's postseason future is a lot more uncertain this time around.
"The last three years, we've been in already," head coach Robbie Church said. "Maybe this isn't the worst thing. Maybe this will harden us to make a deeper run if we get in the tournament."
A tough schedule and a midseason scoring drought have hurt the Blue Devils' record. Last Thursday's 3-2 loss to Clemson might have been the low point of Duke's season, as the team blew two leads in the second half.
Sunday's 3-1 come-from-behind win over then-No. 5 Florida State, though, may serve as the inspiration for the rest of the season.
"Sunday's win gave everybody a lot of confidence," senior Lauren Tippets said. "It made us realize how much we love playing together. I think it will really give us a boost."
The Blue Devils will need that push this weekend, when they play their final two ACC games of the year at Miami Friday night and at No. 20 Wake Forest Sunday. The two games, coupled with one guaranteed game in the ACC tournament Nov. 1, will likely determine whether Duke will make the 64-team tournament field-which will be announced Nov. 6.
"I think two out of three would probably get us in," Church said.
Duke has plenty of strengths on its resumé to balance its midseason slump. The brutally competitive schedule that hindered its record will be a major plus in the eyes of the selection committee-the Blue Devils played six teams that were ranked at the time.
In addition, they have three quality wins over those teams, with a chance to add another against the Demon Deacons. Duke's penchant for beating ranked teams bodes well if they do qualify for the tournament.
"We know that we can play with anyone in the country," Tippets said. "Even if we're not ranked, even if we're not at home, we still feel that we can go really deep in the tournament."
Despite its relative struggles this year, Duke still has an outside chance at finishing second in the log-jammed ACC. If Clemson and Florida State tie this weekend and Duke collects two wins, the Blue Devils will catapult to second place behind rival North Carolina.
If Duke does qualify for the NCAA tournament, it would have historical implications for the team's nine seniors. This year's senior class would be just the fourth class in Duke history to make the tournament in all four years.
"It would be heartbreaking for all of us if the seniors don't get in," Church said. "To be able to say that they played in the NCAA tournament four straight years-that's a great accomplishment for them."
In between games and practices the past few weeks, Church has been following the Major League Baseball postseason. In his perfect world, he would be able to compare his Blue Devils to the upstart St. Louis Cardinals-a team that barely sneaked into the playoffs and is now playing in the World Series.
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