Following a season when no team could hold on to the No. 1 ranking for long, when parity throughout the nation created unprecedented instability in the top 25 and when conferences which generally produce several Final Four-caliber squads were uncharacteristically anemic, the 2004 men's draw is wide open.
"We've played some eights that are pretty darn good, and I've said all along that I thought there were 20 teams that were capable of winning the whole thing, which puts you in a lot of competition," Stanford head coach Mike Montgomery said. "A lot of really nice records--25 wins, 26 wins, 23 wins in seven, eight, nine seeds. They know how to win and with the parity in college basketball without the obvious, big-time first round type guys, I think you are going to run into a good opponent early."
The tournament's No. 1 seeds come from a pair of different pedigrees. Stanford and St. Joseph's sat atop the polls for the latter part of the season and garnered No. 1 seeds, but with strength of schedule rankings of 104 and 42 respectively, they are two of the most untested bracket headliners the tournament has seen in years. On the other hand, Duke (27-5) and Kentucky, the tournament's overall No. 1, are products of the nation's best two conferences and were awarded top seeds not because of wins but because each proved it was the best its league had to offer.
"We're big boys," Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski said. "We should be ready to go. I'm really proud of my guys to be No. 1 seed. You start out every season and you hope that you're going to be in the tournament and be a pretty good seed. But when you are a No. 1 seed, it means that you had a great year.... You can't get better than a No. 1 seed, and I wouldn't have said that this is your vintage No. 1 seed team."
A result of the variability in the top 25, late surges by some teams and an equivalent number of early March tumbles by others, seeding the teams in the draw was likely a challenge for the selection committee. Consequently, a number of four and five seeds are as capable of making a run to San Antonio as the No. 2 seeds.
The lower half of the South regional, the bracket atop which the Blue Devils sit, may be most exemplary of seeding meaning very little. North Carolina, which battled through a grueling ACC schedule with mild success, is a No. 6 seed that could land a spot in the Final Four, though its road could be as tough as any. Looming in the Tar Heels' quarter is Texas, a potential second round matchup for Roy Williams' team. Both seventh-seeded Xavier, the team that handed St. Joseph's its only loss of the season, and No. 10 Louisville, a team that hung around the top of the polls early but was hampered by injuries late, could prevent second-seeded Mississippi State from reaching the Sweet 16.
All the aforementioned teams could be potential regional final opponents for Duke, but other formidable foes lay in the Blue Devils' path. Arizona, a talented team that began the season ranked fourth, is a possible second-round opponent for Duke, but the Wildcats will have get past Seton Hall first.
A big advantage for the Blue Devils, who will begin their quest for a fourth national title tonight at 7:15 against Alabama State, is the close proximity of their subregional location--the RBC Center in Raleigh, just a few miles from Duke's campus.
"We've earned that," Krzyzewski said. "Nothing is given, you learn that. Especially since we played all three games in [the ACC] Tournament, it's helpful. We're going to need almost two days to recover before we get on the next thing."
And if the Blue Devils can survive Raleigh, they will move on to Atlanta for a likely Sweet 16 matchup with either Cincinnati or Big Ten regular season champion Illinois.
"There are tough teams in every bracket so we're not worried about that," Shavlik Randolph said. "Whoever is going to win the National Championship is going to have a tough road. Whoever we play, you know we've had a tough schedule this year, and I think we're going to be prepared."
The winner of the Atlanta regional will play the victor of a West region that includes a pair of ACC teams in N.C. State and Maryland with wins on their respective resumes that prove they are more than capable of going to San Antonio. Stanford, the nation's No. 1 team in the AP poll, and Connecticut, regarded by many as the most dangerous No. 2 seed, round out a formidable top four in the Phoenix regional. However, defending national champion Syracuse, seeded five, could meet Maryland in another notable second-round contest.
In the Midwest the selection committee rewarded Kentucky for earning the top-No. 1, giving them the clearest shot at the Final Four. Both Washington, a potential second-round opponent, and Kansas, a possible Sweet 16 challenger, have weaknesses that Tubby Smith's team can exploit.
Georgia Tech and Michigan State highlight the lower portion of the Midwest bracket. Gonzaga was rewarded for a two-loss season with a No. 2 seed, but the Bulldogs have not proven they are up to the challenge of the nation's toughest foes, losing to both Stanford and St. Joseph's earlier in the season. The Yellow Jackets and Spartans, two athletic run-and-gun teams which, unlike Gonzaga, have played against top-notch competition all season, could matchup in the third round; the winner has the best chance of keeping Kentucky out of the Alamodome.
A sharp contrast to the Midwest bracket, the East region is the most wide open. Five of the region's teams--St. Joseph's, Florida, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State and Wake Forest--have spent time in the top five and all could end up representing the region in San Antonio. As the sixth seed and winner of the Big Ten Tournament, Wisconsin also has the potential to land a spot in the Final Four.
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