Presidential Preview: Foreign policy

Editor's note: In advance of the 2024 presidential election, The Chronicle is breaking down each candidate’s stance on priority issues, examining their platform and political history to keep voters in the Duke and Durham community informed. This week, we take a look at foreign policy:

Editor’s note: Since the Israel-Hamas war has dominated recent news cycles, The Chronicle is dedicating a separate Presidential Preview to examining the major candidates’ plans on the issue. Trade and immigration will also be covered in separate installments.

As Election Day approaches, foreign policy is expected to play an important role in the presidential race. The current front-runners for both major parties — Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris — have espoused vastly different viewpoints on key issues such as the future of international alliances, competition with China and the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars.

In his 2017 to 2021 term, Trump pursued an “America First” policy that sparked a trade war with China and ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

More recently, the Biden-Harris administration has led the American response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war while contending with increased Chinese aggression on multiple fronts and the rise of authoritarianism worldwide.

The challenges currently facing the Biden-Harris administration are likely to continue into the next presidential term, but the two front-runners’ current plans for confronting these ongoing challenges have vastly different implications for the next four years.

Here’s what you need to know about foreign policy for the upcoming election.

Biden’s legacy and challenges on the horizon

China’s aggression remains a multifaceted threat as its recent behavior, such as a history of intellectual property theft and unfair trade practices, has led to greater economic competition with the U.S. Chinese President Xi Jinping continued the Belt and Road Initiative — China’s global infrastructure development project — and made diplomatic maneuvers to gain a foothold in Africa and the Middle East, which poses a threat to national security issues such as maintaining supply chains and U.S. influence abroad.

The administration has increasingly focused on the Indo-Pacific and Africa in countering China’s expansion. Biden’s policy of strengthening the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the U.S., Japan, Australia and India is designed to strengthen cooperation between democratic states that share a mutual interest in deterrence.

In late 2022, the Biden-Harris administration enacted several executive orders and pushed legislation to prevent China from making technological advances that would threaten national security, including export controls and the passage of the CHIPS and Science Act. Biden has largely maintained tariffs enacted by the Trump administration, continuing the U.S.-China trade war.

The administration also crafted the landmark 2021 AUKUS agreement between Australia, the U.S. and the United Kingdom — a naval submarine construction and technology sharing deal designed to build on longstanding naval ties and counter China’s growing military power.

Biden later hosted Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol at Camp David in 2023 and held separate state visits for both in an attempt to decrease tensions between the two countries and focus attention on North Korea and China. 

China has largely minimized or outright refused cooperation with the U.S. on global issues such as combating climate change while trade tensions persist. Another likely trend that will complicate matters further is the deepening alliance between Moscow and Beijing.

The Russia-Ukraine war

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 created significant economic and political repercussions for the United States and its allies, notably intensifying the 2021 global “energy crisis.” 

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Biden worked to rally American allies who had felt ignored by the previous administration, leading to a multilateral sanctions regime on Russia, an expansion of NATO through the ascension of historically neutral Sweden and Finland, and over $175 billion in aid to Ukraine to help repel Russian forces.

Although Ukrainian forces have been able to force a relative stalemate in the war and retain most of their territory, Western support for Ukraine — including in the U.S. — remains on shaky ground, with a recent poll showing that Americans are evenly divided on whether the U.S. is doing too much or not enough to support Ukraine.

Other issues

The Middle East has remained a challenge for American policymakers as the Israel-Hamas war continues. Earlier this year, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia made significant progress toward a civil nuclear deal and a security guarantee that would pave the way for Saudi Arabia’s recognition of Israel, building on the Biden administration’s goal of expanding the Abraham Accords, which were inked during his predecessor’s term. 

Biden hosted summits with foreign leaders that Trump shied away from, including a Leaders’ Summit on Climate in 2021, a U.S.-Africa Summit in 2022 and a state visit for Kenyan President William Ruto in 2024 to demonstrate commitments to cooperate on climate change and strengthen ties with Africa. 

The Biden-Harris administration has taken steps — to varying degrees of success — in engaging Latin America with its economic, anti-drug and pro-democracy agenda. More recently, the administration increased aid to Ecuador amid growing violence from drug cartels and denounced fraud in Venezuela’s disputed presidential election.

North Carolinian views on foreign policy, national security

According to a High Point University poll conducted in April, 73% of voters registered in North Carolina listed national security as “very important” for Washington, D.C., policymakers to deal with, second only to inflation at 76%. An additional 19% called national security “somewhat important” — only 9% of N.C. voters viewed national security as “not very important,” “not at all important” or were “unsure” of their stance. 

Voters gave Republicans an edge on national security, with 42% responding that Republicans would be better at handling the issue compared to 30% for Democrats.

Only 33% said the Russia-Ukraine war was very important, making it the second-lowest priority issue. Democrats and Republicans were ranked similarly in terms of handling the war: receiving 31% and 34%, respectively, and an additional 15% saying either party would handle the issue equally well.

Nationwide, voters ranked preventing terrorist attacks, reducing the flow of illegal drugs and preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction as top priorities for the long term, according to an April poll. Compared to 2018, voters have increasingly favored countering Chinese and Russian influence and deprioritized human rights and refugee assistance.

Kamala Harris

During her 2020 presidential campaign, then-Sen. Harris, D-Calif., accused Trump of “alienating our allies and ignoring the emerging threats we face.” As a candidate, she promised to instead “invest” in relationships with U.S. allies and promote international cooperation, including through the United Nations and the World Health Organization. She backed a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians and promised to end armed involvement in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.

While in the Senate, Harris criticized Trump’s China tariffs and the country’s human rights violations, although she promised to pursue cooperation and competition with China. 

The Democratic nominee’s 2024 foreign policy platform — which has not yet been released — is expected to largely align with Biden’s, albeit with some divergences.

Harris has adamantly supported Ukraine in its war against Russia and is expected to continue current policies promoting economic development in Africa. She has also aligned with Biden on China, advocating for “de-risking” from Beijing and accusing the country of “coercion” in the South China Sea. 

Compared to Biden, Harris has placed a greater emphasis on human rights, advocating for Uyghur Muslims and Hong Kong dissidents during her stint in the Senate. She has also been more outspoken than the president regarding the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, calling for a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip as early as March, along with increased humanitarian aid.

As vice president, Harris expressed support for “peace and stability” in Taiwan, visited Africa for a week in 2023 to promote the administration’s agenda of supporting economic development across the continent and launched a partnership with Caribbean nations to improve regional energy security. Throughout her three-and-a-half years in office, she completed 17 foreign trips.

Harris has been an important Biden surrogate on European policy, having led the U.S. delegation at the annual Munich Security Conference — Europe’s premier foreign and defense policy forum — for three years in a row. More recently, Biden dispatched Harris to a June 2024 peace summit held in Switzerland, where she announced over $1.5 billion in aid for Ukraine.

In 2021, Biden tasked the vice president with addressing “root causes” of migration as the country’s southern border crisis intensified. Harris’ approach included spearheading funding initiatives to strengthen entrepreneurship and economic security in the region and trying to dissuade illegal immigration by telling prospective Guatemalan migrants to “not come” to the U.S.

Her handling of the issue has been heavily criticized by Republicans, although her role in actually shaping immigration and border policy has been limited to engaging the private sector and foreign governments in Mexico and Central America.

In 2022 and 2023, Harris visited Southeast Asia to affirm existing commitments to U.S. allies including the Philippines and Thailand and promote the country’s position as a reliable economic and security partner at an international summit. Harris previously visited Singapore in 2021 to reassure Asian allies of the U.S.’ security commitments after its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Beyond her role as a surrogate and the many relationships she has developed with foreign leaders, particularly in the Middle East and Asia, Harris’ foreign policy role has arguably been less influential than some of her vice presidential predecessors, such as Biden and former Vice President Dick Cheney.

Her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, has also been a firm backer of Ukraine, having met the Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S. in February. During his time in Congress, Walz supported Israel. He has since condemned the Oct. 7 attack and called the humanitarian crisis in Gaza amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war “intolerable.”

Although relationships with allies improved over the course of Harris’ vice presidency, many remain wary of the possibility of Trump’s return to office and are bracing for a radically different foreign policy that, compared to Harris, would likely lead to less international cooperation across the board.

Donald Trump

Former President Donald Trump’s positions on foreign policy widely differ from Harris'. Trump has been branded a climate denier and is skeptical of multilateral alliances, which he believes do not favor U.S. interests.

His 2016 campaign broke with Republican orthodoxy on foreign policy, displaying blatant opposition to free trade, affinity for isolationism and anti-immigration views that dominated much of that election’s news cycle.

During his first term, Trump promised to follow through on his “America First” foreign policy doctrine, which focused on transactional bilateral relationships over international alliances, opposed free trade and prioritized combating Iran and China. Trump has pledged to enforce higher tariffs on China should he win reelection.

While ties with many allied heads of government and state — including those of Germany, France and Canada — grew strained over the course of Trump’s term, he built close working relationships with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who hosted Trump for a state visit in 2019, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. 

Trump also cultivated close relationships with leaders harboring far-right authoritarian tendencies, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, both of whom he hosted at the White House in 2019. Trump later endorsed Bolsonaro for reelection in 2021 and hosted Orbán at his home in Florida in March 2024.

A firm proponent of putting national interests first, the former president pulled the country out of the Paris Climate Accords, the Iranian nuclear deal, the United Nations Human Rights Council, the World Health Organization and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. He oversaw the beginning of the trade war with China and a deterioration in relations with European countries and traditional U.S. allies. 

Trump was also the first incumbent president to meet with the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, convening three times in an attempt to get North Korea to denuclearize, to no avail.

With the presidential race remaining close, many international allies are worried about what a second Trump term could mean for them, leading some to send high-ranking government officials to hold meetings with the former president. Trump has previously stated that Russia “can do whatever the hell they want” to NATO countries that do not meet military spending requirements.

His first term also saw the focus of U.S. foreign policy somewhat shift away from the Middle East, which had been at the center of national security agendas since the beginning of the War on Terror. 

Nevertheless, the U.S. remained heavily involved in the region’s numerous military and diplomatic conflicts. Trump’s Middle East policy included the ongoing fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which lost its de facto capital of Raqqa to U.S.-backed rebels in 2017, as well as continued ties with Saudi Arabia amid the government’s decision to assassinate dissident journalist Jammal Kashoogi in 2018.

His administration also moved the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, causing outrage in Arab countries, in addition to recognizing the Golan Heights as Israeli territory and building close ties with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In 2020, Trump brokered the Abraham Accords between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, in which the latter two countries agreed to recognize Israel. The agreement was later expanded to include Morocco and Sudan.

Trump promised a harder line on Iran, withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — colloquially known as the Iran Deal — struck during President Barack Obama’s second term.

He later ordered a controversial airstrike that killed Iranian military leader Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, which dramatically increased bilateral tensions. The Pentagon and The White House contended that Soleimani was “developing plans” to attack U.S. forces in the Middle East but were criticized for not informing congressional leadership beforehand or elaborating on the threat Soleimani posed.

In February 2020, the Trump administration finalized a deal with the Taliban to pull U.S. forces out of Afghanistan by May 2021 in exchange for the Taliban refraining from attacking American forces. The deal was made without consulting the Afghan government. 

The Biden-Harris administration later blamed the deal for the Taliban’s victory during the U.S. withdrawal.

Trump’s term saw U.S. troop numbers decline somewhat in the Middle East. But although the number of American troops in Afghanistan and Iraq fell, thousands more were deployed to the Persian Gulf to support Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states as Iran and its nonstate allies grew increasingly aggressive. 

Concerns about Russia continued throughout Trump’s term, with a 2018 summit in Helsinki yielding no progress and a statement from Trump disagreeing with the conclusion of the U.S. intelligence community that Russia interfered in the 2016 election. Trump frequently criticized NATO during his time in office, repeatedly making false claims that several member states failed to pay their “bills,” “dues” or “NATO fees.”

At one point, the then-president also withheld military aid to Ukraine to pressure them into investigating Biden on unsubstantiated bribery allegations.

Trump pushed a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement into the United States-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement in 2020, fulfilling a key campaign promise. The USMCA included stronger intellectual property protections, tighter labor standards and new auto industry requirements designed to benefit American automakers.

Trump’s selection of Sen. JD Vance of Ohio as a running mate raised eyebrows among congressional Republicans, several of whom are hawkish on foreign policy. Vance is a noted isolationist who quickly emerged as one of the Senate’s top opponents of aid to Ukraine, once saying he “[doesn’t] really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.” His role in a potential second Trump administration, particularly with regards to foreign policy, remains unclear.

Other candidates

Third-party candidates have outlined where they stand on some high-profile foreign policy issues, albeit less clearly and to a lesser extent than Harris and Trump.

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has criticized American involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war, stating that the war should be resolved through “negotiation.” Though, he has stopped short of saying he would end U.S. aid to the country if elected. He has also pledged to reduce military involvement abroad and defended Israel’s response to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.

Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver’s platform aims to “focus our foreign policy on peace.” He has expressed his intention to close all overseas bases, return all active-duty personnel to domestic bases, end all aid directed to nation-states at war — including Israel and Ukraine — and utilize trade as a bargaining chip for diplomatic relations.

Jill Stein, who is seeking the Green Party’s presidential nomination after previously being its nominee in the 2012 and 2016 elections, has largely refrained from outlining a specific policy but has said that she will refocus U.S. policy on human rights promotion and has criticized defense spending levels.

Independent candidate Cornel West has pledged to end NATO, cut defense spending and end further military aid to Ukraine, favoring peace negotiations instead. He has also voiced opposition to intervention in Haiti and armed support for Israel.

Editor’s note: Following the announcement that Kamala Harris would replace Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, this article was updated Aug. 9 with information regarding her foreign policy stance.

The original entry for Biden is below.

Joe Biden

Biden has presided over several consequential geopolitical events during his time in office, such as the decision to pull out from Afghanistan, the Russia-Ukraine war, China’s historically aggressive foreign policy and the Israel-Hamas war. 

If elected to a second term, Biden has pledged to continue combating Chinese influence, supporting Ukraine and deterring Russia, in addition to strengthening U.S. alliances and focusing on global issues without surrendering American power.

During his 2020 presidential campaign, Biden leaned on his extensive experience with foreign affairs, having served as chairman and ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in the early 2000s and later as the nation’s vice president from 2009 to 2017.

Biden was heavily involved in foreign affairs issues during his time in the Senate, focusing mainly on arms control during the 1970s. He voted against the Gulf War in 1991, supported American military involvement in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s and initially supported the invasions of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003. As a staunch supporter of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Biden was a fierce advocate for its expansion and supported Kosovo’s independence.

During his two terms, former President Barack Obama gave then-Vice President Biden a significant say on key issues, such as how to deal with an increasingly confrontational Russia and determining the role of the U.S. in the Middle East. Biden strongly advocated for military aid to Ukraine following Russia’s 2014 invasion of the Crimean Peninsula.

On his first day in office, Biden restored the U.S. to the Paris Climate Accords and the World Health Organization, both which Trump had previously withdrawn the country from. The moves were meant to demonstrate American re-engagement with the rest of the world and assert the Biden administration’s prioritization of climate change.

Biden has increasingly focused on the Indo-Pacific and Africa in countering China’s expansion. His policy of strengthening the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the U.S., Japan, Australia and India is designed to strengthen cooperation between democratic states that share a mutual interest in deterrence.

In late 2022, the Biden administration enacted several executive orders and pushed legislation to prevent China from making technological advances that would threaten national security, including export controls and the passage of the CHIPS and Science Act. Biden has largely maintained tariffs enacted by the Trump administration, which Biden has vowed to expand if he is reelected.

The Biden administration also crafted the landmark 2021 AUKUS agreement between Australia, the U.S. and the United Kingdom — a naval submarine construction and technology sharing deal designed to build on longstanding naval ties and counter China’s growing military power. 

Biden hosted Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol at Camp David in 2023 and held separate state visits for both in an attempt to decrease tensions between the two countries and focus attention on North Korea and China. 

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the incumbent worked to rally American allies who had felt ignored by his predecessor, leading to a multilateral sanctions regime on Russia, an expansion of NATO through the ascension of historically neutral Sweden and Finland as well as over $175 billion in aid to Ukraine to help repel Russian forces.

The Middle East has remained a challenge for American policymakers as the Israel-Hamas war continues. Earlier this year, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia made significant progress towards a civil nuclear deal and a security guarantee that would pave the way for Saudi Arabia’s recognition of Israel, building on the Biden administration’s goal of expanding the Abraham Accords, which were inked during his predecessor’s term. 

In moves reminiscent of his former running mate Obama, Biden hosted summits with foreign leaders that Trump shied away from, including a Leaders’ Summit on Climate and a U.S.-Africa Summit in 2022 to demonstrate American commitments to cooperate on climate change and strengthen ties with Africa. More recently, Biden hosted Kenyan President William Ruto for a state visit, as Kenya is a country the U.S. and China are both currently vying for influence in.

As immigration remains a significant concern for voters, Biden has taken steps — to varying degrees of success — in engaging Latin America with his economic, anti-drug and pro-democracy agenda. In 2022, some left-wing heads of government refused to attend the Summit of the Americans after Biden declined to invite Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela due to their authoritarian governments. More recently, the administration increased aid to Ecuador amid growing violence from gangs and drug cartels.

Although relationships with allies improved over the course of Biden’s term, many remain wary of the possibility of Trump’s return to office and are bracing for a radically different foreign policy that, compared to Biden, would likely lead to less international cooperation across the board.

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