Following Duke’s crushing loss to North Carolina in Cameron Indoor Stadium that capped off its regular-season slate, the squad now looks to bounce back in the ACC tournament. The Blue Devils’ 15-5 conference record earned them the No. 2 seed, trailing only the Tar Heels (17-3). Head coach Jon Scheyer’s team is set to face a dynamic range of ACC opponents, many of whom sit on the bubble for the NCAA tournament and hope to make their case via a strong run in Washington, D.C.
Starting with the squad’s first game in the quarterfinals, let’s dive into the potential matchups that stand in the way of a repeat ACC title for Duke.
Quarterfinals
The Blue Devils start off their tournament campaign against N.C. State Wednesday at 7 p.m. The No. 10-seed Wolfpack are looking to follow up on a strong first-round 94-85 win against Louisville and a second-round 83-65 victory against Syracuse.
N.C. State is led by graduate transfer DJ Horne. He averages 16.8 points per game on 42.8% from deep. The All-ACC Third Team guard is a high-volume shooter, having taken 29.6% of his team’s shots this season. In its last contest, Duke held Horne to just eight points, strategically opting to instead force the game through DJ Burns, who earned 27 points in the Blue Devils’ 79-64 win at PNC Arena. Though still working his way back following a hip injury in his last regular-season game, containing Horne and his complimenting backcourt pieces around the perimeter will be key for the Blue Devils.
The Wolfpack will come in tired as this will be their third game in as many days. Maintaining defensive intensity and playing quick could be critical in jumping ahead early. This would take pressure off and allow the Duke starters to gain some much needed rest on the bench to stay energized for subsequent games.
Semifinals
Should the Blue Devils advance, it will be set to face the winner of No. 3-seed Virginia and No. 11-seed Boston College.
The Eagles’ greatest advantage is their momentum. The team posted a lackluster regular season that lacked flashes of postseason potential. Yet Boston College won by over ten points in its opening two rounds of the tournament. Should it remain hot and make its way to the semifinals, watch out for Quinten Post. The seven-footer has been the brunt of the Eagles’ offense, leveraging his unique combination of size and ability on the perimeter to give defenses a headache. Sophomore center Kyle Filipowski found success in the matchup last time around, holding Post to just eight while scoring 16 himself.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have been a tough team to evaluate all season. At their best, they boast the seventh most efficient defense in the nation, according to KenPom. Powered by ACC Defensive Player of the Year Reece Beekman and All-ACC Defensive Team selection Ryan Dunn, they hold opponents to an average of 59.1 points per game and 40% shooting from the field. Yet Duke was able to dismantle this defense with ease. It posted 40 points in the first half alone, dominating with efficient scoring on all three levels. This effort was led by a combined 46 points on 66.4% from the floor out of the sophomore trio consisting of Filipowski, Tyrese Proctor and Mark Mitchell. Should they match up again, the Blue Devils would do well to leverage the perimeter gravity of Proctor, Jeremy Roach and Jared McCain and open up a variety of interior opportunities for the frontcourt, paving the way for efficient scoring amidst the suffocating Virginia defense.
Championship
The ACC title match provides the first opportunity for Duke to seek revenge against a team to which it has lost. Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and, of course, North Carolina headline these prospective final obstacles to cutting down the nets.
The scouting reports for No. 4-seed Pittsburgh and No. 5-seed Wake Forest look similar — don’t let the stars get hot. In each of the Blue Devils’ prior losses, they allowed the Panthers’ Blake Hinson and the Demon Deacons’ Hunter Sallis to explode. Hinson dropped 24 on a perfect 7-of-7 from deep and Sallis scored 29, shooting 11-of-13 from the floor including five made threes. The All-ACC First Team selections both have the capacity to completely take over the game with their tough shotmaking and endurance on the floor. Taking the contest out of their hands and forcing the supporting pieces to make plays under the bright lights should be the top priority in either matchup.
Saturday’s fight for a banner might also feature this season’s third round of the Tobacco Road rivalry. Duke was swept by North Carolina in the regular season, having led for a mere 16 seconds across both games. The key adjustment for this rematch is quite different — the team was successful both times around in limiting production from ACC Player of the Year RJ Davis. However, it came up short due to season-defining performances from Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan. Matching up with the Tar Heels demands defensive depth and limiting production from role players. The onus must fall equally on all five on the hardwood for the entire 40 minutes if the Blue Devils hope to grab their first win against North Carolina this season.
No matter how the bracket unfolds, Duke will be in for a competitive game against teams that have been trouble earlier in the season. Regardless of nuanced conversations surrounding the number of at-large bids that will be awarded to the ACC and perceptions of the conference’s strength, the fact of the matter is that any path through the tournament will be a gauntlet. The Blue Devils will have to show continued growth and season-high effort to come out on top with hardware on the line.
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