No. 9 Duke faces its last — and biggest — test of the regular season Saturday evening at Cameron Indoor Stadium, welcoming historic rival and national No. 7 North Carolina. With an ACC regular-season title on the line, The Chronicle’s beat writers are here to offer their forecasts for what promises to be a chaotic evening:
Andrew Long: Duke 83-79
How teams match up on paper is rarely an apt predictor for Duke-North Carolina games, but it’s all I have to go off of. That said, I’m most curious to see how Duke rectifies its follies from last month in Chapel Hill. Armando Bacot has been a force in this rivalry for a long time now, whether it be that famous day in March 2022 or the matchup earlier this season. But if I’m the Blue Devils I’m far more worried about one of RJ Davis or Harrison Ingram getting hot from the perimeter. To its credit, Duke has been exceptional at doing that recently, and has seemingly found a bit of secret sauce in its defensive shape, adding Sean Stewart’s elite athleticism into the mix with Kyle Filipowski and Mark Mitchell. None of those guys will likely be able to shut Bacot down the way Dereck Lively II did a year ago, but maybe they can do just enough to keep him honest while also not forcing a sacrificial double-team that opens up Davis and Ingram.
That’s where the onus falls to Tyrese Proctor, Jeremy Roach and Jared McCain. Duke’s guards will need to produce in volumes if the Blue Devils want to win this thing. McCain’s ability from deep provides an immense threat in transition and Roach has been here many times before, but Proctor needs to make a mark beyond just two points this time around. I still hold reservations about how Duke matches up with North Carolina and how nebulous this rivalry always seems to be, but the fact is that the Blue Devils have won three straight games by 15 points and eight of their last nine. I can’t bet against form like that.
Rachael Kaplan: North Carolina 85-81
This is not the same game that it was a month ago. The two teams are neck-and-neck in nearly every stat: record, net rating, adjusted efficiency, NET ranking. Duke is hot right now, there is no doubt about that. It’s Roach’s senior night, McCain is in prime shooting form and the freshman forward duo of TJ Power and Stewart is finally finding its footing. Bacot proved at the first meeting that without Lively across from him, he will be nearly impossible to stop. When Filipowski got into foul trouble, Ryan Young stood no shot. I think Stewart will share some of that burden Saturday evening, and he has definitely come a long way since September, but I just don’t know if the youngster is ready to stop Bacot. No matter what, this rivalry is always high-stakes: It’s anyone’s game. But if I had to bet, I’d bet on the Tar Heels.
Mackenzie Sheehy: Duke 77-74
If you had asked me two weeks ago, I would have said the Tar Heels had this contest in the bag. Yet over their past few games, the Blue Devils have shown that they can dictate games and dominate opponents. Boasting both a big win against Virginia and a bounce-back victory against N.C. State, Duke seems to be peaking at just the right time. With the perfect mixture of defensive excellence and offensive chemistry, the Blue Devils will likely be able to edge out their rivals from down the road on the finest of margins. That’s not to say North Carolina will make it easy. Duke needs to prevent any one of the Tar Heels from gaining momentum in Cameron Indoor and having a big-time game like Bacot and Ingram did a month prior. If the Blue Devils can control the pace and continue to trend their offense in the right direction, benches will be burning on Abele Quad Saturday night.
Ranjan Jindal: North Carolina 75-71
I’ve been going back and forth on this one, because while the Blue Devils are hot and it's hard to win in Cameron Indoor, I think North Carolina generally matches up pretty well against Duke. Since the first matchup, however, the Blue Devils have really placed an emphasis on the defensive end and have done a great job guarding the three. The stat I’m watching will be offensive rebounding, because if the Tar Heels and Bacot can dominate the glass, it can lead to wide open 3-point looks and maybe a rough night for Duke. But with the emergence of Stewart, one of the things he does best is rebound, and I think that will have a huge impact on the game. North Carolina has not played its best basketball throughout the past month, but despite this, I think the experience of the Tar Heels could make the difference.
Dom Fenoglio: Duke 75-70
When these teams first met in Chapel Hill, one of the biggest reasons the Tar Heels dominated from start to finish was their ability to dictate the pace of play. Even though Duke shot a higher percentage from the field, North Carolina outpaced the Blue Devils in transition scoring. Therefore, my biggest key to the game is whether or not Duke can force the Tar Heels to play half-court offense. The Blue Devils are trending in the right direction defensively to do so, and obviously home-court advantage will help. If Duke can slow things down, I give them an edge in shot-making and 3-point shooting. A strong shooting night from any two of Proctor, Roach and McCain should be enough for the Blue Devils to secure a share of the ACC regular-season title.
Sophie Levenson: Duke 78-74
Duke is a better team than it was a month ago. The fundamentals are showing up strong, with solid shooting and smart passing and a defense that’s proving harder to crack with every game. Distributing that defensive power between Davis and Ingram won’t be easy, but this time around, Scheyer knows it’s what he has to do.
When it comes to the mental side of things, I just don’t see Roach letting North Carolina get the best of him again. Maybe I’m lugging out old baggage, but Roach was there when former head coach Mike Krzyzewski lost his last home game, and I doubt he wants the same for his own (probably) last home game. This team loves its captain, and they won’t let that happen to him, either.
Jonathan Levitan: Duke 72-68
It has been a near-perfect month for the Blue Devils, who are now 9-1 since their unsuccessful trip to Chapel Hill in February. Not much has changed for the Tar Heels, who then lost two of three before rounding back into form, but this feels like a very different Duke team than the one that struggled to keep pace in the Dean Dome.
That difference is, of course, in large part due to the absence of Caleb Foster. Scheyer’s decision to essentially give those minutes to Stewart and Power has paid early dividends, with the freshman forwards adding a certain youthful energy to the court and size to Duke’s defense. Alongside Mitchell, who might be Duke’s most improved player since the turn of the calendar, the duo could slow Bacot and Ingram down low; it might be just enough to get the Blue Devils a home win and a share of the conference title.
Micah Hurewitz: Duke 79-73
The Blue Devils may not be at full strength but they are playing with tremendous energy as of late and have gotten more out of their once-reserves in Stewart and Power. Depth combined with the fact the Blue Devils have seen the Tar Heel squad at their best, and even then Duke feels it had a lot to desire about its play in that game. Roach will be the talk of the day, not just because of the possibility it is his final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium, but because he has been the best leader for the Blue Devils in big games this year. He has proven to be a very reliable shooter and North Carolina will have to pick who to cover among Duke’s sharpshooting lineup. Davis will look to establish himself early against Proctor, while Mitchell will be crucial to initiate a strong rebounding game. The Blue Devils have the pieces to take care of the Tar Heels with the ACC regular-season title on the line. As always, it’ll be right from start to finish, but I’ll give the Blue Devils the edge.
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Jonathan Levitan is a Trinity senior and was previously sports editor of The Chronicle's 118th volume.
Micah Hurewitz is a Trinity senior and was previously a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 118th volume.
Rachael Kaplan is a Trinity junior and sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 119th volume.
Dom Fenoglio is a Trinity sophomore and an assistant Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 119th volume.
Ranjan Jindal is a Trinity sophomore and sports editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Sophie Levenson is a Trinity sophomore and a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Mackenzie Sheehy is a Trinity sophomore and Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 119th volume.
Andrew Long is a Trinity junior and sports editor of The Chronicle's 119th volume.