No. 2-seed Duke kicks off its postseason journey Thursday evening in Washington, D.C., against N.C. State in the ACC tournament quarterfinals. Before the rematch between these two Tobacco Road foes, The Chronicle’s beat writers are here to offer their predictions:
Andrew Long: Duke 81-71
The Blue Devils’ first half against the Wolfpack early last week was pretty subpar for their standard. Kyle Filipowski had two quick fouls and played just four minutes, Jared McCain couldn’t get anything going from three and Mark Mitchell struggled in the post as DJ Burns Jr. ran rampant. But the second half is where Duke turned it on, finding McCain for transition trey after transition trey, using a breakout game from Sean Stewart to supplement off days from Filipowski and Mitchell and employing Jeremy Roach and Tyrese Proctor’s elite stamina to see almost every possession en route to a 15-point win.
Normally, regular-season games between teams factor little into postseason matchups. But the recency and comprehensive nature of Duke’s win in Raleigh makes it a replicable formula for the Blue Devils: give Burns some space, don’t double-team, shut down the perimeter and dominate the offensive boards. If Duke can do that again in the nation’s capital, presumably with better play from Mitchell and Filipowski, I think the pure imbalance of firepower can carry the Blue Devils into the semifinals with relative ease.
Rachael Kaplan: Duke 77-68
Ten days ago, the Blue Devils went into PNC Arena, a place they typically struggle no matter the strength of the Wolfpack, and ultimately emerged with a solid win. No Duke player had a legacy showing (except maybe Stewart), but the overall talent and balanced effort was still enough to overcome Burns’ 27-point night. At a neutral site and with the Blue Devils coming off a heartbreaker, I can’t see N.C. State having a better game against Duke now than it did on its home turf with public focus already shifting to the Saturday showdown in Cameron Indoor Stadium against North Carolina. Filipowski and Roach are poised to lead this team just as they did last year in the conference tournament, and while they may not have been the most consistent producers lately, they know how to show up on this stage.
Mackenzie Sheehy: Duke 79-68
I feel like I say this every game, but this contest against N.C. State is crucial for the Blue Devils. It’s a win-or-go-home tournament game but also an opportunity to rinse the bad taste of North Carolina out of Duke’s mouth, especially with a non-zero chance of a rematch with the Tar Heels in the coming days. That being said, the Blue Devils have everything they need to execute a repeat performance of their night in Raleigh a week-and-a-half ago. The big question will surround the team’s ability to keep Burns from having another career night, but otherwise Duke can stick to its game plan. The Blue Devils also have four veterans from the ACC-tournament-winning squad last year in their starting lineup, so Duke should have no problem pulling off the victory.
Ranjan Jindal: Duke 75-66
Duke has a formula to defeat N.C. State, and I think the Blue Devils stick to it Thursday. By not doubling Burns and preventing the Wolfpack guards from connecting on triples, it limits Burns’ passing ability and does not let the game get out of reach. The stat I will be watching is the turnover battle, because N.C. State has the ability to turn teams over, but it only got five in the March 4 matchup. Duke did a good job making the Wolfpack play slower and converted on its own transition opportunities, which will be key. I think the experience and prowess of the Blue Devil guards is the difference, but it could be a close one in Washington.
Dom Fenoglio: Duke 81-65
The Blue Devils should be pleased that they are facing a N.C. State team they handily beat recently instead of a rapidly improving Syracuse team with more weapons. I do not think Duke will have much trouble taking care of the Wolfpack again, especially since Burns will now be playing his third game in as many days. The part of the game I will be watching is how the Blue Devils’ backcourt looks from behind the arc. The time to get hot is now, and this game could be a great confidence builder for Duke. As long as they take care of the ball and don’t overthink things, the Blue Devils should take care of business comfortably.
Sophie Levenson: Duke 85-74
If anything, this game is important for the Blue Devils as a warmup for the rest of the ACC tournament. Duke is still the team that wiped out N.C. State on the road not two weeks ago, giving it no reason to lose to the Wolfpack now. But getting their heads in the tournament game will be imperative for the Blue Devils, who have struggled this season under pressure (see: Tar Heels) and have yet to play in this D.C. arena. They need to get their feet wet and then they need to get them steady.
Where Duke did struggle in that last matchup against the Wolfpack was taking the advantage early. Until the last 10-or-so minutes of that game, N.C. State had a solid fighting chance against the Blue Devils. Playing its best as early as possible will be key for Duke in this tournament, especially if it comes down to a Tobacco Road rematch against North Carolina — Scheyer’s squad cannot afford to give up another 12-4 run in the first three minutes of any game. I don’t see them failing Thursday, though, so long as they can rectify that error from the first go around against N.C. State.
Jonathan Levitan: Duke 82-68
Not much has changed in the week-and-a-half since these teams last played, but the better team now has a significant rest advantage. Even after the Wolfpack looked great in the second half of their runaway win against Syracuse to reach the quarterfinal, I see no telltale sign that this is a better N.C. State team than we saw last Monday.
My eye will be trained on Duke’s approach to the Burns question, though. The senior big man had his way for a season-high 27 points in the first matchup and will no doubt be a focal point for Duke’s defense this time around. Either way, the Blue Devils win this one going away (again).
Micah Hurewitz: Duke 83-65
The Blue Devils won the first installment of this matchup handily, especially considering Duke won it 79-55 after the first three minutes. The Blue Devils perfectly countered the Wolfpack game plan, although Burns’ output turned some heads regarding Duke’s interior defense. Stewart and fellow freshman TJ Power were big in that one, while guard play will again be the key for the Blue Devils. The biggest advantage Duke has in Washington, D.C., is that N.C. State has played twice in the last two days and the Blue Devils have had some time to rest up and recoup from their loss against North Carolina. The Wolfpack bring in a decent defense but Duke will look to capitalize on their poor 3-point protection, and the Blue Devils have the opportunity to end their opponents’ season early.
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Jonathan Levitan is a Trinity senior and was previously sports editor of The Chronicle's 118th volume.
Micah Hurewitz is a Trinity senior and was previously a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 118th volume.
Rachael Kaplan is a Trinity junior and sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 119th volume.
Dom Fenoglio is a Trinity sophomore and an assistant Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 119th volume.
Ranjan Jindal is a Trinity sophomore and sports editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Sophie Levenson is a Trinity sophomore and a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Mackenzie Sheehy is a Trinity sophomore and Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 119th volume.
Andrew Long is a Trinity junior and sports editor of The Chronicle's 119th volume.