The 21st-ranked Blue Devils make a familiar trip up to New York for a battle with top-10 Baylor Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden for the final heavyweight clash of their nonconference slate. Ahead of the 7 p.m. tipoff, The Chronicle's beat writers are here with their predictions about whether Duke can emerge with a win:
Andrew Long: Baylor 78-74
Duke heads into its final clash with a nonconference goliath in a precarious position — both as a favorite and a team which has largely underwhelmed to this point. Its five-point loss to Arizona in November has aged relatively well since the Wildcats jumped to No. 1 and then dropped a tight battle with Purdue. Its win against Michigan State — who just unexpectedly thumped Baylor by 24 but sits at 5-5 — is impressive but perhaps not as marquee as thought before the season started, and its loss to an inconsistent Arkansas team was confusing. Since then, sophomore center Kyle Filipowski has found his scoring touch while guard Tyrese Proctor has been sidelined with an ankle injury. Put simply: it’s hard to assess how good the Blue Devils are right now.
I’m not quite convinced Duke figured itself out yet, despite all the talent it boasts. Filipowski will score in bunches as he customarily does and senior captain Jeremy Roach makes a habit of showing up in games like Wednesday’s, but my question is about how the rest of the lineup plays. Will Mark Mitchell replicate his electric form inside the World’s Most Famous Arena from a year ago? How will the freshmen — specifically Caleb Foster and Jared McCain — fare under the brightest lights of America’s biggest city? How will the Bears, a team underestimated by some but undoubtedly supremely talented, perform? I think the Blue Devils can keep it close and play relatively well, but head coach Scott Drew’s group just seems to have a bit more mojo at the moment. That’s hard for me to look away from, and I like Waco, Texas, outfit to take a thrilling clash by a smidge.
Rachael Kaplan: Baylor 75-72
This is now a rebound game for Baylor, and that doesn’t bode well for Duke. The Bears have only been outrebounded twice this season, in their 95-91 win against Florida (a game also played in New York), and in the loss to Michigan State. Coupled with the Spartans shooting out of their minds, the poor performance seems to be more of an outlier than an indicator of future struggle. Meanwhile, the 7-3 Blue Devils have had their fair share of slow stretches, and if they are again without primary facilitator Proctor, someone else will need to step up to keep the sometimes stagnant offense moving. Filipowski did it last game against Hofstra, but against a top-10 team he alone won’t be enough.
Mackenzie Sheehy: Baylor 80-72
It’s no secret that Duke has struggled to step up in the big moments this year. Whether it be against quality opponents like Arizona and Arkansas or a seemingly easy foe in Georgia Tech, the Blue Devils have yet to truly define themselves as a team worth fearing. Even in its win against Michigan State, Duke took its time to show up and get the job done. Coupled with a Baylor squad that will be looking to rebound from its defeat at the hands of the Spartans, the Blue Devils have a tall task in front of them. The Bears will be on a revenge tour, seeking to put a top-25 opponent in its place after their manhandling in Detroit, using elite 3-point shooting that will test Duke’s defensive abilities. Especially if head coach Jon Scheyer’s squad is without Proctor, the Blue Devils will likely come back to Durham with their fourth loss of the season.
Ranjan Jindal: Duke 82-78
This is a much different Baylor team from years past, as the Bears’ calling card for the past few years — elite guard play and defensive intensity — is now replaced with an average defense but tremendous 3-point shooting ability. This team can flat-out score, and that makes this a tough matchup. However, Michigan State demonstrated how to beat Baylor, which is to turn the relatively young Bears over. Duke is pretty good at forcing turnovers and even better at capitalizing on opposing mistakes. Additionally, one thing that the Blue Devils have demonstrated during their past two wins is immensely improved shooting from deep, and I think the past two weeks of practice time have been extremely beneficial. As a result, if Proctor plays, I think Duke sneaks past Baylor, and the game is a toss-up if he doesn’t.
Dom Fenoglio: Duke 75-71
Duke is in desperate need of a strong nonconference win before it ramps up with conference play in the new year. After the Blue Devils struggled early on, they seemed to get back into step in two recent home victories. However, Baylor is not Hofstra or Charlotte. The Bears are also in need of a morale boost after a tough loss to Michigan State, and they have the talent to overwhelm Duke if it does not bring its A-game. That being said, I think the Blue Devils are hungrier to prove themselves on a national stage, and will cap off their extremely difficult non-conference gauntlet with a win.
Sophie Levenson: Duke 81-76
Call me superstitious, but Madison Square Garden likes Duke. The Blue Devils have an all-time 40-18 record in the New York City arena. It’s also where former head coach Mike Krzyzewski became the winningest coach in college basketball history. Another fun fact: The only other time Duke has played Baylor was in 2010, in the NCAA tournament that the Blue Devils would go on to win and Scheyer would drop 20 points. No, this squad has not performed well against tough teams this year, and yes, I did recently publish a column saying Duke cannot really contend with physical teams like the ones outside of the ACC. But those Arizona and Arkansas games were probably not lost in vain; I doubt that Georgia Tech loss was, either. All 15 Blue Devil players will undoubtedly show up on Wednesday night with hefty chips on their shoulders should will be well-equipped with the lessons learned from a rocky start to the season. That, and the favorite Blue Devil arena (outside of Cameron Indoor), might just be enough for a long-awaited big-time victory.
Jonathan Levitan: Duke 70-67
It’s hard to say, even after almost a full game in the loss at Georgia Tech and the following home wins against Charlotte and Hofstra, what Duke is without Proctor. Baylor, even after its puzzling loss to the Spartans last time out, has exceeded its preseason expectations, and a great deal of that early success can be attributed to excellent depth and bench play. Freshman guard Ja’Kobe Walter has been a revelation, but the Bears are where they are because they have six players scoring in double digits and the luxury of 28.4 bench points per night.
Where does that leave the Blue Devils, who presumably will go up against this deep Baylor team without Proctor? My bet is that Roach, who matched a career-high in his last trip to the Mecca, shines alongside Mitchell in a repeat of last December’s defensive showing against Iowa. Expect Duke to eke this one out on a familiar court.
Micah Hurewitz: Baylor 81-71
Well, only a handful of Baylor’s games thus far have been remotely close, including its blowout loss against Michigan State — and that could be a problem. The Bears do a good job of sharing the ball and distributing the scoring with six players averaging more than 10 points per game, with a plethora of capable 3-point shooters able to pile on points on any given night. Duke, on the other hand, is coming off back-to-back long breaks (the Blue Devils have only played two games in the last 17 days) and has looked to get more consistency from its own guards McCain (17 points per game in last two games) and Foster in the absence of Proctor. Filipowski looks like he might be back at the top of his game, as is Roach (19.4 points on 61.1% from 3-point range with a 9.5 assist-to-turnover ratio over his last five outings), but the Bears may have too many ways to score for Duke to handle. An early first-half deficit could spell trouble, although the Blue Devils are known to perform well at Madison Square Garden (winning six straight) in front of what is sure to be a friendly crowd Wednesday night. Despite its loss to the Spartans, Baylor is one of the best in the nation and I think they will prove that.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.
Jonathan Levitan is a Trinity senior and was previously sports editor of The Chronicle's 118th volume.
Micah Hurewitz is a Trinity senior and was previously a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 118th volume.
Rachael Kaplan is a Trinity junior and sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 119th volume.
Dom Fenoglio is a Trinity sophomore and an assistant Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 119th volume.
Ranjan Jindal is a Trinity sophomore and sports editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Sophie Levenson is a Trinity sophomore and a sports managing editor of The Chronicle's 120th volume.
Mackenzie Sheehy is a Trinity sophomore and Blue Zone editor of The Chronicle's 119th volume.
Andrew Long is a Trinity junior and sports editor of The Chronicle's 119th volume.