After an agonizing, last-minute loss to Notre Dame Sept. 30, No. 17 Duke comes out of its bye week looking to right the ship. The Blue Devils kick off their remaining conference-only slate with a matchup against N.C. State this Saturday.
Duke opens as a slight favorite against a competitive Wolfpack squad for this down-the-road contest. Here are five things to know before the 8:00 p.m. kickoff:
Man under center
At his weekly press conference Monday, head coach Mike Elko listed junior quarterback Riley Leonard (ankle) as “day-to-day,” with optimistic notes about his recovery from a high ankle sprain suffered in the final play against the Fighting Irish. Should Leonard miss Saturday’s contest against N.C. State, redshirt freshman Henry Belin IV will step into the signal-caller role.
In three career games played, Belin has completed 13-of-14 passing attempts for 161 yards and a touchdown. Against Lafayette Sept. 9, Belin combined for two scores and averaged a sublime 14.8 yards per attempt. Elko complemented his “tremendous arm talent” while noting the “nerves around” his potential first career start. No matter who starts Saturday, Elko’s optimism around his quarterback room is high and should carry into this contest.
The Waters show
Duke’s offense relies on its running game, and core to that is graduate back Jordan Waters. Across five games, the Fairmont, N.C., native leads Duke in scrimmage yards with 379, and has compiled eight rushing touchdowns — as many as he had in 13 games last season. Additionally, Waters has averaged an outstanding 5.8 yards per carry behind a stout offensive line.
His success will prove all the more important against an N.C. State team only letting up three yards per carry on the season. If Leonard is out or limited with his legs, Waters and fellow back Jaquez Moore will likely be asked to shoulder more of the offensive load. Look for Duke to test this matchup, especially with star left tackle Graham Barton set to return.
Passing defense
Duke not only has arguably the best defense in the ACC, but one of the very best in Division I. Through five games, the unit has averaged 11.2 points allowed per game and has allowed just three scores through the air.
On the flip side, N.C. State has arguably the weakest passing offense in the league, with a league-high nine interceptions thrown and a subpar 56% completion rate. This inconsistency flared up Oct. 7 against Marshall, where Wolfpack quarterback M.J. Morris threw for 265 yards and four scores, but posted a 53.1% completion rate and was picked off three times. With a strong pass rush and a steady secondary, Duke will look to exploit this matchup on defense Saturday.
Eyes on Concepcion
If any player could break Duke’s stout pass protection Saturday, it would be Wolfpack wideout Kevin Concepcion, who has racked up 31 catches for 347 yards and four scores — all team highs by far.
“He’s electric in the slot … he does a really good job of creating separation,” Elko said. “We’ve got to make sure we pay enough attention to him that he’s not able to take advantage of us.” With the Charlotte native posing one of the biggest challenges to Duke’s defense thus far in the season, look for the entire back seven to have eyes on Concepcion throughout the contest.
Buck the trend
Duke is 41-37-5 all-time against the Wolfpack. However, N.C. State has won 15 of its last 18 contests against the Blue Devils, the most recent of which was a 31-20 win in 2020. With the Wolfpack playing in Durham for the first time in 10 years, Elko noted the “urgency … to the game,” as well as that some of the older Blue Devils “won’t ever play [N.C. State] again.” With a heightened sense of importance going into Saturday, Duke will look to best its Tobacco Road foe for the first time since 2013 and right the ship following the Notre Dame loss.
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