The Blue Devils are likely a win away from qualifying for their fifth straight bowl appearance, with their first of two chances to get it coming Saturday at Pittsburgh at 3 p.m. But it will not be easy against a Panther team coming off a victory against a national title contender in Clemson last weekend. Here are three keys to Saturday's matchup:
Stop the Run
James Conner has returned to the backfield for Pittsburgh after missing most of last season while he recovered from Hodgkin's Lymphoma, and he is unquestionably the leader of the Panthers' offense. Conner averages 84.4 rushing yards per game to lead a team that runs for more than 210 yards per contest. Saturday, Duke will need to do something it failed to do when the teams met in 2014—contain James Conner. During that game in Pittsburgh, Conner gained a career-high 263 yards on the ground and ran for three touchdowns, though the Blue Devils still won a 51-48 double-overtime thriller.
Duke stopped the run fairly well last Thursday against North Carolina and will need the strong play from its front seven to continue Saturday. The Blue Devils held the Tar Heels to just 106 yards on the ground after allowing their previous three opponents to rush for more than 200 yards. If Duke can hold Conner and the Pittsburgh backfield to fewer than 200 yards, the Blue Devils could win back-to-back games for the first time all season.
Flip the field
One of the keys for the Blue Devils' success this season has been their ability to start drives with strong field position. Shaun Wilson has done a good job at kick returner replacing DeVon Edwards, who is out for the season with a knee injury. Wilson has averaged 26.8 yards per return and has often set Duke up in position to move the ball downfield.
On the other side of the ball, Duke has had trouble pinning its opponents inside the 15-yard line. Walk-on punter Danny Stirt has struggled since he took over for the injured Austin Parker. Stirt averaged just 32.3 yards per punt against North Carolina, and his performance has forced coach head coach David Cutcliffe to explore other options, including using quarterbacks Daniel Jones and Parker Boehme to punt. The Tar Heels started their possessions at their own 30-yard line or better six times, and the ball was spotted at or across midfield on two occasions. Although Duke’s defense stepped up in these situations last week, field position will continue to be a factor against Pittsburgh Saturday.
Win the turnover battle
One area in which the Blue Devils struggled early this season was in their susceptibility to turnovers, but Duke’s win against North Carolina marked just the third game this year that the Blue Devils had no giveaways. A major reason for this improvement is that quarterback Daniel Jones has been much more careful with his passing in the last five games. Jones threw eight interceptions in the first five games, but has been picked off just once in his last five performances.
In addition to Jones’ early struggles, Duke has had turnover troubles in the backfield as well. The Blue Devils have fumbled the ball 16 times, losing possession on 12 of these miscues. On the other hand, Pittsburgh has just 11 turnovers all season. In order for the Blue Devils to make the most of their opportunities Saturday, they will have to control the clock and take care of the ball on the road.
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Digital Strategy Director for Vol. 115, Michael was previously Sports Editor for Vol. 114 and Assistant Blue Zone Editor for Vol. 113. Michael is a senior majoring in Statistical Science and is interested in data analytics and using data to make insights.