Data Digging: Midterms for the Duke offense

Although the technical midway point comes after this Saturday’s Georgia Tech contest, with Duke students in the thick of midterms, now seems to be the perfect time to see where the Blue Devils stand so far this season.

After busting out of the gates with a convincing 4-0 record, Duke took its talents to South Beach and came home with its first loss of the season and a lot of questions to answer. Many would look to last season’s start for comfort, as the team dropped a pair of games to Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh before reeling off eight straight wins en route to a Coastal Division crown. After looking through the first five games of both seasons, the Blue Devils, though improved, certainly still have some areas to tighten up before finals come around.

In 2013, the Blue Devils faced N.C. Central, Memphis, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh and Troy in their first five games and went 3-2, even after losing starting quarterback Anthony Boone to a broken collarbone in the first half against the Tigers. This year, the slate has consisted of Elon, Troy, Kansas, Tulane and Miami and Duke is 4-1 with a healthy Boone under center.

But this year’s early schedule—which, to be fair, is set years in advance—is unquestionably softer than that of 2013. Of the 2014 opponents, only two are in a Power Five conference, and Duke's opponents sport a combined record of 7-19, compared to last year’s foes' 12-13 mark at the same point.

The final scores seem to indicate that the Blue Devils are right on track, as they are averaging 36.8 points per game, up four points from last year’s 32.8. Even when looking at just Duke’s first five contests, this year’s squad has still upped the ante when compared to last year’s mark of 36.0 points.

But down the stretch, football is more about how you can score against quality conference opponents—like Miami—than it is about how many points you can hang on Elon and Kansas. The Hurricanes are the only squad the Blue Devils have played that is on pace to finish .500 and they dominated Duke in a 22-10 victory Sept. 27.

The letdown in Miami Gardens was due to an offensive performance that was one of the worst the Blue Devils have had in the past two years, as they picked up only 264 yards, committed three turnovers and converted just two of its 16 third down chances.

Although it’s unfair to say any one factor will decide a game, third down efficiency is an area Duke will have to correct if it hopes to bounce back from its first loss of the season. Through five games last year, the Blue Devils converted 44.1 percent of their third downs. It wasn’t a spectacular number and they would finish the year at 40 percent. This year, however, Duke is only converting 35.6 percent of its third down attempts, ranking 102nd in the FBS.

Part of this can be attributed to the loss of All-ACC tight end Braxton Deaver, but with the emergence of Issac Blakeney and Max McCaffrey as dependable options, the dip seems unwarranted. Even with that duo and the always-dangerous Jamison Crowder split wide, the Blue Devils’ passing game has been another facet of the game to take a hit this year. Their completion percentage through five contests has dropped 9.7 percent—to 57.1 from 66.8 last year—and Duke is averaging only 220.4 yards per game through the air, down from 248.1. And those 2013 passing numbers come from three-and-a-half games in which backup Brandon Connette was taking the snaps.

Even with the setbacks in the passing game, one has to believe between the guidance of quarterback guru and head coach David Cutcliffe and first-year offensive coordinator Scottie Montgomery, things will improve even as the competition gets tougher in the thick of Coastal Division play.

If there is one area of marked improvement that defies all preseason predictions, it is Duke's success running the ball. Shaun Wilson's breakout game against Kansas the and consistent play of veterans Shaquille Powell and Josh Snead have allowed the Blue Devils to bowl through opponents for 225.8 yards per game thus far, good enough to rank as the 25th-best ground attack in the nation. That’s up from the 193.0 yards per game they posted through the first five games last year and the season average of 178.0 yards per game. As Duke showed time after time last year, it was at its best when it varied its play-calling and kept the opposition guessing. That's what led to signature wins against Miami and North Carolina and is what will lead the Blue Devils to success again this year.

With Georgia Tech on the slate for Saturday at 12:30 p.m., one has to believe that a win against the Yellow Jackets—a team Cutcliffe has yet to conquer in his time at Duke—would provide the Blue Devils with the needed momentum to ace this midterm and put them back in contention to return to the top in the Coastal.