New-look ACC will give Duke women's basketball a difficult path to a Final Four

Duke has gotten close to the Final Four but failed to make it each of the past four seasons—this is why it will be five.

First, the Blue Devils have a brutal schedule—Duke will face seven teams ranked in the preseason AP Poll’s top 12 and will play No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 12 North Carolina twice in conference play and likely play either the Tar Heels or the Irish a third time or No. 8 Maryland a second time in the ACC tournament, bringing the total to at least 10 difficult games on the schedule, not counting any potential upset bids by teams not ranked in the top 15.

Although almost every top team has a difficult nonconference schedule, Duke’s demanding ACC schedule could prevent the team from reaching its goal. The Blue Devils might not be able to get a strong No. 1 seed or a favorable location for their NCAA Regional if they falter in conference play and the other top teams in the country dominate their respective conferences.

No. 1 Connecticut will almost certainly roll through the AAC if they can last through two matchups with No. 5 Louisville. No. 4 Tennessee could easily maintain an impressive SEC record if they best No. 7 Kentucky, and No. 3 Stanford will likely control the Pac-12 if it can hold up against upstart No. 9 California. Thus, Duke could very conceivably have another difficult road to the Final Four if they are once again in a region with a difficult location and another top-five team.

Secondly, although two-time All-American Chelsea Gray will likely be back close to 100 percent by the time ACC play rolls around, it is possible that Gray’s return to full strength could mean that her backcourt-mate Alexis Jones will be less explosive without the ball in her hands as much. Jones is one of the most dangerous players in the country in transition but will have to adjust to playing off Gray’s facilitating, and vice versa—this adjustment could render both players less effective if they cannot figure out how to be just as efficient playing off the ball.

This in turn could make it difficult for Duke to improve its assist-to-turnover ratio, a benchmark statistic for championship teams. Similarly, the ability or inability of the duo to mesh on the court this season could limit Duke’s ability to run half court sets involving ball reversals and post entry passes against tough defensive units if both Gray and Jones are always in attack mode. Unless Jones and Gray figure out how to take advantage of their unique skills together, Duke will have to wait yet another year to make it to the Final Four.

The Blue Devils return all five starters and 93.7 percent of the team’s scoring. They also return a group that has struggled to consistently rebound and slow down high-octane offenses at times. Center Elizabeth Williams compensates for many of Duke’s defensive blunders with her shot blocking and rebounding ability, but against elite competition in tight games, the inability of the Blue Devils to shut down dribble penetration early and communicate to secure box-outs and spot 3-point shooters could cost the team. The team’s offensive firepower could easily prove futile if Duke does not show more grittiness on defense, especially on the perimeter.

Duke clearly has one of the most talented teams in the country, but the Blue Devils could easily miss out on the Final Four again because of a formidable conference schedule, offensive inefficiencies caused by playing two guards who both command the ball and a lack of defensive stability on the perimeter.