Coming off of its first bowl game appearance in 18 years, Duke is a team that many will pull for in the upcoming season. And although they provide an excellent Cinderella story, Duke’s team this year will not have the same magic as last year’s team and will ultimately fall short of returning to a bowl game.
As far as the Blue Devils’ schedule is concerned, there are three areas under which a game can fall—winnable, maybe and not a chance.
When it comes down to it, there are four games that one can look at the schedule and say are truly winnable games for Duke. N.C. Central, Memphis, Virginia and Troy are all teams the Blue Devils should be able to hold their own against and come away with a victory.
Beyond that lie two gray-area matchups that would take a lot of impressive performances from Blue Devils in order to walk away with the win, but certainly classify as “maybe” games. These teams are Navy and Wake Forest. Navy relies on an impressive ground attack, but because the Midshipmen only threw for 11 touchdowns all of last season, they do not pose much of a threat to the Duke secondary. Wake Forest is a team that many forgot actually beat North Carolina in the second week of the season last year. Not to mention they return senior Tanner Price, who finished last season with a 108.7 quarterback rating and will certainly be looking to avenge last year’s home loss to the Blue Devils.
The rest of the games are against teams that pose problems for Duke and would require a lot of luck in order for Duke to win.
The team on the not-a-chance list that a lot of Duke fans will contend is a maybe game, if not a winnable game, is against North Carolina.
The Tar Heels roster is made to score, something the Blue Devils’ offense simply will not be able to keep up with again. North Carolina put up 40.6 points per game last year, ranking eighth in the FBS, and Duke scored 31.5. And while the Tar Heels lost Giovani Bernard, they replace him with A.J. Blue and Romar Morris, who combined for more than 800 yards rushing last season.
Offensively, it is easy to point to the loss of quarterback Sean Renfree and receiver Conner Vernon as the biggest reasons the Blue Devils will miss out on the postseason play.
With redshirt junior quarterback Anthony Boone, it is not that he lacks the skill set to lead the team. It is the fact that he does not have the experience or proven consistency to contend that he has the ability to replace Renfree in the sense of pure production.
Although he was impressive in his single start last season against Virginia, one game is simply too miniscule a sample size to say that he will produce that kind of performance every contest. Boone has yet to face the three- or four-game losing streak that normally comes with a Duke season and try to manage a team’s disappointment and frustration.
Duke also lacks a solid number-two receiver, a role which junior Jamison Crowder played last year in backing up Vernon. To make up for the departure of the ACC’s all-time receptions leader, Crowder will now have to take up the role of being the team’s top offensive weapon, something he proved he is capable of handling with his play last year. But behind Crowder, there is a substantial drop-off in terms of production and experience. The Blue Devils even moved receiver-turned-safety-turned-receiver-again Brandon Braxton back to offense and have him listed at the top of the depth chart with sophomore Max McCaffrey.
Defensively, the Blue Devils will face the same problem they did last year with an unproven secondary. Ross Cockrell is the only returning full-time starter and will play alongside redshirt-senior Garett Patterson, redshirt freshman DeVon Edwards and freshmen Breon Borders and Bryon Fields. This inexperience is something that will hurt Duke down the stretch, just as it did last year in their bowl game. In a pass-heavy league, Duke cannot afford to have a lack of dependable veterans in its most vital line of defense.
With an offense and defense that is unproven in the most important areas along with another tough five-game stretch at the end of the season, there are not enough opportunities present for the Blue Devils to make a run at another bowl berth. Maybe next year, they will have a chance, once the starters get a year of ACC football under their belt, but for now the drought of winning a bowl game will continue.
Read Danny Nolan's reasons why Duke will return to a bowl game in 2013
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