Normally, picking Duke to win a basketball game is not a tall task—even if it is in Chapel Hill. But after the debacle that was the Blue Devils’ loss to Miami in Cameron Sunday, that job just became exponentially harder.
How could I possibly argue that a Duke team that looked uninspired, overmatched and apathetic against an average Hurricanes team could beat its archrival on the road? If the Plumlees and Ryan Kelly let Reggie Johnson go for 27 points and 12 rebounds, how could they stop Tyler Zeller and John Henson? If Miami’s guards could get to the rim almost at will, won’t North Carolina’s guards be able to do the same?
But the Blue Devils will beat the Tar Heels Wednesday, for one simple reason—they match up with their rivals better than with Miami or any other team that’s given them trouble this season.
Make no mistake—North Carolina is the most talented team Duke has faced this year. But the Blue Devils have players who can take away what the Tar Heels like to do offensively.
Zeller and Henson make up one of the best frontcourts in the country, but their games are ideally suited for the defensive style of the Plumlees and Kelly. Whereas Jackson dominated the Duke bigs by using his immense size to back them down, Zeller and Henson play with more finesse. The length of Mason Plumlee can take away Henson’s favorite turn-around jumper, and Miles Plumlee will be able to make Zeller uncomfortable with physical defense.
And neither Tar Heel has the frame to bully their way to offensive boards like Johnson did.
But what of Duke’s true Achilles heel—perimeter defense? After Dexter Strickland went down with a torn ACL, the Tar Heels lost their most explosive perimeter athlete. And it’s athleticism and speed that have given the Blue Devil guards the most trouble defensively this season.
Kendall Marshall may be the best passer in the country, but athletically he’s more Greg Paulus than Raymond Felton. Strickland’s replacement, Reggie Bullock, relies more on his size to get his shot rather than on drives to the hoop. And for all of Harrison Barnes’ talent, he still is not an elite athlete.
If the Tar Heels can’t get to the rim, Zeller and Henson won’t get the easy points down low that have plagued the Blue Devils of late. Meanwhile, Bullock and Barnes, who rely heavily on the 3-point shot, won’t get as many open looks if the Plumlees can exploit their defensive matchups in the post.
As for Duke’s offense, this North Carolina team is anything but an elite defensive squad—allowing 81 points at home to Georgia Tech certainly proves that. The Blue Devils will be able to get their points as long as their shots are falling.
Let’s also not forget that the Tar Heels have not been playing stellar basketball as of late—they needed a late run to avoid an upset against Maryland in their last contest and were challenged by an undermanned Wake Forest team last week. Barnes has not emerged as the leader many expected him to be in his sophomore year—and he’s battling a nagging ankle injury—while the loss of Strickland hurts North Carolina more than anyone will admit.
But perhaps most importantly, one has to think Mike Krzyzewski will not let another heartbreaking defeat derail his team. After the Blue Devils lost to Florida State, they played one of their best games of the year in a dominating victory their next time out. That win just happened to come on the road against one of Duke’s biggest rivals, the Terrapins.
And after the Miami loss, the Blue Devils’ season is arguably on the line in Chapel Hill Wednesday night. If Duke plays with the effort and intensity that this rivalry merits, the favorable matchups should give them a victory.
Especially considering a victory Wednesday may be the only thing that can get the taste of Sunday’s loss out of the Blue Devils’ mouths.
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