Recent history, deep field work against one-seeds

While the number one seeds this season may pack a powerful punch, they far from guarantee a knockout blow.

Picking either Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Kansas or Duke means taking a team that has not had incredible success as a top seed in the past.

Pittsburgh failed to make it to the Final Four in its only appearance as a one-seed in 2009. Ohio State has held the honor three times, yet failed to win on each occasion. Ten times Kansas has been a one-seed, yet they only have one title—in 2008—to show for it. And Duke, despite achieving the rank a record twelve times, has only hung a Cameron banner a relatively small three times on such occasions.

But, of course, that’s the past. What about 2011?

Making it through the field will be far from an easy feat for any of the aforementioned squads. The Panthers have struggled this season to contain teams with solid perimeter shooting. The Buckeyes rely too much on Jared Sullinger to drive their team’s hopes. The Jayhawks have crumbled twice this season under the high pressure of rivalry games, an environment that best parallels the NCAA Tournament. And for the Blue Devils, inconsistent post play and the questionable status of Kyrie Irving may ultimately be their undoing.

Then there is the competition. Notre Dame, North Carolina, Brigham Young, Syracuse, Connecticut and Louisville all pose serious threats to the title. Ben Hansbrough and the Fighting Irish play one of the most unique styles of basketball, shortening the game by running down the shot clock. Harrison Barnes and the Tar Heels come in with great momentum, having played their best basketball during the second half of the season. Player of the Year candidate Jimmer Fredette and the Cougars are hungry to prove they can succeed without star forward Brandon Davies. And the Orange, Huskies and Cardinals are all battle-tested from a high-quality Big East conference, making the transition to the national stage easier.

The one seeds also have some difficult roads to navigate if they are to even make the Final Four. Ohio State—which has arguably the toughest region—will need to get by a challenging Kentucky squad just to make the Elite Eight. If things play out, Pittsburgh could face a rowdy St. John’s team that defeated the Panthers just under a month ago. Duke could have a Sweet 16 matchup with Texas, a squad that was considered a potential one-seed at one point this season. And while Kansas has a relatively easy path to Houston, the threats of Louisville, Purdue and Notre Dame all loom large in the Southwest Region.

Although the one seeds may come into the NCAA Tournament as top dogs, ultimately there will be a problem in Houston—if the one seeds can even make it that far.