Fool Me Once, Not Twice

In all of Duke’s losses this season, the team has shot poorly from the field. Playing on the road, against the rival Tar Heels, in a game that decided the ACC regular season champion, the Blue Devils once again showed inconsistency in their shots, a serious liability considering that shooting well is the foundation for the teams’ success.

Duke struggled for the entire 40 minutes, ending the game with one field goal made in over 10 minutes of play. Over the course of the game, only five players scored for the Blue Devils, including a 2-point performance by Ryan Kelly, a 7-point performance by Miles Plumlee, and an 8-point performance by Kyle Singler. Duke shot 35 percent from the field and 22 percent from three-point range, numbers that fall well below the season averages.

The field goal percentages were bad, but the shots taken were not ill advised; in fact, most of the three pointers taken were open looks for the shooters. The problem may not be the number of shots from behind the arc, but rather the spot of the attempt. As I wrote about a month ago, Duke has noticeably better shooting nights when they shoot from the left side of the court more often. Against North Carolina, it became increasingly obvious that, while the Blue Devils thrive on that particular side, the right side is most certainly not the strong side.

When breaking down the shot selection, I split the floor into three separate areas: the left side, the center, and the right side. The center includes all shots taken within the boundaries of the painted area, while the left and right sides include everything outside of this section. The overall shot distribution was fairly equal, with 40 percent of the shots taken from the right side, 32 percent from the center, and 29 percent from the left side. The field goal percentages, however, were all over the place, shooting 24 percent from the right, 35 percent from the left side, and 50 percent from the center.

A large part of the problem was that even after minimal success from the right side, the same shots were taken again and again. Ryan Kelly, a solid three-point shooter, did not have a great night in Chapel Hill. Six out of Kelly’s seven field goal attempts came on the right side, and all but one of these shots were taken from the corner. Kelly missed all five three-point attempts from that spot, most of which were uncontested. It’s not hard to see that the statistical analysis of his game was not pretty, but he wasn’t the only one shooting poorly. Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith, who once again played like a potential National Player of the Year, shot a combined 2-for-13 from the right side, 33 percent worse than how the dynamic duo shot from the center and left side.

This was a tough game to say the least, but also a much needed eye-opener for Duke. Smart shot selection will be key with tournament season officially starting this week and we can only hope that the Blue Devils won’t make the same poor choices shooting again. As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, but fool me twice, shame on me.