With just three days until Selection Sunday, its time for the so-called "Bracketologists" to make their living. Conference tournament action, though, always seems to throw a wrench into their predictions, and the action today has been no exception.
Already today No. 3 Pittsburgh fell to No. 21 Connecticut in the Big East tournament, showing once again how inane the "double-bye" system in that tournament is, and No. 2 Kansas barely escaped an upset bid from Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Tournament. Chaos is already beginning to reign and Duke has yet to even play a game in the ACC Tournament, which begs the question—what does all this mean for the Blue Devils?
Much like last season, Duke's goal this week is to secure a No. 1 seed, something that just a couple months ago seemed assured for the Blue Devils but now is anything but. ESPN's Joe Lunardi currently has Duke as the last No. 1 seed, while SI.com's Andy Glockner has Duke as a No. 2 seed in Kansas' region.
With Kansas' win today and Ohio State's dominance this year, those two teams seem to have secured a No. 1 seed, and the consensus is that Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Duke, and perhaps BYU or San Diego State are battling for the final two No. 1 seeds. Both Glockner and Lunardi have Pittsburgh as a No. 1, while Glockner has Notre Dame as his final No. 1 seed.
Pittsburgh's loss is their fifth of the season, and Notre Dame already has five. Duke, meanwhile, has only four losses this season. The reason that both Pittsburgh and No. 4 Notre Dame are ranked above the No. 5 Blue Devils, though, is the Big East, which has been the darling of the media this season and should have more than 10 teams in the NCAA Tournament.
Still, though, if last year is any indication the selection committee looks very heavily at conference tournament. Duke's ACC Championship arguably secured their No. 1 seed on the way to last year's run to the national title, and on CBS' selection show the head of the selection committee stated that the Blue Devils' ACC Championship, combined with Syracuse's struggles in the Big East Tournament, led the committee to choose Duke as the "third" No. 1 seed. Interestingly enough, that not only gave the Blue Devils geographical benefits, but also forced Syracuse to play Butler in the Sweet 16. We all know how that turned out.
So the question remains, what must Duke do to claim a No. 1 seed? If Notre Dame falls to a hot Cincinnati team at 7:00 tonight, Duke's No. 1 seed should be all but assured given that San Diego State and BYU have largely fallen out of that conversation. Even if Notre Dame does have a successful Big East run (which I consider advancing to the championship game, if not winning it after Pittsburgh's loss), with Pittsburgh's loss it would be tough for the selection committee to deny the Blue Devils a No. 1 seed if they can claim the ACC title, especially if that championship comes with a neutral court victory over rival North Carolina in the championship game.
Indeed, it would be tough for the committee to justify giving two five loss Big East teams a No. 1 seed over a four loss ACC Champion, if Duke can indeed make that run.
While Duke's seeding is still very much up in the air, the team is certainly in a better position after Pittsburgh's upset loss than it was at the beginning of the day. And make no mistake, a No. 1 seed does matter—in Lunardi's bracket the Blue Devils would avoid facing any Top 10 team until the Elite Eight, where they might be matched up with a Brandon Davies-less BYU squad. In Glockner's bracket, though, Duke could face San Diego State in the Sweet 16 and Kansas, arguably the team that is the worst match-up for the Blue Devils (thanks to the Morris twins), in the Elite 8.
Stay tuned to the blog for more "Bracketology" updates throughout the weekend as we keep an eye on Duke's hunt for a No. 1 seed.
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