Easy there, Andy—you have to walk before you run

Everyone knows the saying “Rome wasn’t built in a day.” Well, neither were the football programs of recently bowl-competitive teams like Stanford, Northwestern or Wake Forest. Those optimists predicting Duke to similarly break out this year and make noise on the national scene may want to think twice before placing any bets. Though bowl games are within sight, the Blue Devils have to prove they can avoid a let-down season before fans get their hopes up.

There’s no question that Duke football is on the rise and that head coach David Cutcliffe’s recent decision to stay in Durham can give pigskin fans starved of success for more than a decade the right to anticipate big things from the Blue Devils. It’s important, however, to not have unrealistic expectations for a Duke team that is just three years removed from a one-win season.

A 45-34 loss to Wake Forest last November marked the end of a storied career for former Duke quarterback Thaddeus Lewis, and simultaneously, the beginning of the Sean Renfree era. Renfree, a Cutcliffe recruit with a few touchdowns under his belt already, has a big arm—and even bigger shoes to fill.

With a 10,000-yard career passer gone, Renfree is tasked with replacing the prolific production of his predecessor Lewis, who averaged over 277 yards per game in 2009. While top targets Donovan Varner and Conner Vernon return, even the most ardent Blue Devil fans will be hard-pressed to expect Renfree to lead the ACC in passing as Lewis did a year ago.

In fact, Renfree is not just tasked with guiding Duke through the air, but also compensating for a rushing attack that was simply nonexistent in 2009. Though Duke was 18th nationally in passing yardage a year ago, the Blue Devils ranked dead last in the FBS in rushing with 63.5 yards per game. Sophomore Desmond Scott has yet to show his effectiveness against ACC-caliber defenses. If he and his copatriots don’t get better, play action will be useless and defenses will be able to zero in on the redshirt sophomore quarterback.

If that’s not enough to get you worried, the Blue Devils will once again face a tough slate of opponents, and any slip-ups early in the season could prove fatal in the long run. In total, Duke plays five teams of the AP’s preseason top 25, and another two that received votes. That includes a visit from reigning national champion Alabama and trips to face No. 10 Virginia Tech and No. 16 Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Maryland.

Both the talent and the desire are in place for the Blue Devils to become bowl eligible, and there’s no questioning the ability of Cutcliffe to get the most out of his players. But you have to learn to walk before you can run, and right now the reborn Duke football program is still in its infancy.