There are 64 teams in the NCAA tournament. Out of those squads, only four can lay claim to a No. 1 seed. So, what are the chances of any of the other 60 teams taking home the title?
60 out of 64, right?
Probably not—Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky and Duke were given top seeds for a reason.
However, don’t let this mislead you—this year’s tournament field has the potential for steep competition, upsets and everybody’s favorite—Cinderella stories.
Indeed, you can bet this year’s NCAA Tournament will be as competitive as they come. Don’t expect a perfect No.1 seed-laden Final Four like that of 2008, and here’s why.
For starters, look at the volatility of this year’s AP Division I poll. In addition to the current top four, teams such as Texas, Michigan State, Villanova and Purdue have spent time within these elite ranks. Other teams such as Kansas State, Ohio State and West Virginia have been regulars among the Top-10.
At any moment, any one of these teams could steal the spotlight as national title contenders. Scottie Reynolds might just lead his experienced Villanova team on yet another run to the Final Four. National Player of the Year candidate Evan Turner may carry Ohio State all the way to Indianapolis. The Kansas State Wildcats showed they could compete with, and nearly beat, the nation’s best team when they lost to No. 1 Kansas this past January in overtime. Who says the fourth time isn’t the charm?
It could be. Truthfully, any of these teams could do it.
But there are teams outside the Top-10 that could also make deep runs this March. Take a look at some of the lower seeds and their accomplishments this year.
Maryland shared this year’s regular season ACC championship with the Blue Devils. Louisville beat Syracuse not once, but twice. Georgetown embarrassed Duke earlier this year. Pittsburgh finished second in the Big East standings, ahead of teams such as the Hoyas and West Virginia.
If nothing else, Championship Week proved the true potential of the field teams. Various conference tournaments such as the Big East’s were full of upsets and upset bids. Just to name a few—Georgetown beat Syracuse, Marquette beat Villanova and Cincinnati was tantalizingly close to beating West Virginia, the eventual champions. In the Big 12, Texas A&M kept it close against Kansas. With the SEC tournament crown at stake, Mississippi State took Kentucky into overtime and lost by just a point.
Remember, come tournament time, the winner of each game is determined by a 40-minute performance. Sure, the No. 1 teams might be better overall, but these field teams have proven that over the course of those forty minutes, they can compete with anybody in the nation.
And even after all of the above-mentioned teams, there are even those schools that rarely ever grab the national spotlight. This year, Old Dominion clinched a berth when it won the Colonial Athletic Association Conference. Though no team from the CAA has ever won the NCAA Tournament, the Monarchs showed some talent this season when they beat Georgetown in December.
Honestly, nobody will expect Old Dominion to go far. Those prognosticators are probably right. But don’t let that decision come without an afterthought—the history of this tournament is full of surprises, which only adds to the excitement.
Think back to the Big Dance in 2006, when a little-known George Mason squad out of Fairfax, Va., made a surprise run to the Final Four after defeating powerhouses Michigan State, North Carolina and Connecticut. In 2008, Davidson, led by current NBA rookie Stephen Curry, knocked off Gonzaga, Georgetown and Wisconsin before losing to eventual national champion Kansas in the Elite Eight.
So yes, John Wall might be the first pick in the NBA Draft. Kansas might boast the nation’s best center in Cole Aldrich. Syracuse may have the best record in a conference dripping with talent. But the last 18 weeks have shown that they are all fallible.
And starting today, if they so much as stutter for a moment, you can bet that one of the teams from the field will rise to the occasion and watch them fall.
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