I never thought I would hear the words “hype” and “Duke Football” put together seriously in the same sentence.
To be sure, 2007’s Abomination of the Decade, when Duke lost at Notre Dame in a battle of 1-9 teams, received plenty of hype on the blogs and on Sportscenter’s “Not Top 10” list.
Then last year, there was a little hype about the Blue Devils when they traveled to Georgia Tech in search of their first ACC road win in 17 attempts before getting trampled by the Yellow Jackets and ending most excitement for that squad.
But in just a year and a half, head coach David Cutcliffe has taken a school that some argued shouldn’t be playing FBS-level football and has done the improbable—by insisting this team has bowl potential, he has developed an air of excitement around the program.
For the first time since 1994, when Duke last played a meaningful game in December, the excitement regarding Week 1 could actually be justified.
It won’t mean much for the Blue Devils to defeat Richmond Saturday in terms of achieving their postseason goals. While it would be the first of seven wins necessary for a bowl, looking at the game in terms of winning or losing is a lose-lose situation. If Duke wins, it did what it was supposed to do and defeated an opponent from an inferior division.
If it loses… well, the buzz quickly dies, and justifiably so.
Instead, observant fans should look for the signs of success that will carry over into crucial, season-defining games such as Kansas, Maryland and Wake Forest. All those games are toss-ups that will make the difference between 4-8 and 7-5 records.
Watch how Thaddeus Lewis commands his offense—not Cutcliffe’s or offensive coordinator Kurt Roper’s, but his—in the first half. At the ACC Kickoff media luncheon in July, Lewis said he has reached the point where he’s not afraid to disagree with Cutcliffe or Roper, and he’s more than willing to call his own plays at the line instead of having them relayed to him from the sideline.
If he’s coolly staring down the Spiders’ linebackers, calling audibles every other play like Peyton Manning (another Cutcliffe disciple) to the slot receivers to run slants and hitting his men in stride as the linebackers blitz, it’s going to be a season worthy of NFL scouts’ attention for Lewis.
But if he’s calling timeout with a second left on the play clock because he didn’t pay attention, or audibles into a passing play when the Richmond defensive linemen run stunts and flood the middle of the field, it’s going to be another disappointing campaign.
Watch how the offensive linemen get out of their stances. Against the smaller Richmond linemen, they shouldn’t have problems holding their blocks. But will they be able to move the defenders at will? Can they accurately call out blocking assignments on blitzes and not let anyone in for a free shot at Lewis?
If the answer is yes, then the concerns about the offensive line will at least be lessened. The offensive line will still be overwhelmed at times—if you weigh 270 pounds in college football as an offensive lineman, there are going to be games when you get pushed around, period—but they may not be as overpowered as thought. A dominant performance against Richmond would bode well for the rest of the season.
Finally, pay close attention to how Vincent Rey leads the defense. Former All-American Mike Tauiliili had the most incredible knack for being right where the ball was going before it got there—a natural instinct that makes a good linebacker great.
Rey hasn’t proven that he’s got that same instinct, but Rey doesn’t need to be Tauiliili—and there’s no way he could be. Instead, he needs to keep his defense properly positioned to not give up the big play and make the solid tackles when the opportunities present themselves.
The goal is not to make plays—the offense will more than take care of that. Rather, it’s on Rey and defensive tackle Vince Oghobaase to make sure the opposing offenses don’t get their shots in.
Those three areas are where the real battles will be fought Saturday. Beating Richmond is by no means a guarantee, but James Madison wasn’t either. As long as Duke plays ABC football and makes the plays it has to without many mistakes, a win is probable.
But if bad habits and silly mistakes crop up again—even in a win—one could just as easily dismiss the upcoming year as just another 4-8 season.
Should Duke show some progress, though, the “Duke in December” campaign can begin in earnest Saturday night.
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