Let me start by saying that Duke looked about as good as it has all year Sunday at home against North Carolina. The Blue Devils defeated their biggest rival by playing with poise, making stops and getting into the paint at will-the marks of any championship-caliber team.
That being said, I'm not convinced that this team is championship-caliber, at least not yet.
Because in spite of how well Duke played, it doesn't change the fact that the Blue Devils were playing at home, in their gym, in front of some of the rowdiest fans in the country.
And the NCAA Tournament isn't played in Cameron Indoor Stadium, which could spell doom for Duke, which has yet to prove that it can win a big game away from home.
Sure, the Blue Devils battled back from a 17-point deficit at Southern California, but they shouldn't have been down by that much against a team that isn't even Tournament-bound.
And Duke did pull out a victory in a hostile environment against Tennessee. But while it has been surprising to see the Lady Volunteers' fall from grace, the team that the Blue Devils beat wasn't elite by any stretch of the imagination.
In contrast, in the team's biggest chances to make statement wins, it came up short on the road each time. Duke coughed up a six-point lead in the final minute of regulation to let Florida State steal a victory in overtime, and the Blue Devils wasted a double-digit advantage against the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill.
Even the road wins haven't been that pretty. Remember Duke's three-point nail-biting win over Western Kentucky? Or how about the overtime victory over North Carolina State by the same margin?
Often, the problem for the Blue Devils is that they build early leads but cannot follow through in the second half once the crowd gets into it. The offense looks good early when the team is pounding the ball inside to Chante Black, but when the opposing defense adjusts, the paint gets closed off and it's up to Duke's other playmakers to score. And the team has yet to find a second reliable scoring option.
Against North Carolina, the Blue Devils turned to Jasmine Thomas, who was able to exploit a size advantage on Cetera DeGraffenreid, who was also saddled with foul trouble all game. But Thomas, and consequently Duke, has yet to piece together two consecutive dominating performances.
For a while, Karima Christmas looked like she might emerge as the Blue Devils' spark plug after breakout performances against Stanford and Miami. But she, too, has been plagued by inconsistency.
Although head coach Joanne P. McCallie lauds the ability of each individual on the team to step up, Duke needs to have a player it can turn to other than Black in order to develop a measure of consistency. On the road, when the referees aren't always favorable and Black finds herself in foul trouble, the Blue Devils need someone else who can take the big shots when the defense is denying the ball into the post.
Until then, Duke will only go as far as Black can take it.
Until then, Duke is only a streaky team that sometimes lacks the motivation and fire necessary to make plays in close games.
Until then, Duke is not the kind of team I'd pick to win it all in March.
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