The new government brings with it a new sense of hope for change-but that optimism may not spill over into the job market.
Campbell Harvey, the J. Paul Sticht professor of international business at the Fuqua School of Business, predicts that 3 million jobs will be lost in 2009. This number is up from last year's 2.6 million, which was the highest figure since World War II.
Harvey's estimate already takes into account President Barack Obama's stimulus plan, which, if successful, will create 2 million jobs in 2009 and an additional million in 2010.
"[A] more realistic view is that Obama will get 1 million jobs," Harvey said, "Which would bring up my estimate to 4 million."
Harvey based his predictions on two main reasons. One, employment often lags behind the business cycle, and so jobs are still lost even after the end of a recession. And two, there are no signs that would indicate that the recession is nearing the end, which would include house prices stabilizing and unemployment leveling.
He added that it is important for the government to make smart infrastructure investments designed to increase long term productivity, such as broadband or basic service improvements, instead of creating jobs that only serve to keep people employed.
"By throwing money left and right it will just be wasted and get us into more debt," Harvey said.
Senior Chris Jones said the current economic situation makes him feel "a little bit on edge." Even though he originally planned to work for a couple of years before law school, Jones said he has applied for jobs as well as to law schools, and is contemplating both possibilities.
Jones, however, said he is optimistic that a degree from one of the nation's top universities will assist him in his pursuits.
"I do feel a little more confident that Duke University will provide me with networks and education that I need to succeed," he said, "Having a degree from Duke University will definitely create more opportunities that I would not have had in other less prestigious universities."
Harvey acknowledged this distinction, adding that Duke graduates have an advantage when seeking employment.
"In terms of getting a job, it will be more difficult, but you will get a job," he said, "Top university students will always be in demand."
Some students might choose to go to graduate school or choose careers like medicine, which typically offer stability even in times of economic hardship, Harvey said. Although freshmen Brandon Pierce and Brian Nielsen said they feel less affected by the economic downturn, they understood why many students would have the incentive to rethink their employment options.
"I would expect many career plans to have changed due to the recession," Nielsen added. "Three million is a staggering number, and I would definitely expect more people to apply to graduate schools, especially medicine."
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