Sen. Barack Obama claims that Iraq is a distraction from the global war on terror and that withdrawing will make the United States safer. This view not only shows a poor understanding of the current situation on the ground, but also a failure to see the bigger picture. Winning the war in Iraq is intrinsically linked to combating terrorism across the globe.
Senators John McCain and Obama agree that the war was mismanaged. That mismanagement was the very reason for the surge that McCain had the foresight to support before it was politically expedient. Unlike his opponent, McCain understands that the Iraq war cannot be wished away.
Obama audaciously hopes that an immediate withdrawal will pressure Iraqis to take responsibility for their own stability and security. But because the Iraqi government does not yet have the means to support itself, withdrawing American support will more likely create a power vacuum between Iraq's feuding sectarian groups. Impulsive and premature withdrawal would result in anarchy and civil war similar to what happened in Yugoslavia and Congo.
Withdrawing support to pressure an already fragile state would be like throwing a baby in a pool and telling it to swim. Or, for that matter, like putting Obama in the White House.
Reconstruction takes time and patience. History (and Jamie Lynn Spears) has proven that pulling out is not a reliable method. In post-WWII Germany and Japan, as well as in Bosnia and Kosovo, the United States committed the necessary time and resources to nation-building. Today, these countries are a testament to that endeavor.
Other states have failed because the world has turned a blind eye. History is rife with examples of failed states fostering terrorists-Afghanistan, Sudan, Somalia and others. A failed Iraq would be no different.
A large, resource-rich area with no functional government would attract terrorists from across the region. Think Tailgate. With guns.
A 2006 National Intelligence Estimate found that the Iraq conflict has become the cause celebre for jihadists. An unstable Iraq could also allow nuclear-aspiring and terrorist-sponsoring Iran to further dominate the region, exacerbating existing tensions.
Without an American presence in Iraq, al Qaeda and Shiite militias will have free reign to recruit and train terrorists and to plan attacks against America and its allies. As an al Qaeda media front-the Global Islamic Media-threatens, "The American occupiers will flee with their tails between their legs... and the final war will be waged on both the United States and Israel."
The presence of the American military is the only reason that terrorist groups do not control Iraq today. How can Obama reason that fewer troops can do a better job at containing and combating terrorists?
When Obama says that he wants to end this war, what he really means is that he wants to end America's involvement in the war. The senator's blatant pandering to voters will only help the terrorists he claims to be fighting.
The surge demonstrated that it is possible to win the war in Iraq. According to September's "Foreign Affairs," sectarian violence is down by over 90 percent. Now is the time to make effective compromise between Iraqi factions. Withdrawing now will not only leave an unstable government, but will reverse all of the progress that has been made in recent months.
The nascent Iraqi parliament has started to pass numerous laws geared towards political reconciliation and democratization. Local and national elections are scheduled to be held over the next year. Premature withdrawal would put the success of these elections in jeopardy.
During the 1980s, the USSR was entangled in its own unpopular conflict that, like America's war in Iraq, attracted the support of thousands of terrorists from across the Middle East. Once the Soviets withdrew, the majority of foreign-born mujahedeen also left Afghanistan. However, a dangerous cadre stayed behind. That group eventually became al Qaeda. Sound familiar?
Judging by his plans for Iraq, Obama is either ignorant to the facts or blatantly ignoring them. Now that's audacious.
Drew Keaton, Trinity '09, and Hope Lu, Trinity '09, are students in Prof. Peter Feaver's Foreign Policy and Campaigns class.
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