The gates are up, and the race is on.
With more than a year to go before Americans flock to the polls, however, the final outcome of the 2008 presidential election remains uncertain, and many political experts are beginning to look to the primaries as indicators of who will represent the Democratic Party in the general race.
Duke professors and students have begun to speculate on how the North Carolina primary will pan out, but with the date tentatively set for May 6, 2008, most said the results are currently difficult to predict.
"What happens in North Carolina is going to be influenced enormously by what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina and Nevada," political science professor David Rohde said. "It's very likely that whoever wins two or three of those early events is going to win both the North Carolina primary and the Democratic nomination."
One unique factor that will the affect the state's primary is the candidacy of former North Carolina senator John Edwards. Edwards' poll performance in the state, as well as in the rest of the South, has been superior to his showing in other parts of the country, but recent poll returns are casting doubt on his ability to win a majority of votes in his own state.
In an Aug. 2 Public Policy Polling survey of 659 likely Democratic North Carolina voters, Edwards tied Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., with each candidate receiving 29 percent of the votes. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. followed with 23 percent.
The most recent RealClear Politics average gave Clinton a national advantage over the other Democratic candidates with 37.4 percent of the votes. Obama and Edwards trailed her with 21.4 percent and 11.6 percent, respectively.
Taking the statistics into account, Scott de Marchi, an associate professor of political science, said Edwards' background in North Carolina will not be sufficient to bring him to victory.
"It's going to be tough for a person like Edwards, who is not leading in the polls or money, to go ahead," de Marchi said. "By the time [the North Carolina primary] rolls around, it's going to be tough for someone who is not an obvious frontrunner to pull it out."
Sophomore Samiron Ray, president of Duke Democrats, said Edwards' previous congressional experience will aid him in gaining votes but not necessarily enough to win the state primary.
"It will definitely help him, since it established his legitimacy and the work that he's done," Ray said. "At this point, I think that Clinton is gaining the most momentum both in North Carolina and the nation."
Regardless of who receives the Democratic nomination, however, the question remains whether this candidate will successfully take the state in the general election. North Carolina has voted Republican in every presidential race since 1980.
"There are challenges, and there is a strong Republican tradition here," Ray said, adding, however, that the possibility of North Carolina going blue is not out of the question. "Especially with the debacle in Iraq, people are getting tired of Republican politics. There is great potential for a Democratic candidate right now."
On campus, students have also begun voice their opinions about the race.
Although Clinton remains the national favorite, and Edwards has a large support base in the state, students are not necessarily following such trends.?
In a brief survey of 15 random students, of those with Democratic leanings, nine named Obama as the best candidate. Edwards was the preferred candidate of only one of the students-the same number that opted for Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, a Democratic candidate who has received far less national attention than Clinton, Edwards and Obama.
None of those surveyed favored Clinton. Some explicitly refused to support her; others recognized her as the national frontrunner.
"I like Obama the best," said sophomore Sam Halls. "But I think Clinton has the highest chance of winning."
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