After Duke's third game of the season, a win over UNC-Greensboro, head coach Mike Krzyzewski was asked about his team's inconsistency on the offensive end, specifically its occasional inability to score for long stretches.
The coach responded (I'm paraphrasing here) that maybe his team was just not a good offensive team. Maybe their inconsistency showed up when they were playing well on the offensive end, as opposed to when they were playing poorly.
He said we'd know more later in the season-we'd have a frame of reference after they had played more games together. Well, now it's later, and we have a frame of reference.
This is a bad offensive team. This is an open-shot-bricking, free-throw-shot-clanging, layup-missing, ball-movement-lacking team with no player quick enough to get to the basket or good enough off the bounce to create-and make-his own shot.
(Except Gerald Henderson, who's a freshman with asthma. And he can't bring his inhaler on the court.)
So there, I said it. It's out there now.
That being said, the Blue Devils' offense is good enough. While they are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the country, they're still 18-7. And Duke actually should be one of the lowest-scoring teams in the country because they play at an excruciatingly slow pace, which limits their shot attempts.
Using points per possession to control for Duke's slow pace, the Blue Devils score 111.7 points per 100 possessions, which puts them in the top 20 percent of all NCAA teams in terms of offensive efficiency. So as deficient as Duke is on offense, there are a lot of teams that are worse, which is encouraging.
Up to the Maryland game, in fact, Duke had been performing well on offense even during its three-game losing streak, scoring about 100 points per 100 possessions (just about the national average) in each game. And even though that is below Duke's season average, it's not terrible when you consider the fact that athletic ACC teams play better defense than the likes of Georgia Southern and Columbia.
So the problem in the most recent three-game losing streak is not on offense. It's on defense.
You probably disagree. Right now you're probably saying Duke didn't make a field goal for the last 8:42 of the Virginia game. If they had made just one shot, they would have won. And, you're probably saying, if Duke knocks down one or two of those open jumpers and free throws toward the end of the UNC game, it would've been an entirely different game. What's more, you're thinking, the Blue Devils had not one, not two, but three attempted layups to beat Florida State. They've got to make one of those.
You're right. All of that's entirely true.
But as the saying goes: If your grandmother was a man (or something like that), she would've been your grandfather. That's what I'm saying.
The fact of the matter is that Duke has hung its hat on defense all season. Like I said, Duke is not a good offensive team. Open jumpers and layups and free throws are not gimmes. If the Blue Devils aren't playing good defense, they're going to lose.
During the current four-game losing streak, Duke has allowed more than 100 points per 100 possessions every time out. Its season average is 81.6 points per 100 possessions. They've had four of their five worst games of the season, as far as defensive efficiency goes, during this four-game stretch. The only game that was worse was the loss to Marquette.
In the second half against North Carolina, the Blue Devils allowed 122 points per 100 possessions. If you're not a pace-adjusted convert, the Tar Heels scored 45 points that half, on pace for a 90-point game. In the first half against Maryland, Duke was on pace to let up more than 118 points per 100 possessions. Quite simply, the Blue Devils cannot allow teams to score like that and still win ballgames.
This is the part of the column where I should give some solution to the problem, but I don't have one. Maybe Coach K does.
Because what it looks like to me is that teams are taking and making too many open jump shots, getting to the basket too frequently and grabbing too many offensive rebounds. Basically, the Blue Devils are failing in every defensive area relative to how strong they were earlier in the season.
For two years, quick guards (see: Singletary, Sean and Lawson, Ty) and active big men (see: Thornton, Al and Gist, James) have killed Duke's defense. So maybe the last four teams Duke has played just have the type of personnel that gives the Blue Devils fits.
But that's not really encouraging either, because it's not like the five ACC games Duke has left are against teams that better fit Duke's defensive schemes.
Just to get to 7-9 in the ACC (and likely lock up a tournament bid), Duke's going to have to win two of its final five conference games against Boston College (which is first in the ACC), Clemson (which Duke only beat by two at home), Maryland, North Carolina and Georgia Tech (all of which beat the Blue Devils once already). A conference record of 6-10 might be good enough, but it might not.
Welcome to life on The Bubble. Make yourself comfortable. Because until the team's defense improves, Duke's not getting off.
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