If the first few weeks of the college basketball season are any indication of what is to come, there is going to be a great deal of excitement all the way until early April.
It's not even December yet, and seven of the preseason top-10 teams have lost a game, including reigning national champion and preseason No.1 Florida. Additionally, a team from a mid-major conference won a tournament filled with teams from the traditional powerhouse leagues.
To be fair, the Gators' loss was to a Kansas team that opened the year third in the AP poll. But the other six losses by top-10 teams-one of which belongs to the Jayhawks-were all at the hands of schools that did not even open the season in the rankings.
This may just prove that preseason polls can be taken with a grain of salt, but it certainly emphasizes the fact that this year's field is wide open, and mid-majors are going to be a factor.
In recent years, the season has opened with a clear-cut favorite to win the NCAA Tournament. Three years ago, Connecticut lived up to its preseason hype and captured the national crown, and North Carolina followed suit the next season. And despite neither team winning it all, the 2005-06 campaign opened with Duke and UConn as co-favorites to hoist the trophy in Indianapolis.
This year, however, there is no obvious standout. Florida did return all five starters from last season's championship squad and is probably still the best pick to win the Final Four and be the first team to win back-to-back titles since Duke accomplished the feat in '91 and '92. People should remember, however, that the Gators did not have to get past the Blue Devils or the Huskies last year and have already proved their vulnerability this season.
The three teams that started in the top-10 and have remain unscathed-UCLA, Pittsburgh and Ohio State-all have lots of question marks and holes to fill in.
UCLA lost star point guard Jordan Farmar to the NBA, Pitt graduated its leading scorer and the Buckeyes have only one returning starter. Further, it is safe to say OSU has climbed all the way to No. 3 in large part because it has super-talented freshman Greg Oden readying to come back from wrist surgery in January.
With no dominant force looming, it could be the perfect year for a mid-major to win the NCAA Tournament.
Butler, from the Horizon League, proved it is certainly possible after capturing an impressive title at the NIT Season Tip-Off. With the win over a field that included UNC, Tennessee, Gonzaga and Indiana, the Bulldogs vaulted themselves all the way up to No. 19 in the national polls.
The Missouri Valley Conference put its name on the map last year, sending four teams to the Big Dance and two-Bradley and Wichita State-to the Sweet 16. And the conference is off and rolling already this season. Missouri State knocked off preseason No. 9 Wisconsin, and Wichita State-now the 17th-ranked team-shocked LSU, which opened the season at No. 5.
With that said, it's anyone's championship to win this year, so sit back and enjoy the show.
Five Fearless Predictions:
Despite losing J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams, Duke reaches the Final Four for the first time since 2004.
Florida follows the Pittsburgh Steelers' lead and is terrible the year after winning it all.
Maryland wins the ACC Tournament.
Wichita State wins the NCAA Tournament.
Dick Vitale is fired.
OK, maybe that last one is just wishful thinking.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.