As the 2004 campaign draws to a close, North Carolina voters seem to be leaning the same direction they did in 2000: toward President George W. Bush.
According to the most recent WRAL-TV/Mason-Dixon North Carolina Poll, 51 percent of North Carolina voters support Bush, while only 43 percent support his challenger, Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass. Five percent of 625 respondents said they were undecided.
The statistics gathered from the poll—conducted by telephone from Oct. 18 to 19 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research of Washington, D.C.—were largely unchanged from those collected last month, when Bush led Kerry by a 9-point margin. According to Mason-Dixon’s numbers, the race in North Carolina has not been in a statistical dead heat since July, when Bush led Kerry by only 3 percent—just after Kerry chose Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., as his running mate.
The October poll shows Bush besting Kerry in voter favorability. Fifty-six percent of respondents expressed a favorable opinion of the president, while only 39 percent said they viewed Kerry favorably. The president also eclipses Kerry in five of the six geographical regions that Mason-Dixon divides the state into for surveying purposes. Bush’s lead currently ranges from a 7-point spread in the Charlotte area to 16-point differences in the Greensboro-Winston-Salem area and the southeastern part of the state.
Bush garnered support from 55 percent of men and 48 percent of women polled , compared to 39 and 46 percent, respectively, who support Kerry. White voters also prefer Bush by a 27-point margin.
But 82 percent of black voters polled expressed support for Kerry. The challenger also holds a 14-point lead among voters in the Raleigh-Durham area—one of the most populous regions in the state.
With these promising figures and the state’s nearly 46,000 newly registered Democratic voters in mind, the Kerry campaign remains optimistic about the possibility that its candidate will carry North Carolina.
Ashley Turton, deputy state and communications director for the Kerry campaign in North Carolina, pointed out that a Zogby International poll conducted Oct. 18 showed Kerry down by only 4 percent in the Tar Heel state. She also noted, however, that the campaign does not rely heavily on poll results when evaluating the senator’s prospects because poll numbers can be misleading.
For example, recent news reports have pointed out that telephone pollsters do not contact respondents via cellular phone. According to the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics, 5 percent of U.S. households only use cell phones, which eliminates them from poll lists. In addition, poll numbers may not translate into actual ballots cast Nov. 2.
Cognizant of such discrepancies, Turton said the campaign’s main focus in the days before the election is on voter outreach, not tracking polls. “We are moving forward as if we plan to win North Carolina on Tuesday, and we feel that we will,” she said.
Despite the Kerry campaign’s efforts, professor of political science John Aldrich said he does not foresee “any realistic scenario in which Kerry would win North Carolina” based on the state’s voting history and current poll numbers.
“The range will probably be 5 to 10 points in outcome, but it’s not going to get down to a nail-biter,” Aldrich said.
The Bush campaign could not be reached for comment.
On a larger scale, the most recent nationwide polls also show Bush leading Kerry by a slight margin. A Washington Post tracking poll conducted between Oct. 19 and 20 placed Bush ahead of Kerry among likely and registered voters by 50 to 46 percent. Similarly, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted from Oct. 22 to 24 indicated that the president leads his challenger 51 to 46 percent among likely voters. Among registered voters, however, Bush bests Kerry by only 2 points.
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