Is Shelden Williams suffering from Boozer’s Syndrome?
Chad Ford of ESPN.com recently ranked the top five NBA prospects at each position, placing Duke’s Shelden Williams in the middle of the pack of power forwards. I believe that Williams is being underestimated.
The reasons why experts are overlooking Williams reminds me a great deal of how Duke’s Carlos Boozer was passed over as a top prospect. Williams is suffering from Boozer’s Syndrome. He is surrounded by tremendous perimeter players who can all nail the short college three, and as a result, his touches are limited.
Williams, like Boozer, has all the physical tools and basketball skills necessary to succeed at the next level, but we only get to see glimpses of his potential at Duke. Physically, he has good height, long arms and broad shoulders—he is listed at 6-foot-9, 250 pounds. He is not afraid to bang around the basket, gets well above the rim and is quick on his feet. His post moves are deceptively quick, and he is fast enough to run the floor and get easy baskets off the break. Williams can finish around the hoop with either muscle or touch. He has a nice midrange stroke that has looked better each season, and his jumping ability allows him to finish strong on one end and swat shots at the other. Those of us who watch him regularly know what he is capable of on any given night.
Williams will be a solid pro like Boozer. It is easy to see why Boozer was taken 35th in the draft, after averaging 15 points and 7 rebounds per game. Williams’ numbers are comparable to Boozer’s, and his shot-blocking ability is a major plus considering he was Duke’s fifth scoring option behind Luol Deng, J. J. Redick, Daniel Ewing and Chris Duhon. Given that he took 138 shots fewer than Luol Deng, his scoring average is not bad at all. In fact, he led Duke in scoring seven times and put at least 20 points five times, against teams like North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Virginia. Often Williams was his own worst enemy, however, landing himself on the bench in early foul trouble.
If Williams can stay out of foul trouble this year, the extra minutes should equal extra looks and extra big numbers. Even if his foul troubles persist in college, the problem will be mitigated in the NBA by the extra foul allowed and looser officiating. He must develop his midrange game for the NBA, but since he has not had a chance to show it at Duke, we don’t know if it is there. The same thing happened to Boozer playing with players like Jay Williams, Shane Battier and Mike Dunleavy.
Williams’s numbers suffer because Duke’s backcourt is filled with McDonald’s All-American sharpshooters like Redick and Ewing. Although he averaged only 26 minutes per game during the 2003-2004 season, the junior dominated the paint defensively, averaging three blocks and 8.5 rebounds per game. Offensively, he put up 12.5 points per game, shooting 59 percent from the field.
Williams’s season is comparable to, if not outright better than, Ford’s fifth-ranked prospect, Ronny Turiaf of Gonzaga. In 27 minutes, the junior averaged 1 block and 6.4 rebounds per game—not exactly what I would call dominating for a power forward in any conference, not even in the West Coast Conference. Turiaf averaged 15.5 points per game, shooting 53 percent and putting up 9.6 field goals per game. Turiaf shot slightly better than Williams from the line.
Meanwhile, across the country, Williams is playing in the best conference in college basketball night in and night out, going against the likes of Eric Williams, Sean May and Luke Schenscher. The only stat Turiaf has on Williams is a few more points per game, but he was the Zags third scoring option and Williams was Duke’s fifth.
Hopefully, this prediction pans out and in the spring of 2006 or 2007, I will be basking in glory as everyone declares what a steal Shelden Williams was going at the 35th pick. And for Williams sake, I hope he will be basking in the sun he signs a $68 million contract in 2008.
Josh Dell is a 2004 graduate and former manager of the men’s basketball team.
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