Some thoughts on the men's 2004 NCAA tournament:
* Those of you expecting a tough second round matchup between Duke and Arizona will not see the hyped Lute Olson-Mike Krzyzewski matchup. Instead, a hard fought battle between Duke and Seton Hall will be seen on CBS Saturday. The Pirates are not underrated for their seed, it's just that Arizona will continue their long history of underachieving in the tournament. Aside from the 1997 National Championship team that took the entire country by surprise, the Wildcats have ended nearly every tournament with a loss to a lower-seeded team. Besides the '97 anomaly, can you name a year Arizona overachieved in the tournament?
* No. 1 seeds Stanford and St. Joseph's will not advanced past the Sweet 16. Both teams played cup-cake schedules, and will be run-over once either team faces a squad from a major conference. Both schools will most likely face a team from either the SEC, the ACC or the Big East by the Sweet 16, squads hardened from vigorous league play.
* Quick teams will be the schools that succeed most in the tournament. While the NBA's playoff system's is set up to be a marathon, the college game is a sprint. In the professional game, teams with bulky players can wear down smaller opponents. In the college game, this grind-out is far less successful in a tournament where the champions play in less games than some NBA squads do in one series. This allows for quick teams to merely blast by their heavier opponents.
Stanford in 2001 gained a No. 1 seed by bullying around teams in the regular season with their exceptionally large front-line. In the tournament the Cardinal was eliminated in the Elite Eight to a Maryland team that simply out-quicked the giants from Palo Alto. Schools with quick guards, such as Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Maryland, Oklahoma State and UConn should meet, if not exceed their tournament expectations because of their perimeter and foot-speed advantage.
* The 2004 field is as wide-open as any year largely due to the many early exits from star players from big-time programs and the several players who by-passed college all together. Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, T.J. Ford, Dajuan Wagner, Amare Stoudemire, Caron Butler, Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Ed Curry and Zach Randolph would all still be playing in college were it not for the temptation of millions of dollars in the NBA. This has made the gap between the players at major programs and the athletes at less well-known schools much narrower. The top schools still excel more, but it should come as little surprise that Gonzaga and St. Joe's received some of the bracket's highest seeds. Those two schools aren't the only two capable of matching up with the titans of college basketball; there should be more upsets than ever by some of the nation's least well-known teams.
* Of the 65 teams, Duke has the best shot at reaching the Final Four. The Blue Devils' sophomore class is the best in the nation (unhurt by the NBA like most other top schools), the squad has the best freshman in the nation in Luol Deng (yes, that's right Mr. Humphries), and the Blue Devils have a senior leader (Chris Duhon) capable of willing his team to the championship. Most past champions have had a senior that entire team's have united behind, winning the tournament for their departing teammate. This can be seen recently in the Shane Battier-led 2001 Duke squad and the 2002 Maryland team captained by Juan Dixon. It could be seen again.
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