Although a recent study by the College Board and Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education estimated that the number of high school graduates will reach 3.2 million by the 2008-2009 school year, Duke's undergraduate population may not see a change in numbers, but perhaps increase diversity.
This developing peak in high school graduates was based on birth rates, migration patterns and school enrollment. The study indicates that from 2001-2018, the influx of high school graduates will be primarily in the South and Southwest regions, with other areas actually seeing a decline over this same period.
Director of Undergraduate Admissions Christoph Guttentag explained that the admissions department is always looking at various recruiting practices to determine how to allocate resources more effectively and that the demographic trends cited in this study may influence such decisions.
"I don't expect it will radically change our practices, but over time we'll want to respond to the changes in where potential students live," Guttentag said.
David Jamieson-Drake, director of the Office of Institutional Research, explained that the size of the incoming class is determined not by the number of applicants but rather the difference between what the Trustees establish as the ideal size of the student body and the number of upperclassman that remain on campus, taking study abroad and early graduation into account.
"In order to maintain the high quality that Duke has to offer, factors such as class size, dorm availability and transportation need to be considered, as well," Jamieson-Drake said.
This study also predicts a rise in the percent of minority high school graduates. From 2002-2014 it is expected that there will be a 73 percent increase in Hispanics, 6 percent increase in African Americans and an 11 percent decline in Caucasian graduates.
This anticipated rise in high school graduates is attributed to increased intervention efforts to keep kids in school, especially among students from minority groups who have shown higher drop out rates in the past, said Jane Worsham, executive director of the North Carolina State Board of Education.
Guttentag said the increase in minority high school graduates will have a positive effect on the Duke environment as it has in the past.
"Clearly Duke is a significantly more diverse place economically, geographically and racially than it was 15 to 20 years ago, and I think the University is better for it," he said.
Guttentag said that the rise in the number of minority students will mean an increased opportunity in terms of both recruitment and the nature of future classes.
"The potential for positive change, including a stronger and more diverse applicant pool and entering class, is an exciting possibility," Guttentag said. "It will only make the admissions process that much more challenging.
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