Times change. When you think of near-perfect seasons and predictability in the NCAA tournament, you probably imagine women's basketball. But this year, things should be different.
No team has lost fewer than three games this season and the once-dynastic Huskies have lost four contests, equal to their loss total for the last three years. Does this mean Connecticut is getting worse? Not necessarily. It is an indication that the rest of women's basketball is catching up to the learning curve. With names like Penn State, Kansas State, Purdue, Texas and Duke, the women's basketball world has become much more interesting.
In the East region, Penn State took the top spot, leaving UConn in unfamiliar second seed territory. Each will come across roadblocks UNC, Notre Dame and Houston, but both teams will prevail to the Elite Eight. UConn has the experience and the talent to breeze past the first few rounds. Penn State surprised many this season, and with one of the hardest schedules, the Lady Lions have been put to the test and performed well enough to gather the No. 1 seed.
"[Penn State] deserved it," Duke's Alana Beard said. "I know UConn is a household name, but it's not about the name."
When Penn State meets UConn in the Elite Eight, it will be the ultimate test for the Lady Lions. And though we'd all love to see Diana Taurasi and the rest of the Huskies miss their flight to New Orleans, Penn State just doesn't have enough of a well-rounded game. They rely heavily on outside shooting, and with the Huskies' defense, they may find trouble sinking the threes. The Huskies have two advantages working for them. They will be playing close to home in Hartford, Conn. and they have been there before, many times. UConn has not missed a Final Four in four years, and will do everything in its power to keep it that way.
In the Mideast and Midwest regions, there are more definitive favorites. Duke may find a stumbling block in Texas Tech, but the Blue Devils are playing at the top of their game right now. Kansas State, Duke's likely opponent in the Elite Eight, will also present a bit of a challenge, but as long as the Blue Devils can continue to produce offensively throughout the games, they will get to New Orleans. With one of the most talented starting five, Duke is a pretty clear choice for the Final Four.
Similarly, Tennessee won't have too much trouble in the Midwest. Though the absence of Loree Moore has been a noticeable blow, the individual performances for the team have given this Tennessee team the edge throughout the season. As long as each member continues to produce and contribute to the team effort, Tenessee will continue to advance. And barring more injuries or a freak lightning storm, they will make it to the Final Four as well.
And that leaves the West region, the most difficult region to forecast. While Texas has had some superb wins over fellow No. 1 seeds Tennessee and Duke, they have tough road ahead that potentially includes Purdue, Villanova, Georgia and LSU. The biggest defensive concern the Longhorns have encountered this season is turnovers, which will become the determining factor in close games. Texas has pressure in the paint, but if Stacy Stephens is stifled, it will be hard for the Longhorns to produce the wins.
While somewhat inconsistent this year, LSU has what it takes to get to the Final Four. A highly athletic and talented team, the Lady Tigers have been kept under the radar for most of the season, but they will come up with the upset in the Sweet 16. Though they lack a strong post presence, the Lady Tigers make up for it in sheer athleticism and skill. Sophomore guard Seimone Augustus, who averages 18.5 points and 6.1 rebounds per game, could take this opportunity to shine. The team, however, relies heavily on jump shots; so, they will need to put up a better fight in the paint in order to get past Villanova or Purdue in the Elite Eight.
The Duke-UConn meeting in New Orleans will be yet another intense meeting between the two powerhouses. While the Huskies have consistently outplayed the Blue Devils in each of their meetings, Duke is playing at a new level now. Coming off of the ACC Tournament wins and a terrific season, Alana Beard, Iciss Tillis and Vicki Krapohl will see it to the end.
"We have to play well for all 40 minutes [of each game]," Lindsey Harding said. "So, it's just finding a way for us to start quick, and I think we will with our three seniors, knowing it could possibly be their last game."
Between Tenessee and LSU, the edge goes to Tenessee because the Lady Vols' aggressive and suffocating defense will keep LSU's shooters at bay.
The 2004 NCAA Tournament Champion? Duke, and for two reasons. No. 1: The Blue Devils will not have to deal with Moore this time around, and No. 2: It's about time.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.