Following the Wisconsin primary Tuesday and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's exit from the race, the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination finally withered to a virtual two-person contest between Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts and Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina.
With his usual healthy dose of optimism and tenacity, Edwards--more viable than ever after his surprisingly strong second place finish--declared now a pivotal moment in his campaign.
"I've been looking forward to the time when this is a two-person race," Edwards said in a CNN interview Tuesday night, even before Dean had announced his withdrawal from the race. "The more focus I can have on Senator Kerry and myself, the better for my campaign."
With a last-minute increase of support among independent, Republican and undecided voters in Tuesday's open primary, Edwards garnered 34 percent of the vote, finishing just behind Kerry's 40 percent. The close results defied most polls, which had projected Kerry winning by a landslide.
"It was a great showing of strength for Senator Edwards," said Ed Turlington, chair of Edwards for America. "In Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Oklahoma and now Wisconsin, there have been tremendous surges [of support] in the last week. It's because the more people get to know Senator Edwards, the more they want to vote for him."
The Edwards camp is now reaching out to former Dean supporters, and Turlington said it is confident it can gain their votes because Edwards presents "visions of reform and changing Washington" similar to Dean's projections for the future.
Political science professor John Aldrich, however, said that whether the Dean fallout will help or harm Edwards remains to be seen.
"It certainly simplifies things," Aldrich said. "While Dean was not winning, he was carrying some constituencies. Now it's just head-to-head. But unlike a lot of the times where it's clear where [a drop-out's] supporters will go, I think Dean supporters are up for grabs and may go for either Kerry or Edwards."
Now gearing up for "Super Tuesday" on March 2, Edwards is focusing more than ever on "drawing distinctions" between himself and Kerry, attempting to criticize his competitor while at the same time retaining his trademark positive tone. He has called for a debate with Kerry in Georgia and has denounced his rival's support of free trade.
Despite the confidence the Edwards camp exudes about its candidate's prospects of defeating Kerry in debates and primaries in the coming weeks, Aldrich pointed out the most obvious obstacle Edwards faces: Kerry is still winning.
"Kerry already has a lead in delegates," Aldrich said. "Even if [he and Edwards] tied from here on out and split the delegates, Kerry would win. So Edwards has to calculate some way to get ahead."
Ted Benson, chair of the Durham Democratic Party, said Edwards may also face financial challenges in the upcoming primary states.
"A lot of the early money went for Dean, now a lot of the establishment money is going to Kerry," Benson said. "Realistically, where is Edwards' money going to come from? There's only so much money out there. It is a huge political challenge to pull off a win in states like California or New York without that money."
Turlington, however, said that on Wednesday alone, Edwards's campaign raised $750,000, a sign that its moneymaking abilities are strong. He also pointed out that paid advertising will not be the only avenue for publicizing Edwards to voters.
"Even though advertising is important, with only two candidates, the free press coverage on TV and in the newspapers will increase," Turlington said.
After 17 primaries and a month of candidates dropping out as their support dwindled, some Democratic critics have called for Edwards to follow suit and allow the party to unite behind Kerry in preparation for the general election. Aldrich, however, said that prolonging the largely positive contest could actually improve the Democratic nominee's chances in the fall, whoever that nominee might be.
"It keeps focus on the Democratic candidates rather than [President George W.] Bush," he said. "That's the strongest reason for staying in... keeping the media's attention in this period is important."
Despite this possible benefit, Aldrich said that Edwards still needs to look realistically at his chances of winning the Democratic nomination, particularly after the 10 primaries on Super Tuesday.
"If he absolutely wins no states, then it is a good time [to step out]," Aldrich said. "Over half of the delegates will be chosen by then and he'll be running out of opportunities."
With Super Tuesday and the other March primaries looming only days away, Edwards has pushed criticism aside and focused his attentions on communicating his platform to voters. Turlington said that for the Edwards camp, the race against Kerry is far from over; in fact, it has only just begun.
"If we were playing a football game, we would only have played one quarter, and who would call off a football game after only one quarter?" Turlington asked. "There are still millions of people to vote in the upcoming primaries and caucuses in March."
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