Predicting the Oscars is a lot like playing Texas Hold'em. Fantasy movies are a 2/7 offsuit; actors who wear extensive makeup and/or feign mental illness are pocket rockets; and Harvey Weinstein (founder of Miramax) is the Hollywood equivalent of Chris Moneymaker, that lucky, greedy bastard. Even if you know the basic strategy, it doesn't make the betting any easier.
For instance, even ridiculous luck like Moneymaker's had to run out eventually--and this year Miramax's Cold Mountain got seriously snubbed. Oscar golden girl Nicole Kidman failed to get nominated; director Anthony Minghella got left in the cold; and the movie was ignored in the Best Picture category. But don't feel too sorry for Mr. Weinstein just yet: Foreign contender City of God's Fernando Meirelles was nominated for best director, and Master and Commander was nominated for several awards including Best Picture (both are Miramax films).
Though in the past the fantasy-stigma has been too much for any film to overcome, this year the Academy can't avoid giving the Best Picture Oscar to Return of the King. Besides, the competition just isn't that good: Lost in Translation is too artsy, Master and Commander too disjointed, Seabiscuit too dull and Mystic River too gloomy. ROTK is the perfect balance of great story, exquisite cinematography and stellar ensemble acting. After two years of disappointment, Peter Jackson and his fantasy world of elves and hobbits will finally get their due.
As for the performance awards, Charlize Theron is a dead lock for best actress for her portrayal of serial killer Aileen Wuornos in Monster. Her fabulous performance includes the three key components of an acting Oscar: Weight gain? Check. Make-up? She's unrecognizable. Mental illness? Does portraying a serial killer count? It seems like the star of Mighty Joe Young is a shoo-in, although in Recess's opinion, 13-year-old Keisha Castle-Hughes' less-flashy performance in Whale Rider is just as impressive and equally deserving.
In the Best Actor category, no one can top Sean Penn's eerily compelling performance as the grieving-father-turned-vengeful-killer in Mystic River. He mourns, he cares, he provides, he kills and he generally succeeds in making the audience feel as if there is nothing sacred and holy in this world, so they might as well just end their miserable lives.
Best Director is the most wide-open category right now. Will Peter Jackson be rewarded for his hard work on the Lord of the Rings trilogy? Will the Academy recognize Peter Weir's stellar directing on the tricky Master and Commander? Will the Academy favor the new it-girl Sofia Coppola or their beloved Clint Eastwood? It's impossible to guess, and predictions are futile anyway. And, let this commentator add, it doesn't even matter. The Golden Globes are a thing of the past, and the Nickelodeon Kids' Choice Awards aren't for another two months.
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