I'm going to have to admit I'm a bit jealous of my boy Matt Sullivan, who infuriated Duke basketball fans from here to Bangladesh by declaring in this space last week that this year's men's team isn't Final Four material. But in light of the fact that (a) baseball season's over, and I have to think about something--anything--else, and (b) I have the opportunity to ingratiate myself to Duke alumni the world over (one word: job), I'm going to take Mr. Sullivan to task and valiantly come to the rescue of Duke Basketball Nation.
So, ahem, I present you with...
Why Duke will make the Final Four:
First of all, let's take a quick trip back through recent Blue Devil lore. Coach K has brought in premiere recruiting classes three times in the past seven years. When Elton Brand, Shane Battier and William Avery hit town as freshmen, Duke won the ACC but lost in the second round of the tournament; the next year, as sophomores, they ransacked college basketball before losing to Connecticut by three points in the championship game. Jason Williams, Mike Dunleavy and Carlos Boozer replaced Brand and Avery in the Gothic Wonderland the following year and won the ACC before losing in the Sweet 16; as sophomores in 2000-01, they brought home the title. Last year, Duke brought in a six-man recruiting class some called the best in history; this year, as sophomores...
Starting to see the pattern?
Moving on, there's the small fact that these Blue Devils are, frankly, loaded. What does this squad lack? Duke's got game inside, outside, above the rim, below the rim, young, old--you name it. It's true that Duke will be playing small much of the time, but if you have an arsenal loaded with Chris Duhon, Daniel Ewing, J.J. Redick and Luol Deng, are you supposed to keep it under wraps? If you have four of the better guards in the country, you run 'em out there.
And it's not like the Blue Devils lack muscle inside when they need it; a bulked-up Shavlik Randolph and an older, wiser Shelden Williams should provide a formidable presence, with Nick Horvath and Michael Thompson serving as very competent backups, a luxury Duke has not had in recent years. Assuming Randolph and Williams make the typical sophomore leap, Duke will have an inside threat when it has the ball, and an awful lot of fouls to give when it doesn't.
Aside from being strong inside and out, the Blue Devils have the type of depth not often seen on a Coach K team. Unlike the 2000-01 championship squad, which won despite a glaring lack of depth, and the 2001-02 club, which lost in large part because of it, this year's team can legitimately go ten-deep without turning to big men who have bad hands.
Another fact that bodes well for Duke is that when you get right down to it, there really aren't too many teams around that look very imposing. All 15 of the players named to last season's three All-American teams have left campus, meaning that a new crop of players will fill the void. And with Duhon, Ewing, Redick, Randolph, Williams, and Deng, Duke has plenty of ping pong balls in that lottery.
Yes, UConn will be good, but even if you grant that it's better than Duke--which I'm not ready to do--by my humble count, that's just one team better than the Devils. Aren't there still three spots left in San Antonio?
As for our not-so-friendly neighbors down 15-501, Ol' Roy's certainly got himself a nice squad; the Tar Heels should once again challenge Duke for ACC superiority. But the Tar Heels are standing on thin, thin ice--or, rather, Sean May's shaky, shaky left foot.
The Blue Devils are likely to face the Tar Heels three times this year, and, sure, it's doubtful they'll sweep; but are you really telling me that UNC can make it through all three games without May or Felton getting in foul trouble or hurt? Either of those guys go down, and Ol' Roy's gonna be in a world of pain. Can you name one Duke player whose injury would send the season down the drain?
So even if UConn is better--a big "if"--and even if Providence shines upon UNC, that is, at best, only two teams on Duke's level. Who else can compete on an even keel with the Devils? Michigan State? Nonsense. Arizona? Doubt it. Kansas, Missouri or Florida? Fat chance.
When it comes down to it, barring a Blue Devil hiccup in the tournament, we could be looking at a rematch of the classic Duke-Connecticut title game of five years ago. This time around--knock on wood--Duke will get it right.
Ted Mann is a Trinity senior and associate sports editor. His column appears every third Tuesday.
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