President George W. Bush will give his third State of the Union address Tuesday night, and as he does his main task will be to convince the nation of the need to invade Iraq, University professors said this week.
The speech comes at a particularly significant time for the president, said Bruce Jentleson, director of the Sanford Institute of Public Policy. He noted that Hans Blix, head of the United Nations inspection team working in Iraq, told the U.N. Security Council Monday that Iraq has failed to cooperate fully with inspections, possibly boosting Bush's argument for war.
"The thrust of what Bush says will emphasize the severity and immensity of Saddam's threat," Jentleson predicted.
Peter Feaver, associate professor of political science, said that he expects the topic of Iraq to comprise about half the speech.
The other half, he said, will likely be spent on domestic issues such as the economy, Medicare and health care.
Feaver said recent opinion polls reveal that the general public is still not convinced of the need for war with Iraq, and that many people question why a war cannot be delayed.
"The people want more of an explanation on why this war and why now," he said.
However, Feaver added that people are generally more inclined to support Bush if the country goes to war. Despite Americans' reluctance for military action, he said, a majority of people - and, in fact, an historically remarkable number - are open to going to war.
Jentleson said that perhaps Bush's biggest problem will not be convincing Americans to use force, but convincing them to use it judiciously.
A one-time foreign policy adviser to former vice president Al Gore, Jentleson said the best strategy for the United States would be to "get strong international, multilateral support and not go it alone."
He said that the real question behind the war with Iraq is how it will contribute to national security.
"Will it help us or hurt us in the war on terror?" Jentleson asked.
In addition to addressing national security, Bush may try to reassure Americans about their economic security. The president introduced a major economic stimulus package earlier this month, and many expect Bush to use his majority in Congress to push health care legislation.
Donald Taylor, assistant research professor of public policy studies, said he expects the president to address health care issues and the economy. Taylor said that Bush's new Medicare plan will not end up saving money in the long run unless a large number of people move to HMOs.
However, he thought the plan would be overshadowed by Iraq.
"The economy is what most people are thinking about, but Iraq is where he has to get the people to follow," Taylor said.
Frank Sloan, J. Alex McMahon professor of health policy and management, said that the new Medicare plan is partially a move for reelection, but not entirely. The president is "trying to get a handle on an increase in Medicare by privatizing. He believes this will save money and bring better care to patients."
Regardless of how effective the Medicare plan is, Taylor said that everything the president does has to do with reelection. For example, he said, "the last three sessions of Congress have started with a strong consensus of a prescription drug plan."
Feaver said that Bush has tried to follow through with his original campaign promises.
"[Bush] started his reelection campaign during his inaugural address," Feaver said. "First-term presidents are always running for reelection, and they know from the beginning that they need to have a strong record in order to do this."
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